A common argument every year is that making a deep run in the Big East tournament can hurt a team's chances to make a run in the NCAA Tournament. The theory is that teams get tired, especially those that have to play more than three games against top-level competition. It's almost as if some experts are suggesting it's better to lose early and rest up. By this argument, UConn should be in danger of an early exit this year due to their Big East tournament success.

Of course, this is a stupid argument.

True, the two teams that have won four games in the Big East tournament (Syracuse in 2006 and Pittsburgh in 2008) have been upset early in the NCAA Tournament, but that's more a result of those teams getting overseeded in the big dance due to their conference tournament runs. The 2008 Pitt team came in as a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament after winning the Big East and lost to 5-seed Michigan State in the second round. In 2006, Syracuse made a run through the Big East tournament as a 9-seed; as a reward the Orange were granted the 5-seed in the NCAA tournament and promptly lost to 12-seed Texas A&M in the first round, but that Syracuse team never should have been a 5-seed.

Four other teams have played four games in recent Big East tournament history (West Virginia in 2005, Pitt in 2006, Syracuse in 2009, and Georgetown in 2010), winning three before losing in the conference championship. Last year's Georgetown team lost to 14-seed Ohio in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The '09 Cuse and '06 Pitt teams held their seeds as a 3 and a 5, respectively. But the 2005 WVU team made a run to the Elite Eight as a 7-seed before falling to top-seeded Louisville in OT.

So of the six teams who have played four Big East tournament games in the past six years, three have been upset, two have held seed, and only one has broken seed, but that's hardly enough evidence to suggest that doing well in the Big East tournament bodes poorly for a team's NCAA chances.

The following chart compares the number of games a team has played in the Big East tournament in the past six years to their winning percentage in the NCAA tournament.

There are differences here, but nothing major. The data would suggest that playing three games in the Big East tournament leads to the best performances, but there is far more that needs to be taken into account. The top four seeds in the Big East tournament can play no more than three games, so teams that finished near the top of the Big East and made it to the conference championship are in a better position to do well in the NCAA Tournament than most teams, hence the higher winning percentage.

To be fair, there simply isn't enough data to determine if making an extended run in the Big East tournament helps or hurts a team. Clearly making a run in the Big East tournament did not hurt West Virginia last year or Georgetown in 2007. But no team has ever played five games in the Big East tournament; so if UConn wins tonight there is no direct comparison. Regardless, I'm pretty sure the Huskies would still try to win tonight no matter what the data says.