October 05, 2008
Vegas Hates the Redskins
By Jeff PyattThey stand 3-1. They climbed this week to #5 in the RCS Power Rankings Average, our collection of power rankings from across the Internet. And they're fresh off defeating the team that those rankings nearly unanimously considered the best team in the NFL.
And yet, when the betting line was posted for today's game against the 2-2 Philadelphia Eagles (#10 in the RCS rankings), the Skins were 6-point dogs.
Oddsmakers are giving only four teams more points: Seattle, Cincinnati, Kansas City and Miami. Teams with a collective record of 3-11.
So this begs the question: Why does Vegas hate the Washington Redskins?
The Power Rankings, on the other hand, love the Redskins. To Power Rankers, their record is justification alone for their ascension of 17 spots in three weeks. In each of the last three weeks, the Redskins have beaten a higher-ranked team and been rewarded for it.
But to gamblers, their record is a short series of flukes favoring a still unproven team. After all, this is an organization with a new coach, a young QB, and an ineffective if not incompetent owner, playing in the toughest division in the NFL, and plagued with a recent history of raising hopes before crushing them.
To gamblers, Washington's defense, ranked only 14th in NFL, depends too much on the big play. Can the Redskins still win if Chris Horton (3 INTs) and the defense don't create turnovers?
And the offense depends too much on avoiding mistakes. Can they still win if Jason Campbell starts to make them?
And more abstractly, gamblers feel, that the "maroon and black," under the helm of first year coach Jim Zorn and owner Dan Snyder, is somewhat of a joke. This feeling was articulated by Tim Cowlishaw of the Dallas Morning News in his column prior to the game last week against the Cowboys. He argued that the Redskins present such a small threat that the Cowboys and their fans might have a tough time motivating themselves:
For Cowboys fans right now, "hating" on Zorn might be almost as hard as "hating" on Norv. The only current Redskins' symbol that generates much passion might be owner Daniel Snyder, but it's not like anyone fears him.He's more laughable than anything else.
And this game has the potential to be a laugher. It has been a while since the Redskins represented one of those teams the Cowboys had to reach to find extra motivation.
Maybe Zorn and Campbell are in the process of changing that. Maybe those home wins over New Orleans and Arizona are more impressive than I think.
But I doubt it.
Well, to quote PTI's Tony Kornheiser role-playing with a Popsicle stick glued to a Styrofoam Zorn cutout, "Who's laughing now?"
Contrary to the beliefs of Cowlishaw and the gambling consensus, the Redskins are a good team. Even though the defense is ranked only 14th, they've played the Cowboys, Saints, Giants and Cardinals -- the NFC's top four offenses. Against the rest of the league, these teams averaged 403 total yards, but only 315 total yards versus the Redskins -- an 88-yard average improvement over the league.
And on offense, Campbell, Clinton Portis, and Santana Moss are among the NFC's top five at their positions.
Cowlishaw, nonetheless, does make a legitimate point, although unintentionally. If the rest of the league continues to perceive the Redskins as a joke, Washington will continue to have a Sun Tzu-esque deceptive advantage: Even though you are competent, appear to be incompetent. Though effective, appear to be ineffective.
So it is with the Redskins. They are effective. They are competent. And, because of how they are perceived, have benefited from the Vegas' hatred and the deception of low expectations.
And if the Redskins continue to win games as a heavy underdog, Vegas may begin to hate the Redskins for a completely different reason.
