Pay Homage to Gamblor - Week 7
For another example of how weird the NFL is this season, lets look to the standings. Nine teams are 4-2, five more are 3-2, meanwhile only three teams are 2-4 (and they all reside in the AFC west) and only six teams are worse than 2-4. In the AFC only two teams are really out of the playoff hunt, and I think we can all agree Buffalo and Cleveland were out of the playoff hunt as long ago as April (when they officially didn't land McNabb).
In the NFC things are even more muddled if for no other reason than no one is very good. You can probably count out the Panthers, but that's about it. The 49ers are alive at 1-5 thanks to a fairly easy remaining schedule and being in the NFC West, where 8-8 will likely win the division. Even the Lions are alive at 1-5 because the Bears are making sure to let anyone who wants to sack Jay Cutler have the chance to do so, the Packers have officially all of their players injured, and the Vikings are hanging on by a thread. The Cowboys are on life support, but have the talent to still string together enough wins to get back in the hunt. It's possible the best record in the NFC will be 11-5; for comparison, just two seasons ago the Patriots didn't make the playoffs with an 11-5 record.
Last Week: 7-6-1 (I'm giving myself a loss on the Packers game, although there was no spread around when I picked it due to injury questions)
Season: 45-41-4
Lock of the Week: 5-1
Home team in CAPS
Steelers (-3) over DOLPHINS
The Dolphins got a semi-impressive win in Green Bay last week, but it really wasn't as good as it seemed. First of all the Packers were without Clay Matthews which makes their defense significantly worse. Secondly, the win wasn't as much a sign of the Dolphins putting things together as it was a sign of how much better the AFC is than the NFC. We haven't had a bad Super Bowl in a while, but expect Super Bowl XLV to look an awful lot like Super Bowl XXXV, which isn't good for anyone (except the AFC Champion).
Oh and hey James Harrison, nice retirement bluff, you really had me going there [incredible overuse of sarcasm].
FALCONS (-3.5) over Bengals
Lock of the Week
I know the AFC is much better than the NFC and all, but there are limits to that theory. The Bengals are not good unless they are playing the Ravens, when they all of a sudden look like an elite defense.
CHIEFS (XX) over Jaguars
This game has no spread available because no one has any idea who the Jags will attempt to play at QB. Judging from what little I saw of the Monday night game, perhaps their best choice would be no one. Trent Edwards had a 40.3 rating, beating out concussed David Garrard's 33.0 rating. Garrard's concussion likely will keep him out and Edwards has a sprained thumb and a case of not being good at football which leaves him questionable. So the Jags are forced to turn to either Todd Bouman or Patrick Ramsey. Yikes. This is sentence I didn't think I would be typing this season, but I'm not sure you could favor the Chiefs by enough points in this game.
Eagles (+3) over TITANS
Somehow the Titans have the most points in the NFL, but that does not make them a good football team. Although they have run all over the NFC East thus far, beating both the Cowboys and Giants on the road, so who knows, maybe they are really good, but I'm not buying that idea just yet.
Redskins (+3) over BEARS
The Mike Martz honeymoon in Chicago was short lived. Three weeks ago the Bears were unbeaten and Martz offense was being praised; now the Chicago media is panning Martz as the Bears have let up 19 sacks in the last three games. The Bears simply don't have a talented enough O-line to run Martz pass-happy system; a fact that I'm sure has Brian Orakpo licking his lips right now.
SAINTS (-13) over Browns
The Saints looked good last week and will likely look good again this week against the Browns making everyone excited about a Saints vs. Steelers week 8 matchup. If the Saints offense can light up the scoreboard against the Steelers then I'll believe that they are rounding back into Super Bowl form, scoring a lot on the Bucs and Browns does nothing to give me any faith in the Saints.
RAVENS (-13.5) over Bills
This will be ugly. The Bills could conceivably complete less than 10 passes and the Ravens should have the ball for 80% of the game as they will just slowly move down the field against the Bills inept run defense.
49ers (-3) over PANTHERS
The Panthers offense is actually statistically worse than the Bills. But switching back to Matt Moore isn't the answer, unless the question is, how can we ensure we let neither of our young quarterbacks develop? Suddenly the crazy claim that the 49ers would make the playoff after their 0-5 start won't seem quite as insane. Assuming they win here they would be faced with three straight winnable home games to get right back near the top of the division.
BUCCANEERS (-3) over Rams
The Rams have put together three solid performances in their last three home games, unfortunately in their two road games they lost to the Raiders and got waxed by the Lions. Of course last week I talked about how bad the Seahawks are on the road and they turned around and beat the Bears in Chicago. Always good to remind everyone at times like these that I am an idiot and nothing I say should be valued.
SEAHAWKS (-6) over Cardinals
Rookie QB Max Hall had an impressive start to his career by beating the Saints. But now he'll get his first experience on the road in Seattle, where the Seahawks are actually halfway decent this season. Fun fact about this game, the winner will be 4-2 and thus already have half the wins they are allowed this season by NFC West law.
Patriots (+3) over CHARGERS
Yeah, sure, the Chargers have been impressive at home, but they beat the Jaguars and Cardinals, not exactly a murderers' row. The Chargers will be able to get tons of yards in the air (as they have all season), but they'll turn the ball over in important situations and play like an all-around poorly coached team. Then take their top two receiving threats out in Gates (questionable) and Floyd (doubtful) and I'm not quite sure why they are favored.
BRONCOS (-8) over Raiders
I really wanted to pick the Raiders in this game, but KYLE BOLLER ALERT
Vikings (+2.5) over PACKERS
The Packers could vault back into some form of their previous selves getting Clay Matthews back as well as having Al Harris and Atari Bigby on the field for the first time this season, but I don't see it happening. The losses of Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley have put too much pressure on the remaining parts of the offense and it is not responding well. I'm sure the Packer faithful will be especially hard on Favre, but last year he had two of his best games of the season against the Packers, so I'm sure he's up to the challenge.
COWBOYS (-3) over Giants
At some point the Cowboys are going to play a game without shooting themselves in the foot. They are ranked third in total offense and fourth in total defense, but they are killing themselves with penalties and can't force any turnovers. I predict they get it together for this one game, but struggle with the same issues on and off for the rest of the season.


