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Momentum Going into Sweet 16

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The kenpom crowd, by now, is well-versed in matters of teams’ full-season efficiency ratings. Ohio State is the nation’s No. 1 team in efficiency, due in large to its dominant defense, and Kentucky is No. 2 because of its dominant offense. If the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight were to play out according to big-picture efficiency projections, the Buckeyes and Wildcats would be in the Final Four along with Michigan State and Kansas.

But in forecasting the next rounds of the NCAA tournament, we should also be taking into account how well teams are playing over the past few weeks. Who’s surging, who’s stagnating, and who may have peaked too soon? Over at Crashing the Dance in 2009, Andy Cox devised a way to gauge teams’ quality of play...

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