NFL general managers looking for an edge in next week’s draft scour folders thick with information and base their decisions on the slimmest of margins — a tenth of a second in the 40-yard dash, an extra inch in height, the last 5 pounds on a barbell being bench-pressed two dozen times or more.

But a provocative new study suggests an almost surefire way for any GM to maximize the value of his pick: Choose a player who’s already had a run-in with the law.

“So if you’re on the fence about a player and worried about his criminal record,” said Stephen Wu, an economics professor at Hamilton College in Clinton, N.Y., “the data says take a chance.”

That sounds strange, but makes sense when you consider the study found that players with so-called “character issues” get drafted, on average, 15 to 25...

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