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February 7, 2012 8:30 AM

Column Awards of the Week (1/31-2/6)

By updating RealClearSports I read hundreds of articles every week but sometimes there are particular passages that need highlighting. And to make these passages more palatable I'm doing them in award form! The awards are completely random and will change weekly.

Column Awards for slide.jpgEli Manning now ranks among the best QBs of all time. He is now in the same class as Tom Brady, who failed to enter into the conversation with Joe Montana as the best QB ever. Eli Manning out-dueled Brady and is clearly the better player at this point in time.

That's apparently what we learned from the Super Bowl. The media has to bring it down to the simplest terms and declare the winner the best and the loser something along the lines of the worst. Tom Brady's legacy is ruined and Eli Manning's is skyrocketing. Can we cool it with the legacy talk? Tom Brady is being unfairly criticized and Eli Manning is being unfairly praised. There is more to who is the better player than who won the game.

Tom Brady had one of the greatest regular seasons of any quarterback ever. Even in his worst game he completed 57-percent of his passes and had as many touchdowns as he did interceptions. He finished the year with 39 touchdowns and 12 picks while throwing for a career-high 5,235 yards. He did this all without a deep threat wide receiver. He did it with a possession receiver and two tight ends as his top threats and no running game. Let's not look past those amazing accomplishments just because he fell short in the final game.

And let's discuss the circumstances in the final game. Rob Gronkowski played but was clearly not 100-percent due to that ankle injury. He looked slow and if he was healthy there is no way he allows linebacker Chase Blackburn to intercept that pass. In addition to not having one of his top targets, the Patriots had awful field position. Brady was forced to go nearly the entire length of the field in order to score. The 3 scoring drives from the Pats went for 60, 96 and 79 yards.

It's not as if Brady had a bad game. He was 27-for-41 for 276 yards with 2 touchdowns and the 1 interception I mentioned earlier. He completed a Super Bowl record 16 consecutive passes. If the Patriots defense had been able to stop the Giants on their final drive, Brady wins the MVP hands down.

I have to agree with Gisele Bundchen. Who would've thought that sentence would be uttered in a sports article six years ago. After the game the supermodel wife to Tom Brady got into an argument with a Giants fan and said, "My husband cannot (bleeping) throw the ball and catch the ball at the same time. I can't believe they dropped the ball so many times." Wes Welker's drop has been the most publicized but the Patriots also dropped the first two passes on their final drive. His throws weren't perfect but they were good enough and any wide receiver would agree they should've been caught.

Eli Manning also had an incredible season and his penchant for fourth quarter comebacks this season was amazing. He looks like he might be turning the corner in his career. That might sound strange since he just won his second Super Bowl but he hasn't exactly been an elite quarterback up to this point. The year he won his first Super Bowl, he led the league in interceptions as he also did last season.

Manning is very lucky to have an amazing receiving core. Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham is probably the best wide receiver trio in the league. All three made huge plays to propel Eli and the Giants to this win.

Nicks led the way with 10 catches for 109 yards. Victor Cruz scored the first touchdown of the game. Mario Manningham made the catch that's being compared to David Tyree's helmet catch. Nicks is the type of big-play wideout Brady has had only briefly in his career with Randy Moss. That Cruz touchdown? If Jerod Mayo had actually been watching the ball he would've at least knocked it down and probably picked it off. Manningham's catch was just ridiculous. But I will admit it was a very well thrown ball to one of the only places he could place it to give him a chance to make the grab. That's where the comparisons to the helmet catch break down. That pass to David Tyree was horrendous. He should've never thrown it. But no one remembers the poor decision and instead we remember the fantastic grab that helped Eli to his first Super Bowl title.

It's also not fair to compare Manning to Brady because they weren't exactly going up against the same defense. The Patriots gave up nearly 300 passing yards a game in the regular season whereas the Giants were peaking at just the right time.

Unfortunately, none of this really matters. In just a few years the arguments will boil down to how many Super Bowls these quarterbacks won. Most fans won't look at the circumstances. They won't look at the individual plays or the luck involved. But maybe even that's a bit optimistic. Based on some of the things I've read many have already forgotten about the circumstances and anointed Eli the king of all QBs and Brady as an also-ran now past his prime. On to the awards!

Continue to Column Awards of the Week (1/31-2/6)

February 2, 2012 8:30 PM

Pay Homage to Gamblor - Super Bowl

Well this is annoying. I assume I'm with much of America when I say that watching the Patriots and Giants, Boston vs. New York is like deciding if you want to be beaten with a sack of doorknobs or have your skin rubbed off with sandpaper. It's lose lose. The only way this Super Bowl will be palpable is through lots of betting, gorging on snacks and moderate alcoholism.

The most annoying thing about this Super Bowl (other than obviously the fans of both teams and the fact that one of them will have to win, thereby making them all the more insufferable) is the dumb rematch angle. Why is everyone so into talking about how this is a rematch of Super Bowl XLII? That was four years ago, you know that right? If the Steelers and Cardinals play next year is everyone going to talk about that being a rematch? Probably not. Sure the teams still have the same QBs and the same head coaches, but that's about it. If any game between these two is talked about it should be their regular season meeting from this year, not a game that happened four years ago.

By that token both conference championships were big rematches because those teams had played one another in a previous playoff game in the past. The term rematch should only be applicable with a maximum of two years between games. The Patriots won't care about this Super Bowl more or less because they lost to the Giants in 2008. Only seven players that were on that team are on the current team, a Pats victory won't soften the wounds of Randy Moss or Rodney Harrison.

Yesterday we covered prop bets for the Super Bowl. Now lets look at the actual game.

Last Week: 2-0
Playoffs: 6-4

Super Bowl Program.PNG

New York Giants (+3) vs. New England Patriots

At the start of these playoffs I told myself that the Patriots would not be able to win the Super Bowl because somewhere down the line their defense was going to betray them. Also over the course of these playoffs it has become increasingly clear that the Giants have some sort of angel on their shoulder as it seems like they are made of lucky breaks. I'm not one to fight fate, so I believe the Giants are the pick.

Let's look at the facts about the Patriots. Their offense has struggled in games against strong opponents, they only have one win over a team with a winning record (the Ravens in the AFC Championship), and their biggest offensive threat is suffering from a high-ankle sprain. But at the same time they have one of the most dangerous passing attacks in NFL history and their defense seems to be figuring things out. However, our evidence that their defense is figuring things out is a dominant game against the wildly suspect Broncos and a decent game against the Ravens in which they still let up 398 yards.

The Giants meanwhile have outgained their opponents in seven straight games and Eli Manning has stopped turning the ball over, which was their biggest weakness during their midseason losing streak. They are also catching hail marys and having punts hit other teams in the knee. Let's just say if this was happening to the Broncos I think we'd all be true believers now.

And then there is the history between the two teams, no not the old Super Bowl, but that week 9 game in which the Giants forced Brady into a subpar game, fumbling once and throwing two interceptions. And the current New York defense has been playing better coming into this game than the one that beat the Patriots in November.

So all the signs point to Giants initially - they are playing at their strongest, they seem to give the Patriots fits, and they have the offense to really test the New England defense - something which neither of the Patriots other playoff opponents this year had. BUT, there is a giant, giant red flag hanging over this game and this bet. Everyone and I mean EVERYONE loves the Giants, except Vegas.

All the experts are picking the Giants to win, all the talking heads, all the columnists, all the bloggers. That alone is cause for concern, if everyone is picking the underdog something is wrong. But that's not all, the general public is also betting heavily on the Giants. Roughly 65% of bets have been made on the Giants and the point spread has only dropped from 3.5 to 3. By not moving the spread and getting more bets on the Patriots Vegas is ensuring that they will lose a ton of money if the Giants win, and last I checked Vegas doesn't do things that result in it losing money very often.

I know I'm an idiot for going against the house, but I can't help myself.

Final Score Prediction: Giants 24, Patriots 21

And of course, if the game gets too insufferable you can always go check out the puppy bowl on Animal Planet. Go Abilene!

February 1, 2012 5:30 PM

Pay Homage to Gamblor - Super Bowl Prop Bets

Despite all the awfulness that is this Super Bowl (more on this tomorrow), there are still things that make the Super Bowl great. And while I won't share recipes for chicken wings, chili, nachos, beef brisket, pigs in a blanket, and other deliciousness or tell you what alcohols you should be consuming I will say this - you should make a lot of bets.

For starters, prop bets. I'm a firm believer that prop bets should be used in all aspects of everyday life. Even something as simple as betting on what time of day the mail arrives can make an otherwise boring day just that much more exciting.

As for the Super Bowl - betting on coins, commercials, Hakeem Nicks' catches, MVPs, first downs, sacks, Gatorade, Madonna, and just about anything else you can think of can help keep you from going insane (or maybe make you go insane, I'm not sure I've already lost my grip on reality). Obviously it depends where you are betting what kind of prop bets you can find, but I will go over a sampling of ones that look either interesting or extra stupid.

Coin Toss

This is generally given at -105 odds (meaning you'd need to bet $105 to win $100) and thus is a stupid bet. Instead of making this bet you should find a friend and bet each other on the outcome of a coin flip and not lose 5% of your investment.

The Team That Scores First Will Lose (+135)

Of the 45 Super Bowls, the team to score first is 29-16, but over the last ten years the team to score first is only 4-6.

Neither team will score three unanswered times (+155)

I'm not sure why it is so expected that a team will score three times without the other team scoring, especially in a game that is supposed to be close like this one, but I won't ask questions, I'll just bet.

Largest lead of the game will be under 13.5 points (+120)
There will be a lead change in the second half (+130)

As long as I'm expecting the game to be close these both make sense


MVP

Odds are it will be Brady or Manning, and betting odds reflect this with Brady at 7/5 and Manning at 9/4. Intriguing prospects include Hakeem Nicks at 12/1, Wes Welker at 15/1, and Justin Tuck at 75/1.

Who will the MVP thank first?
Teammates - 5/4
Coach - 12/1
Family - 15/2
God - 4/1
Owner - 5/1
No One - 5/2

A lot of intriguing options here, but I like owner or God the best.

Halftime

There are always tons of stupid bets about halftime. This year is obviously no exception. Amongst others there is - Will Madonna wear fishnet stockings at any point? And, will she wear a hat at any point? (Both bets have yes and no both at -120). Bet yes for both and when you see this you will be happy you won money and maybe not even vomit.

Madonna Fishnets and Hat.jpg

Fun One to Cheer For

Will any player get an excessive celebration penalty? Yes +250. It's always fun rooting for people to be dicks.

Player Props

Brandon Jacobs under 30.5 rushing yards (-115)

Teams want to pass on the Patriots anyways and Jacobs is no longer a weapon for anything other than short yardage.

Hakeem Nicks over 85.5 receiving yards (-115)

Victor Cruz or Hakeem Nicks will have a big game, possibly both. Since they seem to be paying out better for Nicks, I think he is the pick.

Mario Manningham will score a TD (+160)

He's scored one every other game this playoffs, so why not.

Tom Brady over 320.5 passing yards (-115)
Wes Welker over 7 receptions (-115)

These both seem too easy.


Tomorrow we will look at the game itself, why I hate it, why it's not a revenge game, and who will win.

Continue to Pay Homage to Gamblor - Super Bowl Prop Bets

January 31, 2012 9:00 AM

Coca-Cola Bringing All-Out Blitz in Super Bowl Campaign

Super Bowl ads are no longer just about the buzz they create during the game. More and more companies try to generate interest before the game and hope the campaign is strong enough to keep people talking well after the game has ended. With that in mind, Coke invited members of the media to get a sneak peek at its latest Super Bowl ad campaign.

The Super Bowl hasn't been a fixture for Coca-Cola like it has been for rival Pepsi, but the company is going all-in this year with its latest ad campaign.

With a 30-second spot costing north of $3.5 million, it's important for advertisers to make the most of that ad buy. Companies want their ads to create buzz that will last for weeks after the game. They want to be the talk at the coffee pot on Monday morning. And in the current climate they want to engage viewers and spread their message through social media.

Coke Polar Bears.jpgCoca-Cola has launched an all-out campaign in an attempt to achieve all of those goals. Coke is bringing the bears to the Super Bowl. Before you try to make a prop bet that Cutler will throw a first-quarter interception, you should know it's the iconic polar bears. The bears are coming out of hibernation to watch the Super Bowl. But it's not as if the polar bears are exactly cutting edge and Coke wasn't about to stray from their brand and have the bears do something odd or salacious to create buzz. Instead, they have made them highly interactive.

Aside from the television ads during and after the game, you can watch along with the bears. With the help of CGI animation, puppeteers and writers, Coke will make the bears come to life in real time. They will actually be watching and reacting to the game just like the fans and you can follow along at CokePolarBowl.com (there are already three videos posted that you can view right now). You can then tweet with the bears, post video clips to Facebook or even send in fan pictures they will display on their tablets.

But that's just part of what makes this ad campaign so unique. During the game, Coke will run a spot that reflects what has actually transpired on the field. Its postgame commercial will also be unique to the results.

This is all part of Coke's overall marketing plan to engage viewers with multiple platforms and to get viewers to market their product.

As a football fan and not just a Super Bowl fan, I'll probably be too focused on the game to check in on what the bears are up to, but even for people like me the bears bring certain benefits. After the game you can send condolences or congratulations to fans (depending on their rooting interest) and that comes with a coupon for a free Coke. If only Apple would adopt the same policy.

January 31, 2012 8:30 AM

Column Awards of the Week (1/24-1/30)

By updating RealClearSports I read hundreds of articles every week but sometimes there are particular passages that need highlighting. And to make these passages more palatable I'm doing them in award form! The awards are completely random and will change weekly.

Column Awards for slide.jpgI don't want Peyton Manning to be the biggest story of this Super Bowl. He is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time and his imminent departure from the Colts is a story that needs to be told - just not now.

Just because the Super Bowl takes place in Indianapolis and his brother is playing in it doesn't mean we have to focus on Peyton's problems. It seems almost disrespectful to me. Can't we concentrate on the two quarterbacks that are actually going to play in the Super Bowl? We are talking about arguably the greatest QB ever in Tom Brady and possibly the greatest Giants QB ever in Eli Manning. At the very least, Eli is having a simply tremendous postseason that should be admired. But instead of hearing about things that actually pertain to the game, I'm hearing and reading about Jim Irsay's tweets and Peyton's opinion on the state of a franchise. A franchise that went 2-14 this season.

Is this Super Bowl not compelling enough? A repeat of 2008? The revenge game for the Pats? Belichick and Brady's legacies? The Giants' emerging WR core? The Patriots' deadly tight ends? That's not enough? Like I said though, it is a story that needs to be told. It was one of the biggest stories all season long and fans want to know how it will end. But the Colts have until March 8 to cut Manning and avoid paying a $28 million bonus. So, can't we at least wait until a couple of days after the Super Bowl to go full throttle on the Peyton story? Isn't that what the offseason is for? Well, that and a mind-numbing number of mock drafts and analysis over prospects' broad jump distance. I'll still gladly take that over these soap opera storylines any day of the week. On to the awards!

Continue to Column Awards of the Week (1/24-1/30)

January 24, 2012 9:30 AM

Column Awards of the Week (1/17-1/23)

By updating RealClearSports I read hundreds of articles every week but sometimes there are particular passages that need highlighting. And to make these passages more palatable I'm doing them in award form! The awards are completely random and will change weekly.

Column Awards for slide.jpgObviously, the biggest story about the Ravens' loss was Billy Cundiff's missed field goal. But the other story I read the most about on the Ravens side was how Joe Flacco showed that he can be a franchise quarterback. It's as if all these analysts had their memories wiped clean just before this game. Vinnie Iyer of Sporting News wrote an article entitled, "Despite Loss, Joe Flacco Takes Big Step Forward"; in support of Flacco getting a long-term deal, Clark Judge of CBS Sports wrote, "Flacco made enough big plays in critical situations to put Baltimore in a Super Bowl. Better yet, he outperformed Tom Brady, one of the best ever to play the position."; Brian Costello of the New York Post penned, "Flacco silenced his doubters, including those within his own locker room, with an outstanding performance in the AFC Championship. He finished one throw short of pulling it out, though, in a 23-20 loss to the Patriots."

Flacco DID play a great game. He DID outplay Tom Brady. But was that really all that surprising? The knock on Flacco hasn't been that he's a bad quarterback but that he is inconsistent. QB rating isn't exactly the best measure but it's a useful tool and looking at his stats from this season, Flacco had 6 games with a QB rating above 100 and 7 games with a rating below 75. It's that wild inconsistency that has puts Ravens fans on edge about calling him their franchise quarterback. No one knows which Flacco will show up. Is it the one that dismantled the rival Steelers in the opening week or the one that averaged just 3.6 yards per attempt in a horrendous Monday night game against the Jaguars?

Let's also not forget the situation on Sunday. Sure, it was the AFC Championship game and the pressure was on but it was also against the Patriots that gave up the second most passing yards per game. So was it really that surprising that he put up those numbers? Do the Ravens really think that this is the game that solved all of his problems? The answer is they don't have much of a choice. Flacco will be their quarterback next year and will almost definitely receive an extension beyond that because, while inconsistent, he is still young and he's better than the alternative. But let's not take his performance on Sunday as a sign he's ready to take the next step and lead this team to the Super Bowl, let alone simply become someone the Ravens can rely on every week. On to the awards!

Continue to Column Awards of the Week (1/17-1/23)

January 20, 2012 9:32 AM

Pay Homage to Gamblor - Conference Championships

A lot of the talk this week has been about how offenses dominated in the regular season, but in the playoffs we are finding out it's all about defense. This is a load of crap. For starters, did you see the games last weekend? With the exception of the Ravens-Texans game all of the games were won by high-scoring offenses. The 49ers, Giants, and Patriots put up 36, 37, and 45 respectively; yet the refrain is "defenses reign!"

I know the reasoning behind this is that the Saints and Packers both lost and they had great offenses and poor defenses, but come on. Everyone is willing to admit that the Patriots are an offense first team, but they seem to think the other three remaining teams are all about defense. Has anyone watched the Giants this year? They allowed the sixth most yards in the league and the 8th most points. The Patriots, Packers, and Saints all allowed less points than the Giants. Yes, they did have 48 sacks and have a fearsome front four, but beyond that they don't have a great defense; across the board they have better statistics on offense (8th best in points and yards). The Giants can position themselves as a defensive smash-nose juggernaut if they so desire, but that's not what they are. They are a team that needs to throw the ball well and score points to win on a consistent basis.

Last Week: 2-2
Playoffs: 4-4

Home team in CAPS

Ravens (+7) over PATRIOTS
Fun note - the Patriots STILL have not beat a team with a winning regular season record. So there is hope for the Ravens. And keep in mind, the Ravens play their best against really good teams. They looked awful this year against teams like Jacksonville and Tennessee, but were at their best against Pittsburgh and San Francisco.

Early in the week I was all over the Patriots, but now I'm fairly certain this will be a close game and probably come down to the turnover battle and/or special teams.

And when it comes to turnovers the Patriots have a slight advantage at the quarterback position. Joe Flacco's constant search for respect is somewhat comical. I'm not sure what he wants from the media, he has supporters and detractors, but for the most part everyone thinks he is an average to above average quarterback. The reason for that is because he is an average to above average quarterback. You can't expect people to consider you elite when you have seasons that include games in which you lose to the Jaguars and average 3.6 yards per attempt. Five times this season Flacco had a rating of under 70, and while QB rating is far from a perfect stat, under 70 is certainly a sign of a bad game. Just for comparison his opponent, Tom Brady, had only four games with a QB rating under 100.

But, this is more than just a battle of QBs, otherwise the Ravens wouldn't be here. This is about their defense and their ability to stop elite teams. Coincidentally, the elite Patriots offense has a habit of being stopped in the postseason by strong defenses. In 2010 the Pats had the best offense in the NFL; they got stopped in the playoffs by the Jets in Foxboro and their strong defense. In 2009 admittedly they weren't as good with only the sixth best offense (but fifth best defense) and in the playoffs they got stopped by the Ravens in Foxboro. The point is that even though the Patriots offense is great, they seem to have troubles against strong defenses in the playoffs. I expect it to be the same on Sunday.

It'll be hard, but they'll have just enough (but not enough to cover).

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 30, Ravens 27

Giants (+2.5) over 49ERS
Obviously as a Redskins fan I'm biased towards not liking the Giants. In my mind there are a million reasons no one should be for the Giants ever, but here is one more - remember about one month ago when they wanted to fire their coach and hated their team? You should because it was only one month ago. Now they are probably going to end up winning the Super Bowl, and their fans will talk about how great Tom Coughlin is and gloss over the fact that just recently they wanted to put him on the first bus out of town. And then next December, when the Giants are 5-6, the buzz is going to start up again about how they need to fire Tom Coughlin. Meanwhile everyone who is a fan of a team that really knows what struggling means will throw up in their mouths.

As for this game, both teams have a great shot. If the Giants truly play physical 'smash-mouth football' like they claim they want to, then advantage 49ers. In that type of game I'll take the team with the second ranked defense (fourth by yards) and eighth best rushing attack who also happens to be playing at home (where they are 8-1) over the team with the 25th best defense (27th by yards) and worst rushing attack in the league. However, I don't think that's how it's going to go down.

There is no denying that these last few weeks the Giants have been playing great, and seemingly are playing better each week. Their offense seems to keep getting better (and they may have actually found some sort of ground game) and their defense appears to have fixed at least some of its problems or rather, the amazing play of their defensive line has masked their weaknesses elsewhere. Throw on the fact that they seem to be getting everything to fall their way now (see below) and it just seems like they are destined to play in the stupid Super Bowl.

Final Score Prediction: Giants 24, 49ers 20

Hakeem-Nicks-Hail-Mary-Catch.jpg

Please let me be wrong. Please not another Giants-Patriots Super Bowl.

January 17, 2012 9:30 AM

Column Awards of the Week (1/10-1/16)

By updating RealClearSports I read hundreds of articles every week but sometimes there are particular passages that need highlighting. And to make these passages more palatable I'm doing them in award form! The awards are completely random and will change weekly.

Column Awards for slide.jpgWhat if the NBA lockout hadn't ended? Sure, college basketball is beginning to get good entering the heart of conference play and the NFL still has a couple more weekends left but the sports landscape would be pretty barren (besides for that niche audience that loves the NHL - bless their hearts).

Yesterday the NBA had a slate of 11 games to fill the void and while I'm glad the NBA is back, I can't help but notice that the product seems to be far inferior to recent years. Take a look at the stats from this year compared to last:

NBA Stats last year vs this year.jpg

A 5 point per game disparity is fairly massive. Of course, this could just be what happens at the beginning of an NBA season and perhaps by the end things will have evened out. But right now some of these games are fairly ugly. The most likely culprit for the decline in efficiency is the lockout. Not only did the lockout essentially eliminate training camp and exhibition games (I loved the headlines that read '(Insert team name) Finishes Undefeated Preseason' when those teams had only played a couple games) but the league then crammed 66 games into a very small window. Given the time frame, during a regular season a team would play about 60 games during that stretch. Six games might not sound like a big difference but that is most likely six more back-to-backs and for some teams a third game in a row. And keep in mind this is teams learning on the fly since with free agency and trades, many teams didn't have their full squad until close to the beginning of the season.

Damn those greedy owners for trying to shove in as many games as possible to maximize revenue. That is how some will frame the degradation in play. But the players are as much to blame as the owners. The players don't get paid for games they don't play either so it was in their benefit to play as many games as possible as well whether the product suffered or not. And I firmly believe the product has suffered. But with little alternatives in the sports world, I'll gladly deal with a subpar NBA season than to have no NBA at all. On to the awards!

Continue to Column Awards of the Week (1/10-1/16)

January 13, 2012 9:24 AM

Pay Homage to Gamblor - Divisional Playoffs

Quick note on college football before we start. The talk this week has been about how the BCS is going to change and we are likely to see a 'plus one' system where one additional game is played after the bowl games. This is obviously still in the works and who knows what the final product would be, but let's assume everything stayed the same as it is now with an added game at the end. Well who ended up number one and number two in the polls? Alabama and LSU - so would a plus one pit these two against each other for a third time? I'd say no, no way college football and the BCS could be that stupid, but then again it's college football and the BCS - never underestimate their stupidity.

Back to the NFL where the first round of the playoffs is now behind us and it appears a lot of craziness happened. I said appeared, because in reality, nothing was that crazy. Yes, the Denver Tebows beat the Steelers, but that was only mildly shocking (more on that later). But Denver was the home team, and all four home teams won. We have no wild cards left in the NFL playoffs, which is probably the craziest part of the weekend, the first time that's happened since 2006.

Last Week: 2-2
Playoffs: 2-2

49ERS (+3.5) over Saints
Everyone likes the Saints. They have an exciting offense and it's impossible to dislike New Orleans (unless maybe you ventured into the ninth ward at the wrong time). And sure, right now the Saints also look like the hottest team in the NFL - but there is a very good chance they lose this game. During their current run the Saints only played one decent team on the road - the Falcons, and I think we all saw last weekend that the Falcons might not be that great. Plus that's a dome stadium, where the Saints feel most at home. The Saints were only 5-3 on the road this season and scored about two touchdowns less on average on the road as compared to at home. And playing outdoors the Saints were 3-2 with a 1.4 point average margin of victory. The 49ers meanwhile only lost one game at home this season, and that was the second game of the season - they've improved since then by the way.

The 49ers also seem to have a way of keeping games slowly paced, the exact opposite of what the Saints do. Despite that fact they still score 27.6 points per game at home which is enough to stay with the outdoor road Saints against the 49ers defense.

It's by no means a lockup win for the 49ers, but it is going to be close, and I'll take the points.

Final Score Prediction: 49ers 27, Saints 23

PATRIOTS (-13.5) over Broncos
As much as I enjoyed the Tim Tebow experience last week and was tempted to fall for its calling allure I cannot do it. Looking at this game logic prevails - there was a reason the Broncos won last week and won't win this week. The Patriots are just much better off than the Steelers. Sure the Pats have a porous pass defense, but they have just about every other possible advantage. The Steelers were almost unbelievably banged up and hadn't played well on the road all year, facts that were glossed over by how bad Tebow had been playing leading up to that game. In reality, it wasn't that big of an upset.

Remember these two teams played before and the Denver defense, which was the key for the Broncos run and rise of Tebow, could not stop the Patriots. Expect more of the same on Saturday. And despite the fact that Tebow played the best game of his career last weekend, the Broncos won't be able to keep up.

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 41, Broncos 21

RAVENS (-7.5) over Texans
The Texans were impressive last week, but the Ravens are not the Bengals. While it's possible that Flacco will throw three interceptions like Dalton did, I'm not betting on it. I also expect the Ravens defense to put up more of a fight against Arian Foster.

Both teams will look to run the ball, which might keep it close, but I expect the Ravens defense to force some mistakes out of TJ Yates. And if both teams have the same game plan I look for the Ravens to win based on the fact that they've been doing it longer and are playoff veterans. And oh, the Ravens were 8-0 at home this season, including a 29-14 victory over the Texans during week 6 in which they stuffed Foster all day. They are going to force Yates to try to beat them, and I don't think he's up to the task.

Final Score Prediction: Ravens 23, Texans 13

PACKERS (-7.5) over Giants
I had the Giants picked all week long up until when I started writing this. The Giants scare me. They have the right mix to beat the Packers especially now that their running game is improved, thus opening up the play-action options. They use their tight end well, which Green Bay has more problems with than good WRs and most importantly they create massive pressure with their defensive ends. Sidenote - can we talk about Chris Canty's facemask for a second? I'm sure he wears it for some sort of injury reason or something, but it makes him look incredibly intimidating, like some sort of future football robot alien.

chris canty facemask.jpg

All of those things are still true, but ultimately I ended up going with the Packers. Is part of this because I don't want to pick both the 49ers and Giants? Sure, probably. No one wants to watch that game and everyone wants to watch the Saints and Packers. But ultimately I just think that if you give Aaron Rodgers and the Packers a second game against anyone, they will dominate it. In their second game against each divisional opponent the Packers scored with far more frequency. Going from 27 to 35 against Chicago, 33 to 45 against Minnesota, and from 27 to 45 against Detroit (and that was without Rodgers even in the game). Plus, even though they've won a few in a row and have looked solid, I still think these are the same inconsistent Giants that they have been all season. 

Final Score Prediction: Packers 34, Giants 23

January 10, 2012 9:00 AM

Column Awards of the Week (1/3-1/9)

By updating RealClearSports I read hundreds of articles every week but sometimes there are particular passages that need highlighting. And to make these passages more palatable I'm doing them in award form! The awards are completely random and will change weekly.

Column Awards for slide.jpgWell, that was not very entertaining. Alabama won the annual field goal kicker's contest last night and aside from columnists debating whether this was the worst title game of all-time, they will also debate whether Oklahoma State should have been playing in this game and whether there should be a 3-way tie for the national title. Let the bashing of the BCS begin continue!

Plenty has been written about the absurdity of the BCS system but there might not be a better way to illustrate just how crazy it is than to examine the NCAA basketball AP poll. Enter Ron Morris of the South Carolina newspaper, The State. Pollspeak publishes each writers' ballot and here is Morris' most recent.

Oh where to begin?? How about at the very top? Syracuse is 17-0. RealtimeRPI has them as the No. 1 in RPI and also No. 1 in strength of schedule. Ron Morris has the Orange ranked fourth on his ballot. Are they the number one team in the nation? From what I've seen they sure look like it. I try to stay impartial but that's nearly impossible since I did graduate from Syracuse. But I also haven't seen every game the top teams have played. I've watched a few full games and have seen bits and pieces of Ohio State, Kentucky and North Carolina among others. It's not like I've seen every game every top team has played but neither has Ron Morris. It's impossible to watch them all and one game a team can look like the best in the nation and another it can look horrible (Kansas defeated Ohio State and then the very next game lost to Davidson).

Syracuse is just one of the examples where Morris' poll is in the extreme minority. For more on his horrible voting you can read Gary Parrish's breakdown. Why is his opinion so different than everyone else? Well, it has to do with how he approaches it. He is looking at overall talent and how he thinks the teams will fare when the season ends. Most look at a team's current body of work instead of attempting to project into the future. So which philosophy is right? The beauty is it doesn't matter.


Unlike college football, the college basketball polls don't matter. They don't factor in to the selection process for the NCAA Tournament. And Morris mentions this himself when he is questioned about his poll. He doesn't understand why people get so offended since it really has no bearing on who will win the national championship. But in college football, not only does the AP poll factor in but so does the coaches poll. The coaches that are involved in the actual games help determine who will play for the title! It's pure insanity. Oh yeah, and of the six computer rankings that help determine the BCS rankings, only one of those formulas is made public and people have found flaws in it in the past. Truly mind-boggling. So let's turn the page on college football and leave all that vitriol behind and focus on college basketball where a legitimate champion will be crowned. On to the awards!

Continue to Column Awards of the Week (1/3-1/9)

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