There has been much talk recently of how a trio of stellar Yankees - Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada (and you could make it a quartet by throwing Andy Pettitte in there except for his three years in Houston) - have stayed together for 16 years on the same team. And it is pretty remarkable and actually unprecedented in the modern era of free agency for this to occur. It's a testament to the strong organization that Gene Michael and Buck Showalter built way back in the early 1990s.
And it's interesting to note that in 1996, the first year they won the World Series with this group and started a mini-dynasty, not many predicted the Yankees would make the playoffs that year as Boston was the preseason divisional favorite.
Of course in the ALCS against the Orioles that year, the legions of Yankees haters still cry foul recalling the gift that Jeffrey Maier gave the Yankees when he caught a ball seemingly headed for the glove of Tony Tarasco, snatching away a potential Baltimore victory in Game 1.
However, what so many forget is Baltimore's gift to the Yankees late in the regular season in 1996.
The Orioles had a strong August and September to overtake the Seattle Mariners, who seemed ready to make the postseason for the second straight year, by two games and claim the wild card slot. For if not, as honest Yankees fans should have the guts to admit, I doubt the Yankees would have beaten Seattle that year.
After all it was in October 1995 that, until the Greatest Choke of All Time against Boston in 2004, Seattle inflicted arguably the most gut wrenching and utterly devastating wound in Yankees postseason history when they came back from a two games to none deficit and swept the final three games of the divisional series to stun the beloved Don Mattingly and the Yankees, who had thrilled their fans by reaching the playoffs for the first time in 14 years.
Yankees followers can likely summon up the image of an exhausted David Cone after he walked in the tying run in the eighth inning on his 147th pitch before manager Showalter mercifully replaced him with some young unknown kid named Mariano Rivera (Rivera would pitch two-thirds of an inning, striking out one before being taken out for Jack McDowell, who would go on to lose the game in the 11th after the Yankees had gone ahead in the top of the inning).
Including those three victories in the 1995 playoffs the Mariners won 12 of 15 against the Yankees through 1996. And half of those victories were by wide margins. Yankees fans at the time can surely remember clearly the feeling of utter trepidation when the Bronx Bombers went up against that vaunted Seattle lineup. It seemed nearly impossible to get through Ken Griffey, Jr., Edgar Martinez and Jay Buhner unscathed.
I got to thinking about all of this recently after glimpsing Griffey a few days ago as he winds down his great career. And then the "what if" thoughts came in a torrent … what if the Mariners had put together a run of championships with all that talent; what if that Mariners murderer's row of Griffey, A-Rod and Martinez had stayed together past 1999 and were then joined by Ichiro; what if Randy Johnson (perhaps the all-time postseason Yankee killer) had other help in the starting rotation; what if the Mariners had a more reliable bullpen; and finally what if Ken Griffey Jr. hadn't been so injury prone and he had been able to amass even more awesome statistics - would he be the all-time home run king?
Now the "what if" pondering can be rather pointless in sports and life because, as the saying goes, it is what it is. And injuries happen. But sometimes it's too tempting to ignore, and in Griffey's case, the numbers indicate that he'd be approaching Hank Aaron in the final stage of his 22-year career that he is fittingly ending in Seattle.
The player whose name is most often stated after a "what if" is uttered is doubtlessly Ted Williams. The greatest hitter of all time lost nearly five years of games while he served our country with valor in two wars. Williams biographer and baseball historian John Holway told me that in his estimation Ted would have clobbered another 200 homers for a career total of 721. It seems an entirely legitimate number considering that his lost years were in his absolute prime.
With Griffey, his lost games were scattered across the breadth of his superb career. And taking into account that he put up these numbers while never being suspected of taking steroids like the other power hitters (Canseco, McGwire, A-Rod, etc) in the juiced era of the 1990s-2000s displays how powerful he was at his best. Combine the prolific offensive stats (yes, his OBP wasn't especially great and he struck out a lot without walking enough, but still …) with his acrobatic, fluid defense and powerful arm one can immediately remember what a splendid talent Griffey was.
I decided to come up with a reasonable, conservative final figure for Griffey had he not missed so many games. Using 150 games as an average for a season - allowing days for minor aches, rest, etc. - I examined those year in which he played in fewer than 150 games and then added up how many games Griffey has lost to injury in his career. Then I took an average of homers per games in each season and came up with a number of possible missed HRs for each year. If things had worked as such, Griffey would be around 730 HRs right now (he's actually at 630, still quite an imposing feat) and there'd be must-see TV viewing to watch him chase the great Aaron (it's a tribute to his health that Aaron was rarely hurt in his career).
Year Games Games Missed HR HR RATE EST. HR'S MISSED
1992 142 8 27 5.25 1
1995 72* 63 17 4.23 15
1996 140 10 49 2.85 3
2000 145 5 40 3.62 1
2001 111 39 22 5.04 8
2002 70 80 8 8.75 9
2003 53 97 13 4.07 24
2004 83 67 20 4.15 16
2005 128 22 35 3.65 6
2006 109 41 27 4.03 10
2007 144 6 30 4.8 1
2008 143 7 18 7.9 1
2009 117 33 19 6.15 5
TOTAL 100
*1995 is calculated with an average of 145 games played due to the strike so I figured on 135 games that season Griffey would have played.
Whatever the final number turns out to be the future first ballot Hall of Famer will always be known as one of the great home run hitters. And yet this discussion will take another turn in a decade's time as Griffey's actual or projected homer numbers might be left in the dust as we'll be witnessing Albert Pujols - who is the modern day Aaron with his eerie consistency and rarely being injured - mounting his assault on Aaron's record. The way he's going now, Pujols will have 400 home runs by the end of this year, at age 30.
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