The First 20 Games - Phillies Style
If you're a phan of the Philadelphia Phillies, I'm sure you've waivered this season between confidence and worry. Will Oswalt hold up? Why are the Phils hitting fewer home runs? Where did all the power go? Why isn't the team stealing more bases? Or playing more smallball?
Well fans, you're either not seeing things with clarity, or you are viewing the play of the Phillies through the negative prism of that radio station on the left end of the Philly dial.
The fact of the matter is, as of this posting, the Phillies have the best record in baseball at 15-6; they lead the Atlanta Braves by five and half games; they lead their division by a game and a half; their stud starting five are a combined 10-4 with an ERA of 3.47; and the team has 5 shutouts, tops in the majors.
Simply put, the current Phillies team is the best team in baseball. It is however, a different type of team than those teams that have taken the field the previous five years.
Hitting is no longer the backbone of this team, pitching is.
Below are some comparative numbers through the first 20 games of this year and last year. At first glance, the hitting numbers might be cause for alarm. But study the numbers closely, and you might see something that will put your mind at ease.
W L Pct. W L Pct.
Phillies 14 6 .700 11 9 .550 +3
Runs Against 68 84 -16
Run Difference +24 +23 +1
Singles 131 119 +12 (+23)
Doubles 31 43 -12 (-8)
Triples 3 4 -1 (-1)
Home Runs 15 20 -5 (+1)
RBI 89 99 -10 (+5)
Extra Base Hits 49 67 -18 (-8)
Shut outs 5 2 +3
ERA 3.10 4.06 -.94
Earned Runs 63 79 -16
Games Giving Up 5+ 6 10 +4
As you can see, the power numbers are down, and rather dramatically. It appears that the Phillies lost a lot of power with the departure of Jayson Werth and the injury to Chase Utley. And not just home runs. As Mike Missanelli of 97.5 The Fan was the first to point out, the Phillies are not hitting any doubles either. They have 18 less extra base hits than this time last year, and that extrapolates out to over 160 less extra base hits over the course of an entire season.
But is this bad?
No.
Why?Because the pitching has improved more than the hitting has declined; so much so, that victories are up 21%, the team's ERA has declined almost a full run, and in fact, if you remove the three shaky starts by Cole and Blanton (Cole, 2.2 innings, 6 ER, Blanton, 4.1 innings, 7 ER, and 6 innings, 5 ER) the team ERA drops from 3.10 to 2.43. So for 17 games, the Phillies pitching has allowed 1.5 runs less than last year.
So even though the run production and power numbers have declined, the pitching and runs allowed have improved more, resulting in more wins and a greater run differential. And if you don't think run differential is important, click here and notice the numbers in green under the heading DIFF. Notice anything?
Listen, it would be nice to have more dingers, right? Chicks dig the long ball and all that. But winning with pitching is just as satisfying as winning with hitting.
For those of you still not convinced that the team is okay, look at the numbers in the far right hand column inside the parenthesis. They are the projected numbers the Phillies would have if Chase were healthy. Once again Mikey Miss and the lack of doubles jumps out at you, but other than that, all would be well. And oh yeah, Jayson Werth through 18 games is hitting .214 with 3 HR and 5 RBI. This extrapolates to 27 HR and 45 RBI over the course of a full season.
Also keep in mind Phanatics, the Phillies are a late summer, end of the season team. They heat up when the temperatures rise and build for a postseason peak. This year is no different, except for the fact that this team is better overall, with much better front line pitching and a little less power than the previous years. They are though, off to a much better start and are built for the long haul.
Prior to the season, expectations were high. If the first twenty games are any indication, said expectations should be realized.
