ATP Tennis 360

September 13, 2009 12:56 PM

It will be another Federer-Nadal final?

H2h are 8-4 in Federer's advantage, but the first four happened when Djoko was little more than a kid. Federer appears anyway the favourite. Firstly because he hasn't lost at Flushing Meadows since 2003 (to Nalbandian). Secondly because here this year he showed glimpses of a perfect tennis, above all against Soderling in the first two sets (match completed with 28 aces) and hasn't lost his serve since the third round against Hewitt. The Serb has never been convincing, neither against Verdasco, beaten more from his aches than Nole's game. In this fundamental (return to second ball) Djoko is better than Roger, who in turn is a more efficient returner to first serves and, anyway, has more strokes to make defensive situations turn into attacking opportunities.
Bet: Federer in four

Nadal-Del Potro
Nadal is 4-2 up in the h2h but has lost in the last two times the two have met each other. Even considering not so meaningful the defeat in Montreal, with Nadal returning from a long injury, the match played in Miami, with Del Potro coming back from 2 breaks down to seal the victory in a third set tiebreaker, gives more useful suggestions. That match, in fact, is played on the best of three distance, and in contests like that the Palito from Tandil is favourite. But when the match is 3-out-of-5, Rafa has more aces. If the first semifinal will be more skilled, more technical, this will be a physical, agonistic clash: and in fighting Rafa has no rival in the circuit. Rafa won't have an easy duty. He shall tame Del Potro's serve (and it's never easy) and he shall be able, during the rally, to play deeper than he did in last matches to maintain Del Potro well behind the baseline profiting from his extrem top-spin forehands and, possibly, sometimes try one-handed chopped backhands, like Cilic did in the first two sets against JMDP making him mad. While Palito could benefit from his great returns (and Rafa has in the serve the strokes of relative weakness): he shall risk more and remain calm if this strategy won't have immediate results. Nadal shoud search percentage more than direct points on serve. In the end, he will win who will be abler to nail his adversary to the backhand diagonal, the less preferred by both players.
Bet: Nadal in four

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