Pay Homage to Gamblor: Week 1
Are you ready for some football? Because me, I'm not really all that ready for it. Or at least, I'm not pumped for it. The lockout had a strange effect on the NFL, the offseason, and people's opinions of the league, but eventually everyone jumped back into the NFL's arms without regret. Not me, at least not entirely, not yet.
It's not that I'm mad at the NFL owners or players for the lockout, I understood both sides and was fine with it as a reasonable business disagreement. They didn't miss any regular season games so I'm not bitter towards the league either. In the end I just feel burned out. With the constant news coverage of the lockout the NFL never left the public eye, and consequently due to my job I had to hear about it and read about it constantly (not trying to complain, I understand reading about the NFL lockout is still better than pouring over pivot tables and market reports). I didn't get any time to unwind and get away from NFL news, focus on basketball and hockey, and then slowly ramp myself up into a feverish football fervor over the course of the summer.
It probably doesn't help that my Redskins are preparing to embark on a 6-10 season led by the Sex Cannon himself, Rex Grossman. Of course, don't tell Grossman the Skins prospects are dim, as he's confident they'll win the NFC East and contend for a Super Bowl. While it's good of him to be as over-confident and delusional as most Redskins fans, it's another year of tempered expectations for me.
All that said once the season actually starts and I place some money down, follow my three fantasy football teams and ultimately realize that I don't do things or ever really leave my house I'll join the rest of America and re-embrace the NFL. Plus I'll need something to watch while I'm drinking.
Once again I failed to hit the .500 mark last season, so you if you are looking to me for actual gambling advice you might be better off asking your dog or putting all your money on black (actual gambling advice - always bet on black).
Last Season: 122-126-6
Locks of the Week: 14-3
Home team in CAPS
PACKERS (-4) over Saints
The NFL is not stupid. That is why they put possibly the two most exciting offenses in the league up against each other for their opener. They then reinforced their dominance by making Obama push his speech time up so that it wouldn't conflict with this game. If there is any way they can ensure this game will be 46-40 with 973 total passing yards, they'll do it.
Steelers (+2.5) over RAVENS
It's the Ravens and the Steelers, so someone is going to win by three points like they have five of their last six regular season meetings. And the one game that wasn't decided by three points was decided by four. When teams play this close it's best just to not think too hard about it and take the points.
Lions (+2) over BUCCANEERS
It's the all upside bowl as a lot of people think these are two young teams poised to become new contenders this year. Everyone is particularly in love with the Lions, but before anyone gets too excited they should remember that they are still the Lions. They have a QB who can't stay healthy and as promising as their defense is they only finished ranked 21st last year. They'll really need new LB Stephen Tulloch to stop the run, something they struggled to do last year. All that taken into account, I think the Bucs will regress this year, putting back to back seasons together has never been their strong suit.
Falcons (-3) over BEARS
If you were to encapsulate mediocrity, interceptions, and disagreements with any QB-WR combo in the NFL it would be pretty hard to do better than Jay Cutler and Roy Williams.
Bills (+6) over CHIEFS
The Chiefs are built to play close games and I don't see this one being any different.
Colts (+8.5) over TEXANS
Without Peyton Manning the Colts are pretty much the Cardinals (but still with a worse QB). That said this spread is too big for nearly any week one matchup.
RAMS (+5) over Eagles
I'm taking the home team with points early in the season. Sure the Eagles have made a lot of great acquisitions and Vick is still an otherworldly talent, but I'm not 100% sold on them. Their O-line needs work and despite his great season last year I'm not sold on Vick being as good again this year.
BROWNS (-6.5) over Bengals
Remember how bad the Bengals were last year? Well in the offseason they got rid of their starting WRs and their starting QB refused to play for the team, not exactly the way to get better.
Titans (+2) over JAGUARS
Lock of the Week
Who knew when Chris Johnson held out for most of the preseason that the Jaguars would be the team with more problems getting the starting roster up to speed? Of course when getting rid of David Garrard makes your team look way worse you were in a lot of trouble to start. Which is to say, playing Luke McCown makes your team a lot worse. When they said McCown would be the starter I had just assumed it was Josh, who knew Luke was still in the league? What's the over/under on how much of the season McCown plays before handing the reins over to Gabbert? I'm going with 3/64 of a season.
Giants (-3) over REDSKINS
The Giants own the Redskins. They've won six straight and nine of the last ten meetings between the teams. Having watched every one of those games while beating my head into a wall it's apparent the Redskins are incapable of playing good football against New York. But don't get your hopes up Giants fans, your entire defense tore its collective ACL.
Panthers (+7) over CARDINALS
As much as I'm sure Cam Newton will struggle in his debut, the Panthers kind of own the Cardinals because they can run the ball and the Cardinals can't stop the run.
49ERS (-5.5) over Seahawks
Set the DVR. Tarvaris Jackson and Alex Smith are playing!
Vikings (+8.5) over CHARGERS
It's September, why are the Chargers favored by 8.5 points? Everyone is talking about how good the Chargers are gonna be this year and how talented they are, but they are more or less the same team they always have been. How many years of Norv Turner do you need to see to know he can't motivate a team?
JETS (-4.5) over Cowboys
The Cowboys are another team that everyone is really high on despite a poor season last year. Getting Tony Romo back and Felix Jones looking good in camp should help, but it won't help their hurting pass defense. I swear it's just because they are the Cowboys. If it were the same roster in St. Louis or something everyone would see this team as what they are - mediocre.
Patriots (-7) over DOLPHINS
To turn their offense around the Dolphins picked up Reggie Bush. So now they are starting a RB who isn't a complete running back to go along with a QB who isn't a complete quarterback. Perfect.
Raiders (+3) over BRONCOS
Despite Al Davis and his heaping helping of crazy the Raiders are not a bad team. They beat the Broncos by an average of 30.5 points in their two games last season. Sure, the Broncos will be better but it will take John Fox more than one training camp to turn the Broncos atrocious run defense around.


