Phil Mickelson had another good showing at the Northern Trust Open last week, nearly pulling off the impressive Pebble Beach/Riviera double. He got into a playoff with a birdie putt on the final hole but came up short on the second extra hole, losing to Bill Haas.

The message of his efforts is loud and clear:

Lefty has it together again. He has straightened out his flaws, has gotten control of the driver, is scrambling well and is ready to have a big, big year.

That's what I keep hearing, anyway. I might have put it a little differently:

It's February.

I started thinking about the pattern of Phil's seasons about a year ago, when one of the commentators at the Waste Management Open in Phoenix said, "It's looking like a good start for Phil Mickelson, and when Mickelson has a good start, he usually has a good season."

The thing is, Mickelson usually does have a good start, and sometimes that start constitutes his good season.

Nearly half of his 40 career PGA Tour victories - 18 of them - have come in January or February. Throw in his two March victories, and Mickelson has picked up half of his wins in less than a third of the PGA Tour calendar.

In 14 of his 20 full professional seasons, he has won in the first two months. It's not just a question of his playing more tournaments then, either. His winning percentage is a lot better in the winter than the summer:

Mickelson's April figures are boosted by three Masters victories and four wins the week before it as part of his preparation. The November blip represents one victory in seven events.

The raw victory totals for him, month by month:

Getting back to the initial question: Does a good start indicate good things to come for Mickelson? A further question would be: What is a good season for him?

Mickelson's first tournament as a pro was the 1992 U.S. Open. He has had only two full professional seasons without a victory. He has won one tournament four times, two tournaments eight times, three tournaments twice and four tournaments three times.

In his five "good" seasons (three-plus wins), he wins early, with at least one January/February win every time. But he usually wins early in his "bad" (one-win) and "average" (two-win) seasons too - 2-for-4 and 6-for-8, respectively.

There are a number of possible reasons for this pattern. Mickelson often emerges from his offseason having dedicated himself to improving his fitness level. Many of us find it difficult to keep up such resolve as the year goes on. This would be consistent with hot starts and slow fades.

Another explanation may be geographical. Mickelson grew up on the golf courses of Southern California. He's comfortable with the conditions there, and he developed a game suited to its climate and grasses. Fully three-quarters of his wins have come in four states: California (13), Georgia (8), Arizona (where he went to college, 5) and Texas (4).

Whatever the reason, he can consider himself fortunate that, despite the best efforts of Commissioner Tim Finchem and FedEx, the golf season is not structured like other sports, with the events gaining in importance as they build toward a climactic playoff conclusion at the end of the year. A win in January counts as much as a win in September, and the money spends pretty well too.