July 02, 2008
O.J. Mayo Will Not Be A Star
By Jeff BriggsIn his column on Tuesday, posted here at RealClearSports, Gregg Doyel made a rather bold prediction:
So I'm saying it right now. The best player to come out of the 2008 NBA Draft won't be Derrick Rose. Won't be Michael Beasley, either. It'll be O.J. Mayo, and frankly, it might not be close.
Doyel makes the claim that Mayo will be an absolute star in the NBA. In fact, he's so confident that he says Mayo "will mash rest of draft class into a pulp" - in the title of his article. This is when Doyel and I differ. Greatly. Not only will Mayo not be the best of the 2008 draft class, but he will be a complete bust.
Doyel says of Mayo, when comparing him to Brandon Roy: "The better the game, the better they become."
This statement makes the claim that Mayo will be at his best in the NBA, where the level of play is much higher than that in college. But what did Mayo ever do to indicate he's a big-game performer? In both the Pac-10 final (against UCLA) and the first round of the NCAA tournament (against Michael Beasley and Kansas St.), Mayo went 6-for-16 (37.5%) from the field. In the two games combined, Mayo shot 30% from beyond the three-point line, and didn’t make a big impact with assists or rebounds. Oh, and his team, USC, lost both games.
To his credit, in the game against UCLA, Mayo did score seven points in a row late in the action, but at the end of the game, O.J. Mayo did what O.J. Mayo will continue to do in the NBA: he tried to put the game on his shoulders. With his team trailing by three, Mayo dribbled-down the shot clock, and attempted a game-tying, contested three-pointer with two seconds on the clock. And he missed.
On the one hand, yes, it's great to have that confidence, to be able to take the game on your shoulders, and wait for the last second, confident you will make the shot. Doyel says, "Mayo has the guts to shoot the most difficult shots and the ability to make them."
But that's the problem with Mayo: he has the guts, but not the ability. Mayo does not seem to realize that he is not in high school anymore, and that he is no longer the best player on the court. Mayo’s sense of entitlement and immaturity have led him to believe otherwise, and his shot selection has suffered as a result. Watch any of his college games and you'll see that Mayo doesn't have anything that resembles shot selection, as he puts up one difficult shot after another. Mayo thinks he can do everything on the court, and unfortunately for him, he doesn’t have the size, nor the skill, to play as big as his head.
Doyel compares Rose to Jay Williams and Beasley to Rodney White, but Mayo has an even better comparison -- and its not a comparison to, as Doyel argues, Brandon Roy. Instead, the better comparison to O.J. Mayo is another 6’-5” USC guard who was anointed to NBA greatness before showing he deserved it: Harold Miner.
They have similar numbers from their freshmen years: 20.6 ppg, 47% from the field and 42% from three for Miner; compared to 20.7, 44% and 40% for Mayo. The similarities, however, go beyond numbers. Both players were the focus of an unreal and maybe unfair amount of hype. Miner was one of the first players prematurely given the title of “The Next Jordan”; in fact his nickname was “Baby Jordan." Meanwhile, Mayo has been hailed as a great NBA superstar since he was featured in Sports Illustrated at just 14-years old.
Will Mayo flare out as quickly as Miner did? Who knows for sure. But the similarities are worthy of acknowledging. Both players entered the NBA with pressure and expectations of greatness.
Miner, who's most notable pro-accomplishment was winning the Slam-Dunk Contest twice, quickly wilted under the pressure and lasted just four years in the league. "I always felt the worst thing to happen to Harold was the 'Baby Jordan' tag," said George Raveling, Miner's head coach at USC.
If Mayo wants to avoid the same career as Miner, he needs to soon realize that to make it in the NBA, he'll have to alter his game. But perhaps more importantly, if Mayo hopes to succeed at the next level -- and prove his doubters wrong, myself included -- he needs to accept his limits and avoid buying into his own hype.
