If you're picking someone other than the Toronto Blue Jays to win the American League East, you're out there on your own.
You might also be right. Rays? Sure, it's possible. Yankees? Yes, absolutely. Red Sox? Go ahead and laugh at that one. Boston general manager Ben Cherington has had himself a terrific offseason.
Orioles? Let's answer that one with a question. Did any GM do a better job than Dan Duquette did in 2012? There you go.
Between Duquette's brilliant, low-cost, low-risk moves and manager Buck Showalter's magic at making it all work, only a fool would count out the Birds.
So there you go.
Welcome to the American League East in 2013.
It isn't the prospect that any of its five teams can finish first that really emphasizes how good the division is. It's the fact that one of them is going to finish last.
That's the tough part, because these are all good teams, and all of them will begin Spring Training fairly confident about the season.