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Federer's Loss Should Surprise No One

Contrary to initial reports, this was not a shock. In fact, it was somewhat expected. Especially after Roger Federer's struggles early in the tournament.

Indeed, those tough first two matches of this fortnight proved to be a foreshadowing of the darkest Wimbledon that the brilliant Roger Federer has experienced, as 12th seeded Tomas Berdych outhit, outplayed and, most surprisingly, outmaneuvered the great Federer and defeated the six-time champion, 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4, to advance to the semifinals for the second straight Slam event.

Though after the match Federer mentioned a sore leg and back that has been hampering him of late - the first many have heard of this - it shouldn't diminish how thoroughly Berdych controlled this match.

The matched seemed to be decided when Berdych, serving at 3-3, 0-40 in the fourth set, saved all three break points, the last on an at-the-ankles volley that seemed to signal the end for Federer. And even more impressive was the mental strength exhibited by Berdych. In the past, the Czech native would often allow self-doubt and frustration to emerge and overwhelm him during the biggest matches. There was no evidence of such on yet another hot London afternoon. Obviously, the confidence Berdych gained by defeating Federer on hard courts in Miami this year paid great dividends.

Another strong suit for Berdych is his dramatically improved footwork. In the past, top players routinely withstood the expected forehand and serving assault from Berdych by waiting for him to tire or hitting behind him, wrong-footing the tall man (he's 6'5"). Yet it was Berdych who made several crucial on-the-run passing shots Wednesday which clearly unnerved and surprised Federer.

Also unusual in this match were Federer's weak second serve offerings. An aspect that has made Federer so utterly dominant in his singularly prolific career - and equally overlooked - has been Roger's ability to apply pressure with his second serve. In his loss to Berdych, the ball would sit up and allow Berdych to apply immediate pressure with the return. Federer is not accustomed to having balls shot back to him with such pace and was clearly taken aback by it today.

For this columnist and fan, I was reminded of the similar pattern that crept into Pete Sampras's game in the final stage of his career. The last three years that Sampras played on tour, he no longer had the bite on his second serve, which allowed Lleyton Hewitt and Marat Safin to defeat the Californian with ease at the 2000 and 2001 U.S. Open finals, respectively (of course Sampras came back to win the U.S. Open in 2002, the grandest farewell for an athlete I can think of).

With Federer not being able to cruise on his service games of late, he tends to go for more during rallies, hence the increase in unforced errors. It can be argued that no player has ever blended offense and defense so splendidly as Federer. But now it's his defense that often wins him matches, though it wasn't enough today.

To say this is the beginning of the end for Federer may be a tad premature. But any notion that he can dominate for an extended period again should be shuttered. Again, when talking about Federer, it's entirely relative - in fact relativity was invented for such prowess. Winning one Slam and then falling in the quarterfinals in the next two, his worst such record at back-to-back Slams since early 2003 (which is what Federer has done this year) is a fantastic accomplishment for nearly everyone else. But when the bar has been raised so high, such a precipitous decline in production cannot be ignored.

For the 24 year old Berdych, he is finally reaching the potential that so many have predicted for so long. One must remember that it was Berdych - not Rafael Nadal - who was supposed to be the main threat to Federer after Berdych beat the Fed at the 2004 Olympics in Athens.

Since that initial victory over Federer, Berdych had languished in the top 20, seemingly lacking in the motivation essential to rise to the elite in the sport. Blessed with a super-fluid powerful forehand and an equally effective serve, it seemed odd that he never made a significant attack on the Federer and Nadal fortress these last five years. But now that all seems to have changed. After a superb French Open, Berdych will now take on Novak Djokovic with a chance to appear in his first Slam final.

Award-winning columnist Tim Joyce provides regular commentary for RealClearSports. His work has also appeared in Yahoo.com, MSNBC.com, and Tennis Week. Email: joyce.timothy@gmail.com

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