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October 8, 2010 7:05 AM

Pay Homage to Gamblor - Week 5

The big news in the NFL this week was the trade of Randy Moss back to the Vikings. Sure there are lots of interesting angles to cover. One is that Moss is going back to his first team and the memories that brings up as we try to tie any sort of real meaning to it. Then there is the question of if the Pats can possibly stay as good without Moss commanding over the top safety help on every play, thus leaving the center of the field wide open for Welker (they can't). And of course looking at the fact that this means the Vikings are gearing up for a Super Bowl or bust run behind Favre and Moss. But the question that needs to be looked at is, which team does this make you hate more, Pats or Vikings?

First, the Vikings. This one is simple; they now have Brett Favre and Randy Moss. Do you need much more reason to hate a team? I know I can only handle so many selfish guys in one place. It's also likely Moss brings out the worst in Favre which will result in Favre throwing 10 ill-advised bombs to a double covered Moss and leading the league in interceptions.

For the Pats, this move reeks of that overconfident cockiness we've come to hate. I understand that they are trying to get younger and that it was unlikely they'd re-sign Moss for next season anyway. The Patriots front office is obviously taking the approach of getting something for him now before they lose him for nothing in the offseason, but that's an attitude to take when you are not a playoff contender. The Pats can't win the Super Bowl without Moss; they need him to make their offense function at its top level and to win this year it had to be the offense that made the charge. Yeah, they won with worse receivers than they have now in the past, but those Super Bowl teams were built on great defense, something this Patriots team severely lacks. Instead the Patriots are cocky enough to think they can win the Super Bowl without Moss while restocking at the same time. Tom Brady is 33, they need to make their run at another Super Bowl in the next three years and that means keeping players like Moss, not jettisoning them for mid-round draft picks. But Belichick and the Pats are so full of themselves they will never realize this until it is too late.

In the rest of the NFL underdogs keep paying off as they went 9-5 against the spread last week. Of course this week I initially liked just about all the favorites, we'll see what compromises I come to in the picks.

Last week: 9-5
Season: 29-30-3
Lock of the Week: 3-1

Home team in CAPS

Broncos (+7) over RAVENS
I don't know what to make of the Broncos or how they are somehow the best passing offense in the league, but they are so it's the best passing offense vs. the best passing defense. Regardless of what happens in this game it's important to note that the Ravens have the best passing defense in the NFL without Ed Reed, who returns in week 7.

Jaguars (-1) over BILLS
This is one of three semi-legitimate chances for the Bills to win a game this season, but they won't. I love that they are changing some of their signals and play calls because Trent Edwards is now on the Jags. The Bills offense is dead last in the league, maybe it would help if they told the Jaguars all their play calls just to switch things up.


COLTS (-7) over Chiefs
Yeah, the Chiefs are the surprise of the first quarter of the season. They are undefeated and the only team to have not fumbled this season. They will end the season with a winning record by beating the crappy teams on their schedule. But what they will not do is go into Indianapolis and hang with Peyton Manning and the Colts who are coming off a loss.

LIONS (-3) over Rams
Remember the Lions almost beat Vick and the Eagles in their only home game this season. Last week the Lions almost beat the Packers in Green Bay. Their offense will put up numbers, and again, most importantly, NFC West teams can't have winning records so Detroit will get their first win of the season.

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Falcons (-3) over BROWNS
Lock of the Week
I think the injury report should read 'Jake Delhomme - Questionable' every week regardless of his health.

Buccaneers (+6.5) over BENGALS
I can't pick the Bengals as a nearly touchdown favorite given the record of underdogs this year but despite being 2-1, Tampa is really bad. It is pretty clear that the Bucs will begin heading towards their inevitable 5-11 record, but they will keep this game close enough to cover.

Bears (+1) over PANTHERS
With Jay Cutler out the Bears are turning to Todd Collins. Maybe I'm sentimental from Collins leading the Redskins to their last playoff appearance but I'm fully behind the Todd Collins era (an era that will likely only last one game regardless of performance).

REDSKINS (+2.5) over Packers
The Packers really just aren't as good as everyone wants them to be.

TEXANS (-3) over Giants
I fully believe that the Giants are incapable of beating good teams without large amounts of luck or fluke occurrences. Assuming Andre Johnson actually plays this week (and doesn't screw over fantasy teams around the country) the Giants have no one who can stop him.

Saints (-7) over CARDINALS
I'm sure the switch to rookie QB Max Hall will turn the Cardinals season right around. How did they go into the season as defending division champ with that set of QBs? Sweet Jesus Matt Leinart must have been awful or pure evil for them to let him go.

RAIDERS (+6) over Chargers
The Chargers have blown out two bad teams at home and lost to two mediocre teams on the road. Even though the Raiders are bad I'm not willing to give the Chargers six points to any football team on the road, except of course the Bills but they hardly count as a football team.

Titans (+7) over COWBOYS
The Cowboys play one good game, have a bye week, and suddenly everyone is all over them. This spread seems completely unwarranted. Also, Chris Johnson is due for a big week because it seems he has decided to alternate between 2009 Chris Johnson's awesomeness and the inevitable 2011 Chris Johnson sucktastrophe.

Eagles (-3.5) over 49ERS
If ever there were a time for the 49ers to turn the corner and head to that 7-9 record they need to win the NFC West this would be that time. The Eagles will be missing their starting QB and likely their starting RB and the game is in SF. But sadly, it has become apparent that there will be no time in which the 49ers turn any corner this season; unless they fire Mike Singletary and proceed to hire him right back to be interim coach.

Vikings (+4) over JETS
The trends I've been noticing this season tell me to take the Vikings. Always bet against the top team in the power rankings and try at all costs to take the underdog. Even though I have a sneaking suspicion we will be seeing a lot of this face on Monday, I'm sticking with Minnesota.

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