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US Open Preview: Another Federer/Nadal Final?

By Tim Joyce

Before viewing the draw for the 128th edition of the US Open tennis championship which starts on Monday, I would have said there was no chance that Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal would meet in a Grand Slam final for a remarkable eighth time. With Nadal still not 100% following his battle with tendonitis, I doubted his ability to play two weeks worth of best-of-five matches. But after perusing the draw, there is a chance - however slim - that yes indeed, the two men who have engaged in the most riveting Open Era rivalry will battle for Gotham's major title.

The reason? Quite simply both got lucky with the draw, with Federer being especially charmed. The Swiss master should proceed through the first 10 days of the tournament with little or no drama, with the semifinals being the first time he should encounter a significant test. And Nadal should reach the quarterfinal round before facing adversity.

But it won't be as easy for the other top seeds. I wrote in a column last week that there would be two unlucky members of the Big Four (Federer, Nadal, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic) who would have the misfortune of having to play either Andy Roddick or Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarterfinals. And the duo presented with the more exacting routes to glory in New York are Murray and Djokovic.

The second seeded - and last year's finalist - Murray has the most difficult path to the finals. As it looks now, the Scot would likely meet the hard serving, six foot ten Ivo Karlovic in the third round - never a welcome assignment. After that he'd likely play that other player from Switzerland, 19th seeded Stanislas Wawrinka, a solid player in his own right. And then Murray would take on Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarterfinals. This would be a repeat of last year's quarters when Murray defeated the Argentine in four close sets. Though Murray holds a four to one advantage head-to-head, Del Potro is poised to finally score a win over a top ranked player in a Slam. But he must prove he has the stamina that has been lacking in prior events. The winner of this dynamite quarterfinal tussle would likely take on Nadal.

For Novak Djokovic, who has lost to Federer the last two years in the finals and semis respectively, the road to another Slam final is fraught with difficulty. While he should cruise relatively easily into the quarterfinals, he would then engage in another repeat quarterfinal from last year when he'd encounter Andy Roddick. There was controversy surrounding their match last year, as Djokovic, after defeating Roddick, made light of comments he had perceived as derogatory from the top-ranked American. If this match does take place, you can mark it down for either Wednesday or Thursday night of the second week.

This anticipated match-up may not occur as Roddick has an extremely treacherous draw filled with obstacles. Tough contests loom for the sure-to-be crowd favorite who is seeking to follow up his heartbreaking Wimbledon loss with a second Slam title, which has proved so elusive. The possible players who could give him a tough time include - Dmitry Tursunov in the second round, hard serving American John Isner in the third round, Tommy Haas or Fernando Verdasco in the round of 16 and then that quarterfinal against Djokovic. If this were any other tournament I'd say this would be too much to ask of Roddick. But since he is so at home in Flushing, I believe he'll reach the final eight.

For the third ranked Rafa Nadal, the draw proved to be somewhat kind. The Open has been the least successful Slam for The Man from Mallorca. His finest showing was last year when he reached the penultimate round before being upset by Murray. This year, it'd be surprising if he doesn't make it to the second week with little problem, even with his unsure knees. In the fourth round, Nadal will likely meet fellow Spaniard David Ferrer or Frenchman Gael Monfils. Nadal has strong records against both players - but Ferrer would pose the bigger test, having defeated Nadal several times on hard court including at the US Open in 2007, but he's not as strong a player as he was two years ago.

If form holds, Rafa would then battle Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Fernando Gonzalez in the round of eight. Though Nadal has won three of their four meetings, Tsonga is a significant threat and he does own a Grand Slam win over Nadal, having beaten the southpaw in the 2007 Australian semifinals. But if Nadal were to advance to the second week, I'd expect his confidence to grow exponentially with each match. Nadal has had little trouble with Gonzalez in recent years, having won five in a row against the Chilean armed with the lethal forehand.

The only possible matches of interest for Federer would be a fourth round battle with James Blake - who is nowhere near his prime of a few years ago - and a quarterfinal against either American Sam Querrey, the tall Californian who has made huge strides in the rankings this summer or the man Federer beat to claim his first French title, Robin Soderling. But I doubt either would cause much havoc in Roger's world.

PREDICTED SEMIFINAL MATCHES:
Roger Federer vs. Andy Roddick
Rafael Nadal vs. Juan Martin Del Potro

Now, choosing the finalists from this quartet is conjecture at its most difficult. If Roddick were to survive his brutal draw, would that leave him too exhausted - or would it inject him with more confidence that he'd need to take on Federer? Would the adrenaline he'd surely possess in high quantity work for or against him? For Federer, do the easier matches make him less prepared when he has to play Roddick? I doubt it but sometimes it helps to have an unexpected challenging match or two. And for Nadal and Del Potro it's about fitness. If Nadal's knees hold up then I can see him in the final. Del Potro, were he to make a final would be a huge question mark as the US Open has that inane scheduling of the final less than 24 hours after the semifinals are completed. I don't trust Del Potro's fitness enough were he to play in his first Slam final.

Whatever the case, expect the last week to provide the finest in tennis entertainment. The US Open is overdue for drama, especially when it comes to the finals. There has been only one five set final in the last 20 years and only 6 in the Open Era. Consider - in the same period, there have been 14 five set title matches at Wimbledon, including the last three years running. But if Nadal is healthy and Murray remains focused and Roddick stays confident and Djokovic plays to his talent and Del Potro doesn't tire and Federer - well Federer will be Federer ... then it could be the finest Open in years. And I believe it will be.

 

Tim Joyce provides commentary and reporting exclusively for RealClearSports. He offers a refreshing perspective, countering the prevailing hyperbole of contemporary sports parlance.  His work has appeared in Tennis Week, Yahoo and MSNBC, and he was a double-award winner in the 2009 10th Annual U.S. Tennis Writers' Association Writing Contest.  Tim was also a contributing researcher for the Baseball Hall of Fame. Email: joyce.timothy@gmail.com

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