Though their statistical records are less than stellar, the Royals' front office is trusting two longtime righthanders Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies to be the front of a rotation with the primary goal of pitching well enough to prevent long term embarrassment to the franchise.  History says: that's a tall task.  Hochevar clearly has the ability to be an above average major league quality starter and one of the pillars of the future Royals rotation, but, his career to date lies somewhere between replacement level and average major league starter.

Davies, alternatively, pitched well enough at a meaningless juncture of last season to receive an arbitration-avoiding contract from the Royals this year, while the team opted to non-tender Brian Bannister for the (completely legitimate) crime of not being a better pitcher than Kyle Davies.  Of course, a closer look would suggest that while Davies has now been unable to get his ERA under 5.00 in back to back years, he's actually become a pretty decent major league pitcher, just one who is prone to the occasional abondonment of control.

Davies improved his walk and home run rates in 2010, while his strikeout rate held steady.  And for Luke Hochevar, 2010 was an injury-shorted half-season, but one that may have represented a "breakout" season -- at least the start of one -- nonetheless.  Hochevar didn't improve his rates overall (his HR rate went way down while his walk rate actually increased), but Hochevar started to finally strand some baserunners in 2010, and established himself as a firm no. 2 pitcher in the rotation.

This year, Luke Hochevar has to play the role of the number one pitcher.  Hochevar merely has to prove that his rate numbers from 2010 can be sustained over the course of a long season, and then he will have earned his way into discussions for a long-term contract to stay with the Royals.

For Davies, this could be his final shot at holding a spot in the major league rotation.  Kyle Davies has made improvements in his career before, but he's never sustained such improvements.  Royals fans thought Davies to be an excellent no. 2 or 3 option after his 2008 season where he went 9-7 with a 4.06 ERA.  There's no doubt that when Kyle Davies keeps the ball in the yard, he pitches like a solid major leaguer.  But I'm not a believer that Davies understands how or why he loses his command and starts giving up the gopherball.  I think with Kyle Davies, it's a function of luck and that his true skill level lies in the vicinity of 5.00 runs/9, and that he's a barely above replacement pitcher.

With all the focus that will be paid to Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen -- lefthanders on $2 million, 1-yr contracts -- it might be easy to miss the make or break year that both Hochevar and Davies are facing, albiet at different points in their career.  The Royals need to see the potential manifested in both of them, and they are running out of time.  Here's to hoping that Hochevar looks the part of an ace this year in anticipation of all the pitching arms coming up from the farm system in 2012, and that Davies can figure out out to keep the ball on the ground, marginally increase his strike out rates, and induce pop-ups to keep the ball in the park and -- finally -- establish himself as a quality member of the Royals' pitching rotation.