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The Baseball Notebook


October 6, 2010 6:41 AM

AL Division Series Previews

Crawford.jpgBoth American League series get underway today, with Texas' visit to Tampa Bay kicking off the postseason extravaganza at 1:37 EST on TBS, and the Minnesota-New York game going at 8:37 EST. The Phils-Reds, previewed here in yesterday's NL playoff analysis are in the 5:07 EST time slot. Its days like this I'm grateful Wednesday is my day off, so let's dive in and look at both American League matchups. As we did yesterday for the NL, the four contenders are broken down by ability to get on base, power, the rotation and the bullpen.
TEXAS VS. TAMPA BAY
Rangers

On-Base: Texas chose offense over defense when they play David Murphy over Julio Borbon in the outfield. Murphy's .358 OBP is what the batting order needs to help Ian Kinsler set the table for Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz, both of whom are good about taking their walks. Texas is not dominant here, but there's not a lot of obvious weak points either--it's easy to see guys outplaying their regular season stats, no one more so than Michael Young.

Power: It hasn't been often that Hamilton and Cruz have been healthy simultaneously. Whether they are both healthy right now is something known only to the Texas medical staff, but they are both in the lineup. This factor is the single biggest X-factor in the American League playoffs and why the Rangers are a threat to reach the World Series in spite of having the weakest record in the field. The team they have on the field right now is the best one they've had all year. Vlad Guerrero adds a lot of playoff experience to the table.

Rotation: A huge strength for Texas, with Cliff Lee taking the mound today for the game he was brought in to pitch. C. J. Wilson, Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter are all very reliable the next three games.

Bullpen: They were hurt by the loss of Frank Francisco to a rib injury, but Darren Oliver and Darren O'Day can handle setup duties. The big question is how will the rookie closer, Neftali Feliz, react to the postseason pressure.

Rays

On-Base: Tampa loves to run, so this will be a big area in this series. John Jaso gives the offense a big lift at catcher, with a .372 OBP, and both Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria fill the base paths consistently. After that though, it's anybody's guess. Can Carlos Pena get it going after a rough regular season? How about B.J. Upton? The numbers aren't good, and at least two players need to step it up.

Power: Longoria carries the power end of things with help from Crawford. But this is a very big problem area, especially if Pena doesn't start driving the ball. The power production is very weak, and that's an area that can hurt in the playoffs, when a quick outburst can swing a game and a series in a heartbeat--as Tampa knows from what they did to Boston in Games 3 & 4 of the 2008 ALCS.

Rotation: Another area where depth is a problem. David Price is lights-out at the top. Matt Garza is the #2 man and though he struggled in September, he's got the stuff and he was the ALCS MVP in '08. After that it's a mess. James Shields has been awful. Jeff Niemann hasn't been bad, but he's not going to scare a playoff-caliber team.

Bullpen: Here we come to the Tampa Bay strength and Joe Maddon has done a yeoman's job in using his pen. Rafael Soriano is dominant at the end, closing 45 of 48 save opps with a 1.73 ERA. Ahead of him Maddon has a stable of good arms from both sides, headed up by young Joaquin Benoit (1.34 ERA). If the Tampa starters can get them through five innings, this crew can get them home.

Notebook Pick: I like Texas in this series now that they are healthy. The Tampa strength of the bullpen would outlast Texas in a 162-game season, but a best-of-five series is about frontline talent. Texas has more of it and I think they'll take this one in four games.

NEW YORK-MINNESOTA
Yankees

On-Base: Watch for the contributions of leftfielder Brett Gardner. In a lineup of star names Gardner is a very steady pest at getting on base and creating havoc. Derek Jeter's had a down year in the leadoff spot and a lot of attention is focused on whether the Captain can have another big October run. The power guys--Teixeira & A-Rod--each have a good batting eye. Robinson Cano doesn't, but he gets so many hits it just doesn't matter.


Power: Like Jeter, A-Rod's production was down from his usual levels. Teixeira is a good power hitter, but has never been a great one. Cano had a big year as did Nick Swisher. Jorge Posada's always a threat, especially in big games and Curtis Granderson got hot in September.

Rotation: If you've been reading that the Yankees have problems in the rotation, you've been informed correctly. C.C. Sabathia still stands tall at the ace spot, but Andy Pettite has struggled since returning from the DL and Phil Hughes may be running out of gas. A.J. Burnett, who won three big postseason games last year, has been a complete train wreck this year and will not start in the Division Series.

Bullpen: All season long, the setup crew was in disarray while reliable Mariano bailed everyone out. In September, Joe Girardi seemed to get things worked out up front, with Kerry Wood and Boone Logan pitching well. But Mariano blew some saves--more alarming is the fact that he's showing signs of fatigue in taking care of the two-inning saves he so long racked up. It's an area of concern, although I'm not ready to read too much into some problems in one month of mostly meaningless games.

Twins

On-Base: No team got a bigger spark from its farm system than Minnesota did when they called up Danny Valencia to play third. He had a .351 on-base percentage and gave the Twins another way to keep runners on the basepaths. In general, when it comes to table-setting, Ron Gardenhire's going to need a couple guys to play past their regular season numbers. Good candidates to do so include Orlando Hudson, Denard Span and Delmon Young. The latter two would be particularly helpful, as they can make things happen on the basepaths. And lest we forget, Joe Mauer churned out another .400-plus OBP year.

Power: They were certainly hurt by the midseason loss of Justin Morneau to a concussion, although the team rallied together to pull away in the Central. Now they really need someone else to step up. Mauer and veteran DH Jim Thome have sock, Young can surprise you and Span isn't bad. But a good series from Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel is reasonable to hope for and needed if the Twins are going to produce the runs they need.

Rotation: Pretty solid top-to-bottom, although Francisco Liriano is the weakest of the four aces going in American League Game 1s. Carl Pavano has rejuvenated his career in Minnesota, no doubt to the consternation of fans in the Bronx, who watched him basically steal the Steinbrenners' money for four years. Brian Duensing first showed his stuff with great bullpen work, then moved to the rotation and has done a fantastic job there. Game 4 starter Nick Blackburn has a 5.42 ERA, but note that the last two months have been his best and his previous seasons have been much better. It looks like April-July was a blip on the radar screen.

Bullpen: Similar to the rotation, the Twins have good depth, without the single arm that scares you. They have three guys who've been closers and Brian Fuentes officially holds the job. Matt Capps and Jon Rauch have also pitched well this season. Matt Guerrier is very steady as a regular setup man. And for the playoffs, Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker will drop down from the rotation and can provide help in long relief or in extra innings.

Notebook Pick: Boy, is this one tough to call Minnesota has the depth everywhere, while New York, especially in the rotation, is so reliant on stars. The Twins were built for the long haul. The Yankees were bought--I mean built--for October. The key lies here--Minnesota needs to beat Sabathia one time. If they do that, they'll win 2 of 3 from the others. But I think the big guy can put the Yankees on his back and they survive the first five-game Division Series since 2005.

Image from bleacherreport.com

Dan Flaherty is the editor of the Sports Notebook Family, published through the Real Clear Sports Blog Network, offering daily MLB playoff coverageand game analysis in college football and the NFL

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