A Realistic Rebuilding
It's the most
wonderful time of the year. The hot stove is on. This is the time where all the
fans of all the teams of Major League Baseball franchises put their thinking
caps on and play the game of "if I was General Manager of my favorite
professional baseball team, what would I do to improve it?" As of right now,
anything is possible. Since the GM meetings are coming up, it's important to
start putting plans together. So, for the next couple hundred words, assume
that I am Omar Minaya. To the best of my ability, I will attempt to design a
team better than the one we currently have.
So let's look at
what we have going into next season. The following players are under contract
for 2010: Luis Castillo, David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran , Johan
Santana, Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey, and Fransisco Rodriguez. Arbitration
eligible players include Jeremy Reed,
Cory Sullivan, Angel Pagan, Jeff
Francoeur, John Maine, Tim Redding, Pedro Feliciano, Sean Green, and Nelson Figueroa.
Players under control and not arbitration eligible are Josh Thole, Omir Santos,
Daniel Murphy, Nick Evans, Fernando Martinez, Anderson Hernandez, Jon Niese,
Fernando Nieve, Pat Misch, Bobby Parnell, and Brian Stokes. Overall, the Mets
are on the hook for a little over $100 million without any free agent signings.
The important thing
the Mets need to do is get rid of the dead weight. That includes severing ties
with Tim Redding by non-tenuring him. A 5.02 FIP and 5.12 tERA has no place
being on this team so he is gone. Also, almost all of the free agents have to
go. That includes Brian Schneider, Carlos Delgado, Gary Sheffield, and (thank
goodness) Fernando Tatis. There are other options available both cheaper and
more cost effective than the free agents that the Mets will be letting go of.
I would resign JJ
Putz and Alex Cora at a significant pay cut (Putz around $1.5-$2 million and
Cora at around $750k). Putz has shown that when healthy he can be a worthwhile
pitcher and if his failure this season was due only to injury then there's no
reason why the Mets shouldn't bring him back. I can't think of any team that
would pay him more than $2 million so there is no reason to take a small chance
on a guy who can be valuable both as a reliever and trade bait if the Mets fall
out of contention. Cora is a tougher signing considering he'll be 35 next
season but he was pretty much a replacement level player whose weakness in the
field was exposed due to injury and playing too many games. Plus he provides
that "veteran presence" or whatever that so many people drool over. As much as
it pains me to say that he may be okay off the bench, he is a much better
player in limited appearances. The Mets also need a late inning hitter, similar
to Jim Thome on the Dodgers or Matt Stairs on the Phillies. A forum I read
recommended Eric Hinske, who is only 32 and not a type B free agent. I tend to
agree since he can still play the field and is a decent hitter with pop.
Another person who could work could be someone like Cliff Floyd but for him it
would be a position of "glorified bench coach" like Doug Mientkiewicz this year
with the Dodgers.
With everyone
departing and pay cuts to two returning players, we turn to the man that must
be on the Mets next season: Matt Holliday. It's an absolutely no-brainer
decision. Last season he had a .909 OPS, a 114 wRC, a positive UZR/150 (despite
what you may have seen against the Dodgers in the NLDS), and 5.7 Wins Above
Replacement. The Mets need to pull out all the stops to acquire him and spend
any money possible. $18-20 million for five or six years should do the trick
and won't sink the Mets financially. Remember, Beltran's contract runs out
relatively soon so without another outfield bat to anchor the offense, the Mets
would be going upstream without a paddle. His contract would expire by the time
he was 36 so now would be the time to sign him.
Josh Thole will
probably end up being the catcher for the future, so the Mets need to pick up a
stopgap replacement. Omir Santos is not the answer. Remember: while we were
spoiled with Mike Piazza and Paul LoDuca in recent years, catcher is not an
offensive powerhouse position. Someone like Miguel Olivo, recently released by
the Royals, would be a decent stopgap. His OBP is abysmal (less than .300), but
his power numbers are decent and is a positive WAR and RAR player. Another
quick fix for a season/platoon would be someone like Greg Zaun. A little older
and doesn't have a great skill set, he'd be cheap and adequate enough just to
get the job done.
First base is a
similar situation. Ike Davis has been tearing everything up in Fall League, and
all indications show that this kid should be ready relatively soon. Daniel
Murphy is not the answer over a full season as we have seen (and may need to be
converted to 2B. They did that previously when he was working in the minors but
didn't do a great job. However, if he doesn't learn he won't stick in the
majors so that may be a motivation for him). The Mets should go after Adam
LaRoche for this position or try to upgrade through trade. LaRoche was
connected to the Mets at the trade deadline but the deal with the Red Sox fell
through. Now, as a free agent they can attempt to acquire a guy who has a plus
bat and serviceable, but not great, defense. He could do a decent job for
around $3-5 million a year and hold the fort until Davis (or Murphy) are ready
to take it over full time.
The Mets also
desperately need a pitcher. I'm not a big fan of John Lackey anyway and if the
inconsistency of AJ Burnett in the playoffs proved anything it's that outside
of a few rare cases, there are no pitching guarantees. That's why giving a big
multi-year deal to a pitcher with decent, but not great stuff (his stats are
deceiving but he does have 4.47 tERA, which isn't all that good) is not
necessarily the correct move. Here are a couple names that legitimately
interest me, all who could be signed for low risk/high reward incentive laden
deals: Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, and Ben Sheets.
Bedard will be 31
and has for his entire career been a legitimate pitcher, if not injury prone.
In fact all of the guys I have listed are injury prone but the sinking or
swimming of the team based upon these players' injuries is irrelevant as long
as absurd contracts aren't given out. His peripheral statistics actually show
that he's a better pitcher than John Lackey (4.15 tERA) and could be a very
important piece to the Mets puzzle. He's only pitched 160 innings over the past
two seasons and if healthy could really boost the Mets next season. However,
all of this would be dependent on how quickly he can recovery from his torn
labrum. If he can return by February or March and begin rehabbing, he could
join the team similarly to how Tim Redding did last season. However, instead of
getting a mediocre pitcher, we'd be getting someone a hell of a lot better.
In place of Bedard,
Rich Harden is another interesting name to consider. His 2009 season was
disappointing but a guy with a 4.25 tERA and 3.58 FIP (both better than John
Lackey) should be considered, especially if he would be gotten at a discount.
It wouldn't mind Harden on the Mets for relatively cheap, plus he's still
pretty young (28 going into next season). He can't be any worse than, say,
Fernando Nieve.
Ben Sheets is the
name that intrigues me the most. A dominating pitcher for the Brewers, he could
never really put it together due to injury. He signed with the Rangers last
season but the contract was voided when it was revealed that he would be unable
to return in 2009. All things considered, due to the Mets recent injury
history, Ben Sheets is not someone to rely on. However, he's had a year of rest
and recovery and while the rust may still be there, Sheets' career 3.56 FIP
cannot be ignored. Sheets should be signed to the Mets to a deal similar to
what Freddie Garcia and Livan Hernandez got last year -- an incentive laden low
risk/high reward contract that could both revitalize Sheets' career as well as
the Mets season itself. The logic in these pitching moves is instead of going
after one player who we will need to overpay (such as Randy Wolf or the
aforementioned John Lackey), the Mets can sign pitchers who can produce just as
well as they can.
Using this plan,
going into the 2010 season the Mets would have:
C: Miguel Olivo
(.781 OPS, 2.2 WAR in 2009) or Josh Thole if platooning
1B: Adam LaRoche
(.834 OPS, 2.4 WAR)
2B: Luis Castillo
(.732 OPS, 1.6 WAR)
SS: Jose Reyes (not
a significant enough sample in 2009 .833 OPS, 5.9 WAR in 2008)
3B: David Wright
(.837 OPS, 3.4 WAR)
LF: Matt Holliday
(.909 OPS, 5.7 WAR)
CF: Carlos Beltran
(.915 OPS, 2.9 WAR)
RF: Jeff Francoeur
(.732 OPS, 0.0 WAR)
BN: Angel Pagan
(.837 OPS, 2.8 WAR)
BN: Jeremy Reed
(.605 OPS, -.7 WAR)
BN: Josh Thole (not
a significant sample)
BN: Daniel Murphy
(.741 OPS, 0.6 WAR)
BN: Alex Cora (.630
OPS, 0.0 WAR)
BN: Eric Hinske
(.780 OPS, 0.8 WAR)
Pitching Staff:
SP Johan Santana
(2.8 WAR)
SP Rich Harden (1.8
WAR)/Erik Bedard (1.9 WAR)
SP Mike Pelfrey
(1.8 WAR)
SP John Maine (0.6
WAR)
SP Oliver Perez
(-.8 WAR)/Ben Sheets (4.4 WAR in 2008)/Jon Niese (.6 WAR)
RP Pedro Feliciano
(.6 WAR)
RP Brian Stokes
(-.2 WAR)
RP Fernando Nieve
(.1 WAR)
RP Pat Misch (-.3
WAR)
RP Bobby Parnell
(.5 WAR)
RP Sean Green (-.1
WAR)
RP JJ Putz (.1 WAR)
CL Francisco
Rodriguez (.3 WAR)
These moves would still allow flexible payroll for potential trades and would not be a significant payroll increase (if there is an increase at all). The moves improve the team sizably and will hopefully move the team back into the 90 win range.Next week, I will analyze some potential targets the Mets should look into on the trade market.


