Streaking Royals
Image by Getty Images via @daylife
The baseball season is an conglomeration of random events loosely related to the skill of a team, played out over a sample of six months so, in time, we know what is real and what is a mirage. Typically, however, the Royals have not been this committed to showing themselves to be both a good and a bad baseball team in the same season. Check out these selective splits:
- Mar 31 to Apr 16: 10-4 (.714)
- Apr 17 to Apr 28: 2-9 (.182)
- Apr 29 to May 12: 8-4 (.667)
- May 13 to June 5: 5-17 (.227)
The First 14 Games
The Royals started very, very hot against an easy schedule. They won three of these games against the Angels, three of these games against the Mariners, two against the Tigers, and one each on the White Sox and Twins; only the Tigers are over .500. The Royals had a number of hitter start hot in this small sample. Wilson Betemit, Alex Gordon, and Billy Butler OPSed over .900 during this timeframe. But the WPA (which I like better in a small sample) tells a different story. It suggests that the start had a lot to do with the 6 starts made by vet lefties Bruce Chen and Jeff Francis (+0.5 WPA each), as well as the consistently good offense. The Royals did most of their damage in the middle and bottom of the order with Billy Butler (+.74 WPA), Betemit (+.60 WPA), Matt Treanor (+.66 WPA), and...Chris Getz (+.61 WPA)? We remember Treanor's walk off homer to beat the Angels in extra innings, but what you may not remember is that Chris Getz posted a .351 on base percentage as a full time player at the beginning of the season, and the Royals win games when their bottom of the order gets on base. Alex Gordon mashed, but didn't get a lot of opportunities to do much in the three hole, thanks to the table-setting stylings of Mike Aviles (.250 OBP), and Melky Cabrera (.286 OBP).
Mostly on the back of his walkoff homer against the Angels, Kila Ka'aihue enjoyed a major contribution to the Royals early season successes: a +0.443 WPA.
Making life difficult on the Royals during this timeframe were Aviles, Luke Hochevar (-.23 WPA), Kyle Davies (-.83 WPA). The remarkable thing about the Royals starting pitching over this timeframe is that there was basically no difference in the strikeout rates of their starters the first three times through the rotation. When Davies failed, it was because he put too many players on base via the free pass, and Luke Hochevar had an issue with gopher ball.
Second Half of April
This time was deceptively tough schedule-wise. Deceptive, because the Royals did nothing but play the Indians and Rangers, and the Indians were supposed to be a team that the Royals could fight with every game. It seems like forever ago, but the Royals actually managed to split the first series before tanking, though they were lucky to do so. The Royals used their bullpen to stave off disaster, because their outfield was pretty much responsible for avoiding an 0-11 stretch and splitting with the Indians. Alex Gordon and Melky Cabrera took a few key walks, and Jeff Francoeur drove them in. Otherwise, this group looked nothing like it did to begin the season, because Getz stopped getting on base, and Matt Treanor did what he could with a .158 BA. Wilson Betemit and Billy Butler struggled with runners on base.
The real issue is that the Royals weren't even in a lot of games over this stretch because Luke Hochevar and Jeff Francis. Hochevar started putting runners on base before giving up dingers, and Francis' strikeout rate tanked. Kyle Davies actually had his best three game stretch of the entire season, setting a season high strikeout rate for a Royals pitcher over any three game stretch (8.2/9 innings), and walking just one person per nine innings. He finished significant negative in WPA thanks to batting average on balls in play against him. It did look like the Royals wouldn't recover.
Hosmania
For the next four series, the Royals played their best baseball of the season. The schedule was easy: the Orioles, Athletics, and Twins are all last place teams, but the Royals went 6-3 against these teams, then took a series in Yankee Stadium that looked great, but proved to be the harbringer of absolutely nothing but letdown. Midway through this winning stretch, Kila Ka'aihue was demoted for Eric Hosmer in the midst the Royals winning 5 of 6 games and losing the other game by one run. During this span, Matt Treanor hit .389/.593/.444. Yes, the Royals catcher got on base 60% of the time. Clearly: Hosmania. The Royals would have been even more fantastic had second base not represented a huge offensive and defensive sinkhole for the team (Getz: .188/.235/.281). Mike Aviles, however, mashed to the tune of .333/.366/.528, mostly at third base prior to Hosmer coming up. Even Alcides Escobar had a good stretch with the bat, mixing in doubles with his .231 BA. Wilson Betemit's performance in the clutch changed completely (-.4 WPA -> +.5 WPA w/ identical .740 OPS). Melky, Alex, and Frenchie all flashed power, even as Gordon struggled to get on base.
Luke Hochevar stepped up and led the pitching rotation for at least this length of time, though he did it by getting ground ball outs, and not by striking people out (2.7 K/9). The Royals did not get strikeouts over this timeframe. The bullpen was great again, but the rotation K/9 rates fell about one per game from the levels established in April.
And what of Eric Hosmer? Well, he OPSed 1.159 with two homers in his first six MLB starts. Hosmania indeed.
Utter Collapse
Prior to the extra inning victory over the Blue Jays last night (which occurred while I was doing the research for this article), the Royals won just 5 of 22 games. This was made possible thanks to the Royals pitching rotation, which was never, ever good, but took on injuries to the two guys who actually were striking out hitters, Kyle Davies and Bruce Chen. It was in this losing streak where Eric Hosmer (.755 OPS) and Alex Gordon (.811 OPS) have showed their mettle as potential leaders of a successful Royals offense. But they've been pretty much alone from an offensive perspective, joined only by Chris Getz' returning on base percentage (.358), and Billy Butler's .800 OPS (but just a -.129 WPA). Getz (season line: .241/.321/.290) has thoroughly beaten out Mike Aviles (season line: .222/.267/.407) for the second base job.
During this "collapse" the Royals have actually found solutions in terms of starting pitching. Jeff Francis has thrown well (+0.013 WPA). Danny Duffy has shown the ability to get MLB hitters out and puts the Royals in every game he starts (-0.06 WPA). Ditto for shrewd waiver pickup Felipe Paulino (+0.281 WPA, includes Monday's win vs. TOR). That's three effective pitchers right now, which is as well as the rotation has thrown this year. But Sean O'Sullivan's meltdown was spectacular (an astounding -1.504 WPA, suggesting that O'Sully has actually taken the Royals OUT of 3 games that would have been 50/50 games with an average starter -- such as Duffy -- in) 3 competent starts out of 5 means the Royals are taking two losses each time through the rotation automatically, not to mention Soria's struggles here in the remaining three games. The Royals are going to ride out Luke Hochevar and hope for the best, but he's pitching like a no. 5 starter, and in the other spot, the Royals have no solution until Bruce Chen or (sigh) Kyle Davies is healthy, and will run out Vin Mazzaro tonight just hoping for some sort of acceptable performance.
If the Royals can find their offense, they can win games with the regression occuring in their rotation, and the fact that Paulino and Duffy can strike people out. The Royals, for example, would have a much better probability of going 4-0 in Duffy's four starts vs. the 0-4 they are if they play them again. Two blown saves by the bullpen (actually three, Crow blew Duffy's win and then Soria blew Crow's win against Texas an inning later) have cost the Royals offense it's due for providing Duffy decent run support, decent, of course, because in the other two starts the offense was a non factor.
Alcides Escobar was a negative value player over the last 22 games, making a disproportionate percentage of his errors and missed plays to his left, while hitting a robust .169/.211/.169, which is a .380 OPS. Matt Treanor, who has driven the Royals offense as much as anyone during its winning streaks, hit .189/.318/.243 over these games, which is a pretty expected Treanor line for this point in his career. Wilson Betemit may have a lot of trade value, but in these 22 games, he hit just .268/.316/.352. And of course, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur have helped established the Royals outfield as one of the best in baseball offensively, but during this losing streak, are hitting .259/.304/.376, and .229/.264/.337 respectively. The Royals can't commit to playing Cabrera and Francoeur every day if they are going to hit like that. This needs to be a two way street.
The Royals reshuffling of the lineup to have Gordon-Cabrera-Hosmer-Francoeur-Butler hit 1-5 every day has created a situation where the team is disproportionally dependent on Cabrera (-0.394 WPA) and Frenchie (-0.549 WPA) to produce, and this is a big reason that the Royals are averaging about two runs a game for the last week and a half. The other problem it has created is a severe limitation against left handed pitching. Gordon has done fine against lefties this season (identical .816 OPSes vs pitchers of both hands). But Melky Cabrera is a switch hitter who absolutely cannot hit lefties. So Alex Gordon is seeing a higher percentage of lefty relievers from the leadoff spot thanks to this lineup because opposing managers can leave the LOOGY in to face Cabrera and Hosmer, who really struggle against lefthanders. With Ned Yost batting Jeff Francoeur and Billy Butler, and Wilson Betemit/Mike Aviles (players who can handle left handed pitching) 4-6/7 every game, it's really easy to manage your pitching against the Royals lineup.
The solution, I believe, is to leave Alex Gordon in the leadoff spot, and alternate from there. If pitchers are going to get this Royals lineup out, the Royals need to at least make it hard on them.
