Do you believe in the Pittsburgh Pirates? That is a question mainly for Mets fans.
If you don’t believe in the Pirates, why should anyone believe in the Mets? They have similar records and similar run differentials. The baseballprospectus.com playoff odds gave the Mets a 2.6 percent chance to reach the postseason entering the weekend while Pittsburgh was at 1.4 percent. Neither is exactly run-to-Vegas odds.
So if you believe in the Mets, you should believe in the Pirates, right?
This is mainly offered as an exercise in clear thinking as the July 31 trade deadline nears. I am asking Mets fans to see the team’s condition with their heads rather than their hearts. You have the same record essentially as the Pirates. A computer system that offers no bias suggests that if this season were played 100 times, the Mets would make the playoffs on just two or three occasions.