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Lambeau Leap of Faith


October 31, 2010 6:32 AM

Packers-Jets Matchup Losing Luster

There is no room for a hangover from last week's thrilling win over a rival that stopped a skid in which the Green Bay Packers had lost three of four, all by three points. 

Sunday, the Pack travels to take on the team generally considered the best (see my Week Eight Rankings and a consensus for Week Seven at the same site) in football. The Jets have not lost since Week One, and a lot has changed since then.

Back then, they still had the shackles on Mark Sanchez and before they got Santonio Holmes back from suspension. Back then, they relied on their defense; now they win with offense.3834566953_3fce8cafb3_z.jpg

Back then, the Packers were Super Bowl contenders with one of the deepest linebacking corps in the history of the game; now three of them have been lost for the season , and two more are playing through injuries. The deep and talented secondary has been without two of last year's starters (cornerback Al Harris and safety Atari Bigby) and lost two more safeties for the season.

The defensive line, with a suspension to Johnny Jolly and injuries to Cullen Jenkins, Ryan Pickett, and Mike Neal (a tackle/end hybrid generally viewed as a reach drafted too high who cannot stay healthy...Justin Harrell-also out for the season again, but at this point his injuries do not count-anyone?) is so thin that offensive tackle/guard T.J. Lang has filled in on it.

Even on offense the Packers are hurting. Starting running back Ryan Grant and tight end Jermichael Finley, being counted on for 2000-plus yards of offense this season, are gone for the year. Right tackle Mark Tauscher and wide receiver Donald Driver are battling with significant injuries. Backup running back James Starks has yet to suit up.

Al Harris and Atari Bigby are two players the Packers are hoping to have healthy enough to play

But on the positive front, Harris, Starks, Bigby, Tauscher, and Pickett may return Sunday. Driver and Jenkins have been in the lineup and are also questionable. Clay Matthews and Driver, purely decoys against Minnesota, may be healthy enough to have an impact this week. The Packers picked up safety Anthony Smith, impressive for Green Bay in the 2009 preseason, in a trade before hosting Minnesota.

So what can realistically be expected out of the patch-work Packers roster this Sunday?

When the Packers have the ball:

The Jets had the league's top-ranked pass defense last season, and added cornerbacks Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson on the corners, safety Brodney Pool, and pass rusher Jason Taylor to the linebacking corps. But their pass defense has dropped to 22nd in the league. Of course, part of this is teams have spent much of the second half passing to catch up, and part of it is All Pro cornerback Derrelle Revis has been hurt.

Green Bay will be tested against a good, rested pass rush and deep, healthy secondary. But the eighth-ranked passing attack will have some success throwing the ball because of an All Pro quarterback and one of the best receiving corps in the game. The Packers do not run the ball much anyway (20th-ranked rushing attack), but will need to continue to utilise an improving Brandon Jackson enough to keep the 12th-ranked run defense honest.

When the Jets have the ball:

The Jets have the fourth-best scoring in the game hosting the 12th-best team in points allowed. New York is barely above average in yards and the Packers are barely below average in holding them down.

New York does most of its damage on the ground (second-ranked rushing attack), where Green Bay is vulnerable (23rd-ranked run defense). This contributes to a tremendous advantage in protecting the football: New York has a plus-10 turnover margin, while Green Bay's is minus-one. Meanwhile, the Jets have the 27th-ranked passing attack and the Packers have the 14th-ranked pass defense...expect the Jets to hand the Packers a steady diet of runs.

On special teams:

As in every match-up except the Dolphins, Green Bay is at a significant disadvantage here. Neither kicker has missed more than three field goals, but the Jets average over two more yards per punt and have 13 punts downed inside the 20 to just five for Green Bay. They yield four fewer yards per return and get one more. On kicks, they get 6.4 more than they give up, whereas the Packers yield 2.2 more than they manage.

Prediction: Jets 27, Packers 16 (Record: 3-4, 3-4 vs. spread)

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