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The Baseball Notebook


August 9, 2010 7:13 AM

Division Showdown: Cards-Reds

RedsCards.jpgIt's showdown week in baseball as we move into Week 19. Three divisions have their top two teams going head-to-head. It starts tonight in Cincinnati, where the Reds host the Cardinals for three games. Let's step back and take a look at the overall profile of each team as we begin this showdown on the Ohio River tonight on ESPN...

ST. LOUIS
This team is very cut-and-dried. They're going to try and beat you with their big guns. The offense is a clear caste system, with four players being threats to get on base and hit for power and the other four being complete liabilities. The big guns are, of course, led by Albert Pujols and supported by Matt Holliday. Right behind is centerfielder Colby Rasmus, one of the more underrated players in the game. And rightfielder Jon Jay is hitting the ball very well. On the flip side, you have Yadier Molina, Skip Schumaker, Felipe Lopez and Brendan Ryan, who scare no one. The lineup was hurt by the loss of rookie third baseman David Freese, who will be out of the remainder of the year. Freese was replaced by Lopez and that injury is a huge factor for this lineup.

Pitching isn't quite as black-and-white, but the staff is still top-heavy. Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia making the Cards a scary opponent for anyone in a short series. Jake Westbrook has been a nice addition, with two good starts since his acquisition from Cleveland at the trade deadline. In setup, Kyle McClellan is excellent, but after that Tony LaRussa doesn't really know what he'll get each night from Trever Miller, Dennys Reyes and Mitchell Boggs. Closer Ryan Franklin holds the key. When he's on, he's elite-level, but when he melts down it can get real ugly, real fast.

CINCINNATI
Dusty Baker's team has more shades of gray than their rivals. The biggest common area is that they are also led up by an MVP-caliber first baseman Joey Votto and they have a good supporting star in third baseman Scott Rolen. Beyond that, the Reds don't have anyone as good as Rasmus, but nor is half their lineup a weak spot. Brandon Phillips has nice power, especially for a second baseman. Jonny Gomes has pop in his bat. Two new players are being integrated into the lineup. After an injury to veteran shortstop Orlando Cabrera, who hasn't been productive for four years, the job went to Paul Janish, who is off to a good start with the bat. Same goes for Chris Heisey, who's getting at-bats in place of slumping Drew Stubbs in centerfield. Ramon Hernandez is getting on base consistently. All of which means the Reds' lineup can go to one extreme or the other, depending on how the new faces play and how veterans like Phillips, Gomes and Hernandez respond to the stretch drive.

The pitching staff is good, although it does pale in comparison to the Cards. The five starters are Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Travis Wood and Edinson Volquez, who's recently back from the disabled list. None are great, all are good. That works well for staying in a race over the long haul, although it can hurt in a short series, when stars rather than depth take center stage. The setup team is good. Arthur Rhodes is one of the best in baseball and Nick Massett is pitching well lately after a horrible start. Logan Ondrusek is a respectable third man. The key is going to be closer. Francisco Cordero is capable of greatness, but he's blown six saves and has a 4.11 ERA. He has to earn his money if the Reds are to make the playoffs. A key X-factor for the staff--Aaron Harang. The veteran workhorse hasn't pitched well for a couple years, but he does come off the DL this month and we can see how he'll respond to the chance to make the postseason for the first time in his career.

Notebook Pick: St. Louis' pitching is still better and they have more players with the experience of playing pressure baseball. I won't venture a pick for what happens these next three nights, but the Cards survive in the end.

Dan Flaherty is the editor of the Notebook Family of sports blogs, published through the Real Clear Sports blog network, offering daily commentary on baseball and previews in college football and the NFL.

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