October 10, 2008
We Dream of Dodgers-Sox; We'll Get Phillies-Rays
By Jeff NeumanIt’s déjà vu for the Red Sox in the ALCS: For the fourth time in ten years, they made the playoffs as a wild card and now must face the team that topped them in the American League East.
Of course, this time there’s no Bambino Curse involved, no hundred-year-old rivalry to renew. The Tampa Bay Rays were barely born when the twentieth century ended, and their winning tradition dates back only to April. Yet the Rays will be a formidable hurdle for Boston’s efforts to be the first back-to-back World Series winners of the new millennium.
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For the first ten years of its existence, the Tampa Bay franchise was baseball’s worst-case scenario. Stuck in a hideous dome in St. Petersburg, saddled with ownership that ranged from underfunded to overbearing, the former Devil Rays won as many as 70 games just once, and finished last in the league in attendance seven straight years. Questions were raised about whether the Tampa Bay area would support a major-league franchise, but since they’d never seen one it was hard to judge. Even in this breakthrough season, the Rays failed to draw two million fans, ranking 12th in the league in attendance.
The club is built around a core of young pitchers; not a single game was started this season by a pitcher older than 26. The big three of Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza benefited from a vastly improved defense to post ERAs in the middle 3.00s. Carlos Pena demonstrated that his exceptional 2007 was no fluke, and Evan Longoria is a certain Rookie of the Year and likely MVP candidate for many years to come. In its mix of pitching, defense, and just enough offense, the Rays are reminiscent of the similarly surprising 1969 New York Mets, a team that came from the depths of the league to win 100 games and a World Championship.
Boston comes into the LCS with a few issues. Third baseman and 2007 World Series MVP Mike Lowell is out for the series, moving Kevin Youkilis to third and putting Mark Kotsay or Sean Casey into the lineup; the defensive loss is small, but the offensive one is not. Josh Beckett looked tentative in his ALDS start against the Angels, though Jon Lester showed he’s ready to step into Beckett’s role as a cold-blooded stud. The series is likely to be decided by the performance of Justin Masterson, Hideki Okajima and Manny Delcarmen, the bridge between the starters and closer Jonathan Papelbon.
If Tampa Bay’s inexperience was going to be a factor, it would have shown up by now. The Rays won from in front, and withstood a challenge from the Red Sox down the stretch, taking two of three from Boston in September series at both parks. The pick here is Tampa Bay in six.
The last time the Phillies faced the Dodgers in the postseason, their heroes included Hall of Famers Mike Schmidt and Steve Carlton. That Phillies team had two other players who now boast Cooperstown plaques (Joe Morgan and Tony Perez), and one all-time hit leader who would be in the Hall except for you-know-what.
Unlike last year’s three-and-out playoff flops, this Phillies team is neither surprised nor just happy to be in the postseason. They can strike fast; every starter except catcher Carlos Ruiz hit double-figures in home runs, led by Ryan Howard’s 48 and 33 each from Chase Utley and Pat Burrell. Jayson Werth has shown a flair for clutch hitting, and Shane Victorino was the offensive key against Milwaukee in the NLDS. Their pitching may be vulnerable under postseason pressure, however: Cole Hamels is emerging as a big-game pitcher, but Jamie Moyer got past the sixth inning in just one of his last seven starts, and Brett Myers has the talent of an ace but the composure of an adolescent. The bullpen showed a knack for keeping things exciting around Citizens Bank Park, with the exception of closer Brad Lidge, who converted all 41 of his save opportunities.
The Dodgers were puttering along around the .500 mark at the end of July when the front office traded for Manny Ramirez. The 36-year-old slugger put an immediate jolt into the lineup, batting .396 and driving in 53 runs in 53 games. The Dodgers were treading water, however, until an 18-5 surge starting August 30 drove them past the Arizona Diamondbacks to their pennant clinching. In past years manager Joe Torre has been reluctant to rely on young players, but in September he recognized the futility of playing Juan Pierre, replaced the middle-infield statuary of Jeff Kent and Nomar Garciaparra with Blake DeWitt and Angel Berroa (awaiting the return of Rafael Furcal), and rode young hitters James Loney, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier to the division title.
The starting pitchers are a mix of veterans (Derek Lowe and Hiroki Kuroda) and youth (Chad Billingsley and top prospect Clayton Kershaw, whose curveball was nicknamed “Public Enemy No. 1” by Vin Scully in the spring). The bullpen is deep, but closer Takashi Saito was left off the LCS roster due to an elbow injury; hard-thrower Jonathan Broxton can handle the ninth inning, but the shift leaves the Dodgers weaker in the seventh and eighth.
A hot Manny can carry a team against anybody, but Philadelphia’s offense is more diverse, and the Phillies should move on to their first World Series since Joe Carter closed the show against Mitch Williams. Phillies in five (much to the dismay of FOX, which is no doubt dreaming of an LA-Boston matchup).
