Pay Homage to Gamblor - Week 8
Due to a variety of time constraints there no time for anything other than getting right into the picks this week. Last week I made the mistake of picking too many favorites, getting away from the lesson the gambling season has been shoving in my face time after time.
Last Week: 5-9
Season: 50-50-4
Lock of the Week: 6-1
Home Team in CAPS
Broncos (+1) over 49ers (game in London)
This year the 49ers get the lucky title of being the 'home team' in London. Meanwhile London residents get the honor of watching what looked like the two worst teams in football last week. The Broncos started the season as a surprisingly good passing offense, but now they have lost three straight including getting trounced at home by the Raiders last week. The 49ers meanwhile gave the Panthers their first win of the season and have gone to Troy Smith at QB. If we are really trying to spread the game of football across the pond, these aren't the teams to do it.
COWBOYS (-6.5) over Jaguars
It really says a lot about the Jaguars that they are nearly a TD underdog to a 1-5 team that is without its starting QB. It's hard to pick the Cowboys in this situation, but the Jags are just bad enough to lose by a TD here. Yes, they have three wins and the Cowboys only one, but the Jags wins have come against the 26th, 30th, and 32nd ranked rush defenses. If the Cowboys can just slow the Jags on the ground, they should put them away, even with Jon Kitna.
Redskins (+2.5) over LIONS
When this opened at a one-point line I was ready to pick the Lions. This is just the type of game the Redskins love to lose; coming off a win and playing against a bad opponent. But the line has moved in the Lions favor which means people are betting on them. Combine the fact that people are stupid with the fact that the Lions aren't very good and I'm taking the underdog Skins.
Packers (+6) over JETS
As disappointing as the Packers have been at 4-3, they certainly don't get blown out. If Green Bay would stop turning the ball over they'd go back to being the best team in the NFC. The Jets will probably win (although it is about time for the supposed top team in the league to lose), but this is a field goal game one way or the other.
RAMS (-3) over Panthers
Lock of the Week
The Panthers win said less about their ability than it did about the ineptitudes of the 49ers. They still couldn't run the ball and had multiple turnovers. At the same time the Rams played well in a loss and now are back at home, where they have won three straight over teams far better than the Panthers.
Dolphins (+2) over BENGALS
This is the easiest game the Dolphins have had since week 1. The Bengals are certainly capable of putting together a very good game and beating anyone, but they haven't shown that they should be the favorite in this game. The Dolphins have to be due a dose of good luck after being the victim of the lets make sure Pittsburgh gets all the breaks rule. Watch for the NHL to do something crazy to benefit the Penguins to show the NFL that they are the true bosses of this policy.
CHIEFS (-7.5) over Bills
I can't imagine Ryan Fitzpatrick will put up those numbers in back-to-back weeks. The Chiefs have been pretty dominant at home and against the spread overall this season, I'm gonna ride them until there is strong reason not to.
Titans (+3.5) over CHARGERS
Yay Vegas, keep favoring the Chargers! They aren't 2-5. They don't fumble the ball all the time, get penalties at the worst moments and always find ways to shoot themselves in the foot.
Buccaneers (+3) over CARDINALS
Note to Raheem Morris, when you win this game over the Cardinals it does not validate your statement that you are the best team in the NFC. Wins over the Browns, Panthers, Bengals, Rams, and Cardinals make you an average team that can beat teams it should. On second thought, in the NFC maybe that does make you the best.
RAIDERS (-2) over Seahawks
There is no way the Raiders can replicate their 59 point output from last week, it was some sort of perfect storm unlikely to ever happen again. There is also almost no way the Seahawks can improve to 5-2, but if somehow they do you can lock them up for four straight losses.
Vikings (+6) over PATRIOTS
No one has any idea if Brett Favre will play, but we do know there is no way he will sit himself. I think he could have severed leg and still go out there to add to the legend of Favre. The only way he'll sit is if Childress decides to sit him, which he'd only do to prove a point that he is in charge and can make decisions. Of course, he is far too afraid of Favre to do that. Regardless of who plays QB, this Patriots team is all of the sudden more like the 2004 Patriots than the 2007 Patriots and thusly only eeks out wins by the slimmest of margins.
Steelers (+1) over SAINTS
Of all the games I missed last week, I'm most upset about the Saints because I knew they weren't very good this year. In fact I had even said the week previous that they would play really well against Tampa and then fall back to mediocrity. Point being, the Steelers are one of the few elite teams, Saints are mediocre.
Texans (+5.5) over COLTS
The Colts rush defense is bad and the first time they played the Texans rushed for 257 yards. I'm sure they won't be quite as successful this time, but you have to assume they will have success on the ground again. If the Colts lose they will be 0-3 in the division for what I have to imagine is at least the first time since Peyton Manning appeared in a commercial.


