We are entering week 13 and we finally have a somewhat clear playoff picture. Or at least we know which teams are in the running and which teams are more likely to be competing in competitive bocce tournaments than the NFL playoffs come January. If not for some major injuries to important starting QBs the playoff picture would be nearly set.

If Matt Schaub was still around (or hell, even Matt Leinart) there would be little question about the Texans winning the South, as is they will probably still win but at least there is some level of doubt. The only remaining questions in the AFC are can the Jets or Broncos catch the Bengals (the Broncos also have the opportunity to catch the Raiders). The Jets and Broncos have slightly easier remaining schedules than the Bengals and Raiders so we may actually see one of those races come down to the wire.

In the NFC things look a little more jumbled, but if Jay Cutler was still running the show in Chicago there would be little left to discuss. As is the Bears and Falcons hold a slight edge on the Lions, but who knows what to expect from the Bears now. Then there is the NFC East, where the Cowboys hold a game lead on the Giants, but both teams specialize in collapsing in December. That will likely turn into a race of who can best avoid tripping over themselves.

Maybe the Bears or Texans will land Donovan McNabb, but I don't know that such an addition would do much to help either team. This year's remaining playoff races seem to be less about who can rise up and finish strong and more about who can suck the least down the stretch. Not exactly the kind of excitement the NFL can build an ad campaign around.

Last Week: 7-9
Season: 81-87-8
Lock of the Week: 4-7-1

Home Team in CAPS

Eagles (-3) over SEAHAWKS
Maybe now that the Eagles have been essentially counted out of everything they'll play really well without facing any pressure.

Titans (+1.5) over BILLS
Chris Johnson may have finally broken out of his funk, rushing for over 125 yards in two of his last three games. Granted both performances were against bad rush defenses, but the Bills are less than stellar in that category themselves.

BEARS (-7) over Chiefs
Just for fun, let's imagine what this spread would have been if Jay Cutler was still healthy and the Chiefs were still starting Tyler Palko - 15.5 maybe? Somehow I don't see Kyle Orton leading a rebirth in KC, the Bears should be able to win this game with little to no effort on the part of Caleb Hanie.

Raiders (+3) over DOLPHINS
Lock of the Week
I get that Miami has played well the last five weeks, but the Raiders are a legit playoff team with an impressive road record. By favoring the Dolphins by three you are saying this is an even game on a neutral field? No way. I'm not buying that.

STEELERS (-6.5) over Bengals
This line still seems a bit high if you consider the Bengals a legit playoff team, especially if Polamalu is not able to play. However if he is able to play remember that the Steelers are a much better team at home than on the road. Even if Polamalu isn't able to go I'm going against logic and sticking with the Steelers who are due for a big game from Big Ben.

Jets (-3) over REDSKINS
Despite the Redskins return to mediocrity they'll drop this game at home because allowing underperforming teams to rise to their peak is what Washington football is all about.

Falcons (-2.5) over TEXANS
You know things are bad when you have to bring in Jake Delhomme as your insurance policy. And while we are talking about Texans QBs can we all agree T.J. Yates sounds way more like a skater or someone who would be hosting MTV Real World Road Rules Challenge than a QB?

Panthers (+3) over BUCCANEERS
Josh Freeman has an injured shoulder and sprained thumb, not good news for a QB who is already throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. Even though Blount will run all over the Panthers it's unlikely they'll be able to keep pace with the Carolina offense the way Freeman has been playing lately.

PATRIOTS (-20) over Colts
Congratulations to Dan Orlovsky the Colts new starting QB and the first man in history to start games for two different 0-16 teams. They moved this game off Sunday night after deciding that America is not quite ready for nationally televised murders.

Broncos (+1.5) over VIKINGS
Why must you doubt Tim Tebow, winner of football games and sharpener of men?

49ERS (-13) over Rams
Most impressive thing about the 49ers 9-2 record is that they have done it without even playing the Rams yet.

Cowboys (-4.5) over CARDINALS
I'm not sure if even the Cowboys traditional December inadequacies will be enough for the Cardinals to notch a win here.

Packers (-6.5) over GIANTS
The Giants traditional December inadequacies on the other hand will be heavily exploited by the Packers.

BROWNS (+6.5) over Ravens
Watch out, Baltimore is playing a bad team so anything is possible. And by anything I mean anything except the Ravens playing like they are capable of and easily dispatching their far inferior opponent. Anyone who reads my picks on the regular knows I think the Browns are awful, but the Ravens on the road against an awful team seems to be the perfect recipe for a Joe Flacco meltdown.

SAINTS (-9) over Lions
The Saints at home are a beast; I'd be just as scared to play the Saints in New Orleans as I would be to play the Packers in Green Bay. They've won their home games by an average of 23 points, which is an unreal margin of victory. Unfortunately for the Saints they will likely only get one playoff game at home. Their chances of winning in San Francisco are slightly below 50% and of winning in Green Bay in January are close to 5%.

Chargers (-3) over JAGUARS
The talent disparity is just too much. I really want to pick the Jaguars and talk about how Mel Tucker will coach the pants of Norv Turner in his debut, but I couldn't muster up the courage. The Chargers should finally break their losing streak here.