January 4, 2011 |
There comes a point in every baseball season when it is apparent where the excitement will emanate from as the pennant races heat up and generate significant interest. This year is no different.
This is in part due to the weighted divisional schedule - one of the few positives of Bud Selig's reign - which guarantees that teams in the same division will play each other numerous times late in the season.
In fact, all the divisions look to be exciting down the stretch except the American League West, where the Rangers have kept a stranglehold on first place and show no signs of wilting in the brutal Texas sun. One of only two teams (the other is the Nationals) to have never made the World Series, the Rangers will look for a chance to secure home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs.
The Yankees and Tampa Bay should battle for AL East supremacy, as they'll meet seven times in 10 days in mid-September. That stretch will undoubtedly decide the division. The Red Sox don't appear ready to contend for the division title, their hope likely resting with the wild card. They're currently five back of Tampa Bay in that race. But it will be difficult to make up ground on the Rays because the teams meet only three times in the final five weeks.
Chicago, Minnesota and Detroit are engaged in the tightest divisional scrum, with just three games separating them. And September will be intense. The trio of Midwestern teams will meet often that month, with Detroit facing off a dozen times against its two rivals, Chicago having 10 and Minnesota eight.
In the National League Central, St. Louis leads Cincinnati by one game. Unfortunately, they are the odd teams out regarding the schedule. They face one another only three times after Aug. 11. So both cities will be in constant schedule-watching mode the rest of the way.
Bobby Cox, in his 25th and farewell season with the Braves, has his team 4 1/2 games up in the NL East on the two-time defending league champion Phillies. In what may be his best managing effort yet, the 69-year-old Cox seems destined to make the playoffs again. He has blended future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones, among other veterans, with standout youngsters Jason Heyward, Martin Prado and hard-throwing but erratic Tommy Hanson. But the Phillies have been hot of late, winning their last five, and with the two rivals set to meet the final three days of the season, the division seems destined for a tight finish.
But without question, the NL West will be the scene of the most tension as the Padres, Giants, Dodgers and Rockies fight it out. Just look at the number of times the teams will face off in the last month. San Diego will have 19 of its last 30 games against its three rivals, San Francisco 19 of 31, Los Angeles 21 of 34 and Colorado 21 of 36.
A quick glance at the standings would seem to refute that the division is up for grabs. San Diego has a lead of 3 1/2 games over San Francisco, six over the Dodgers and eight over the Rockies. So why would this division qualify as the most likely place for late-season drama?
The NL West has been close all year, with this being the largest gap yet. This is thanks in some part to San Diego's road schedule. The Padres have played 48 road games, including 24 against teams with winning records. Contrast that with the Rockies, with 34 of 52 road games against teams with winning records, the Giants with 32 of 53 and the Dodgers with 29 of 46, and this is a significant reason the Padres have maintained their slim margin.
Another barely noticed aspect to San Diego's scheduling advantage was in interleague play. The Padres played nine of their 15 interleague games against Seattle and Baltimore, plus three each against Tampa Bay and Toronto. The Padres cleaned up with a 9-6 record. Compare that with the Dodgers, who had to play the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels and Tigers, all contending teams. Los Angeles finished with a weak 4-11 record in those games and relinquished control of the division to San Diego.
I believe the division will start to shift and bunch up in August. San Diego will have to deal with a grueling run of 17 of 20 games on the road. By the end of that month, I'd guess that at least three of the four teams will be within four games of the division lead.
The Rockies have been perhaps the most curious team thus far. Their ace, Ubaldo Jimenez, was the story in all of baseball the first half of the season. He accumulated an extraordinary 15 wins by the All-Star break and seemed a sure thing for the Cy Young Award. But since then he has been less than stellar, sometimes downright awful. His once unbelievable ERA is still a respectable 2.75, but he has suddenly had control issues, walking batters in bunches.
It has been pointed out lately that the last two pitchers with 15 wins at the midway point, David Wells and Greg Maddux, struggled the rest of the way. This much is certain: If Jimenez doesn't regain the dominant form he displayed in the first three months, the Rockies' season is over, no matter whom they acquire by the trade deadline. Still, manager Jim Tracy has presided over some extraordinary winning streaks with his team, so they can't be counted out.
The Giants are perhaps in the best position to overtake San Diego or at the very least secure the wild card, for which they currently hold the lead. Armed with the best pitching staff in the National League, especially since Tim Lincecum has recovered after a miserable May and early June, the Giants will be the team least vulnerable to a losing streak.
In addition, they have a rookie sensation in catcher Buster Posey (one of the best baseball names around). Posey is hitting .368 with a .404 on-base percentage, so the Giants do not have to scratch out victories solely dependent on their reliable starting rotation.
The last factor that will make watching the NL West so fulfilling is the Giants-Dodgers rivalry. Belying the mellow Left Coast stereotype, these teams provide a much-needed facet to the game - pure hatred. Since the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry has turned into a mutual-admiration society, the Giants and Dodgers provide the last vestige of congenital venom.
This was exhibited most recently a week ago when a few hit batters and a shrewd bit of gamesmanship by Giants manager Bruce Bochy raised the tension that much more. Dodgers manager Joe Torre should consider himself lucky that he has experienced the two fiercest rivalries during his managerial stints. Let's face it: We all like a good fight, as long as no one gets hurt.
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