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Great Lakes Royals


March 10, 2011 2:39 PM

More Likely Future Royal: Gordon or Ka'aihue?

Alex Gordon

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Yesterday's Billy Butler article comes with one more obvious point that must be made.  If the Royals end up getting major league contribution from every member of the trio of Wil Myers, Mike Moustakas, and Eric Hosmer (or really, even without Moustakas), that means that the Royals cannot continue to play Alex Gordon and Kila Ka'aihue in the same lineup for as long as they will be team controlled.  And because the team needs it's answers on it's hitting prospects, let's face it, it's really a competition for 2011 between the two left-handed hitters to prove their value to the team.

It's the million dollar question: do you believe in Kila Ka'aihue, Alex Gordon, or neither?

I think I know where the Royals stand.  They still view Alex Gordon as a major league regular.  And they're just not sure what they have in Ka'aihue.  The move of Alex Gordon to left field was the team's attempt to try to work him into their future plans.  But that move could ultimately be the thing that does Gordon in, for good, in Kansas City.

I believe two things about Alex Gordon's first four years in a Royal's uniform: 1) that he, by virtue of his strong 2008 season (the best year the Royals -- as a team -- have had since 2003), he already proved himself as a major league regular who deserves the benefit of the doubt on a losing team, and 2) that Gordon's problem is that people continue to expect him to live up to the promise of being the number one rated prospect in baseball in 2007, and that 1600 career PAs (as well as diminishing youth) suggests than Alex Gordon's pros and cons, alike, are commonly known.

Whether Gordon plays third base or left field on the current Royals team is irrelevant -- saying otherwise is a fundamental misunderstanding of positional value.  Gordon's batting runs created will not be altered by where he is going defensively the next inning.  But because Moustakas has already, in effect, forced Gordon to switch positions, Gordon isn't going to settle in to a role or bench position on a contending team.  He's either going to need to improve his ability at the plate and let his offensive value contribute to the team as one of the first six hitters in the order, or the Royals would be better off giving up on him and giving the plate appearances to someone else.

Someone else, like Kila Ka'aihue, perhaps?  To be sure, the Royals would much rather Gordon hit like a left fielder and that Ka'aihue hit well enough to bring something back in a trade.  Otherwise, if Kila hits well enough to get a big money extension (and Butler already was extended), then the Royals could find themselves delaying Eric Hosmer's major league ETA trying to teach him to play left field with his athleticism as Gordon merely eats plate appearances.  I think for that reason (and plenty of others) that the Royals don't really believe in Kila as a major league regular.

Kila's small sample MLB numbers are actually worse than Gordon's in a significantly larger sample.  Ka'aihue has hit .224/.314/.398 in 206 plate appearances.  Gordon, for his career: .244/.328/.405.

Of course, the Royals didn't believe Billy Butler would ever play the field well enough to justify keeping him, and they've apparently now sufficiently believe in his bat (if not his glove) as the foundational pillar that The Process be built upon.

Ultimately, I feel the Royals may have this one backward.  Gordon and Kila are similar players.  They both rely heavily on the walks and home runs to help their offensive value.  But it's Kila, I feel, who has more room for future improvement, at least on the offensive end.  He can, if he develops this year in a full season role, cut his strikeouts, maintain his home run power, and learn to drive the ball to the gaps.  Gordon continues to struggle with batting average at the ML level, even though it's never been a problem for him in the minor leagues.  Gordon could restore some of his 'prospect' luster by 1) clearing the fence more and 2) playing a good defensive left field.  But I would rather bet on Kila Ka'aihue becoming the major league regular, and then hoping Hosmer can play left field.

Gordon just strikes me as a slightly below average major league hitter -- one of the better hitters on the 2011 Royals to be sure -- but not a significant figure (or member of) a contending Royals team.

As for Kila, I don't know if he's going to make it through to the other side either.  Seems like even if he can establish himself, the Royals would rather move him for pitching depth and let Hosmer play first base.  That means it's pretty likely that this Gordon/Kila competition may just be about building trade value.  Either way, we'll know by the end of the year whether the front office's faith in Gordon pays off, or whether Kila Ka'aihue forces the front office to back Ned Yost's assessment of him and make him -- at least temporarily -- a major league regular as he has earned.
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