Royals Manangement has Tough Decisions to Make, Should Start Soon
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Two days ago, the Royals made their first big decision when they brought Mike Moustakas up to the big leagues. The timing of the Moustakas move wasn't at all controversial, but it forced the Royals hand in two ways. It made the team select one player at second base: Chris Getz or Mike Aviles. Both players had options remaining, and Getz had pretty clearly outperformed Aviles in a two months sample, so the decision to send down Aviles was somewhat easy.
But now the Royals have Wilson Betemit on the active roster and simply no place to play him. Betemit, as well as fourth outfielder Mitch Maier, almost certainly will not be back with the Royals in 2012. Both players would be better off traded immediately, rather than forced to compete with each other in pinch hitting roles (although right on cue, here comes the NL portion of the Royals' schedule...and hopefully we get to see some Eric Hosmer in the outfield). The Royals have three outfielders at Class AAA Omaha (Jarrod Dyson, Lorenzo Cain, and David Lough) who all figure to be on next year's opening day roster. Combined with Alex Gordon and (probably) Jeff Francoeur, there is simply no place on the roster for Maier. Maier and Betemit happen to have as much trade value as any player on the Kansas City roster right now, but the Royals will have to act quickly, and may not have the luxury of picking their offer selectively.
Similarly, beyond the ramifications of Mike Moustakas' call-up, the Royals have plenty of other timely decisions that will shape their future. I'm going to start that discussion with the two "remaining" left handed pitching prospects: Mike Montgomery and Chris Dwyer. Heading into the 2011 season, Royals fans envisioned a dream scenario of a rotation that would feature Montgomery and Dwyer, along with fellow prospects John Lamb and Danny Duffy. Duffy has made the rotation, having performed at roughly league average through five starts. But Lamb has hit a roadblock in his pitching career, undergoing Tommy John surgery. And that puts a lot of stress on the Royals to turn Chris Dwyer and Mike Montgomery into pitching prospects. Quickly. So that the 2012 Royals can win games.
But first, the Royals have to figure out what to do with Kyle Davies and Bruce Chen as they come off the disabled list. I think the obvious move is to send Duffy and Vin Mazzaro back down to AAA. But is this the best move? Mazzaro is just filling in, so his spot in the rotation should be pretty obviously available. But I think a lot of fans felt that when the Royals pulled Duffy up, it was for good. Now with not one, but two starting pitchers scheduled to come off the disabled list, and the not-so-troublesome development as waiver pickup Felipe Paulino pitching like the Royals best starter, Duffy becomes expendable in the immediate. After all, what's the alternative?
The alternative is to try a variation of the six man rotation, sending down one of the many Royals relievers. Generally, I am not a huge fan of attempting a six man rotation, but it does give a team added flexibility to skip (or use) a starter for purposes not including starting a game. I don't know if this would be such a good short term strategy, so much as it is merely a way to keep Duffy in the major league rotation. As uncharacteristic as it would be for the Royals to employ more than five starting pitchers at one time, it would actually be a good way to defer a decision until more information is known.
Both Dwyer and Montgomery have been struggling with command issues in general, and specifically, walks. A couple of observations to make about this duo. First, their performances have been quite similar. I think the discussion starts with the fact that both could come up today and exhibit the ability to get major league hitters out. But starting pitchers have to be more efficient than good at times, and think by that development, Dwyer can't start games unless he finds his control. Montgomery, like Duffy, would only be mediocre as a big league starter if he walks as many batters as he is now in AAA.
Still, I've looked at Montgomery's peripherals, and he's doing a good job keeping the ball on the ground and keeping the ball in the ballpark. I understand the Royals probably have a plan for Montgomery in the minors, probably to the tune of 15 to 20 starts, but I would bring him up and let him hash out his control issues in the big leagues. Not to contradict what I wrote above about having Davies and Chen coming off the DL, things do have to sort themselves out at the big league level in the immediate, but aside from a specific work plan that the Royals may have on Mike Montgomery, I can't see any reason to leave him in the minors until the results (read: ERA) improves. In the sense of being able to help the Royals, Mike Montgomery is ready for the majors.
Dywer is, in my opinion alone, closer to ready than everyone thinks. His control issues are very, very real. I don't know how much improvement he can actually do between now and the big leagues. He has a little bit more of a flyball tendency than Montgomery, and he puts so many baserunners on that he could be destroyed by big league hitters. And I'm not sure that's going to change a whole lot three years down the road. But one thing I'm absolutely certain of is that Chris Dwyer could come up today and strike out more hitters per start (even considering he'd likely never get out of the fifth inning) than Luke Hochevar or Jeff Francis. And in my mind, that makes him very close to big league ready. Though because he's getting hit around pretty good in AA, it's hard to see Dwyer as someone who could ever help the 2011 Royals, no matter how many chances he would theoretically be given. His value may ultimately come of the bullpen at the end of 2012, although the Royals can still wait about 365 days to make that decision.
If you pencil Montgomery into the 2012 Royals rotation along with Duffy, Hochevar, and Paulino (who is under team control through 2014), there's still one spot the Royals can't fill, and will have to go to the open market if they don't want to juggle Vin Mazzaro and Sean O'Sullivan in a year the team is supposed to contend. They can obviously go bargain basement and bring back Bruce Chen or Kyle Davies, but enjoy a lot of payroll flexibility to spend on someone who can lead the staff (a contract similar to the one given to Gil Meche in 2007 isn't out of the question). If the Royals wanted to split the difference, and pay out for an effective big league pitcher without having to go in more than one year, they can always compete to bring back Jeff Francis, though it is more likely that Francis is to get traded before the deadline, capping his career as a Royal.
The good news is that the free agent market for pitchers in 2012 looks a lot better now than it did at the beginning of the season, and it is headlined by C.J. Wilson of the Rangers, Edwin Jackson of the White Sox, Mark Buehrle of the White Sox, Roy Oswalt of the Phillies, Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals (who will qualify for free agency thanks to service time accrued while on the DL), Brad Penny of the Tigers, Adam Cook of the Rockies, Paul Maholm of the Pirates (this club option may actually be exercised), Joel Pinero of the Angels, Javier Vazquez of the Marlins, Jon Garland of the Dodgers, and potentially, CC Sabathia of the Yankees. Not every pitcher there qualifies as a "catch." Cook, Garland, and Pinero do not get strikeouts, and are not valuable signings. Buerhle is aging okay, but still has little room to decline before he's unemployable. Vazquez has a little more room for error, but is in severe decline, and always had a bit of a longball tendency. Anyway, the help is out there if the Royals want to make a deal.
More serious decisions may have to be made up the middle. The Royals can squat on their catching situation for the rest of this year, but need to figure out a solution for next year. Matt Treanor and Jason Kendall won't be back. Optimistically, we're looking at a Sept. 2012 arrival date for Salvador Perez. That's really optimistic the way his bat is playing at double-A Northwest Arkansas. Brayan Pena should be back in the fold because there is no one else in the organization is capable (though I would expect the team to acquire near MLB ready catching depth at the trade deadline for its veterans). And while the SS situation appears to be settled somewhere between Alcides Escobar and Christian Colon, second base has become more of a muddled mess than anyone would have believed in 2008 when the Royals drafted Johnny Giavotella and in 2009 when Jeff Bianchi was hitting .315 as the AA shortstop, and in 2010, when the Royals acquired Chris Getz in the Mark Teahen trade, and over that whole time when Mike Aviles was hitting well. Despite the four players listed above all having their merits (and I might throw AA 3B Mario Lisson in there even though he's never played 2B in the minors, his future is as a pro utility infielder), it's not clear if the Royals have a pro player in the group.
The favorite in the clubhouse has to be Giavotella, who is a Dayton Moore draft pick, in fact, the only one of the group drafted by Moore. He's become something of a boom or bust prospect. If he can come in and contribute with average defense at second base, the Royals might have their no. 2 hitter of the future. He was never thought to be a great hitter in the minor leagues, but in four years in pro baseball, he's posted an on-base percentage of at least .350 every year, and has a career mark of .370. He's thought to have little power, but he's now sports a .420 career minor league slugging percentage. If you translate that to the majors over the next 3.5 years when he's costing the Royals practically nothing prior to age 27, that is really good offense out of your second baseman. The problem with Giavotella is that his defense makes him a very fringe player at second base, and the Royals have no where to move him. Third base, first base, and DH are manned by everyday players under contract through at least 2015, and the first possible move for Giavotella off of second base is the everyday left fielder...in 2014, when Alex Gordon is available for free agency. The timing is poor: Giavotella won't be around for three more years in this organization unless he can be the second baseman.
Bianchi and Lisson definitely could handle the glovework workload of a second baseman, but will probably be competing with each other to be the utility infielder on a competing Royals club. Bianchi has the upper hand by virtue of being on the 40 man roster, and by being three years younger.
It's for the reasons listed above that the Royals would love if Getz established himself as an everyday player against right handed pitching, because solutions at second base for the Royals are just not very obvious. Getz cannot drive the ball, at all, but has some on base ability. Already at age 27, the fact of the matter is that Getz probably just isn't good enough to play everyday, though he might provide a passable platoon with Giavotella if the Royals aren't sold on a full on change.
Many observers expect Christian Colon to eventually slide over to the right side of the infield, but he appears that he will need to take this full season to catch up to AA pitching. A year ago today, Colon was still playing for Cal State Fullerton in the College World Series, so there's no reason to rush him to the majors. I don't really like him as a second baseman anyway, although if he simply has to move to the keystone to play because Alcides Escobar developed THAT well as a hitter, then so be it.
Ironically, the Royals could enter 2012 with a gaping hole in their lineup at second base because they had TOO MANY different potential solutions to go find someone like Kelly Johnson, Omar Infante, Adam Kennedy, or, if the Blue Jays decline his option, Aaron Hill. There could be very good values on the market at second base this offseason. It is nothing short of imperative that the Royals know for a fact whether Chris Getz, Mike Aviles, or Johnny Giavotella is the guy for them at the keystone in 2012. The Royals do not have to make that decision right now, but with the rest of the positional roster more or less in place for next year, the Royals need to make a decision at second base. And aside from starting pitching, it's their most trying future situation that they will face after the Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas call-ups.
