East & Southeast Regional Overview
The expanded NCAA Tournament tips off tonight as play begins in the East and Southeast Regions. UNC-Ashville and Arkansas-Little Rock meet at 6:40 PM ET for the right to play Pitt in the Southeast and then UAB meets Clemson at 9:10 PM for the chance to play West Virginia in the East. Today will focus on a broad overview of those two regionals...
EAST
Ohio State is the favorite as the top seed in the tournament, although I am picking #2 seed North Carolina to win this region. I think the Buckeyes' key weakness is a lack of quality depth up front. If Jared Sullinger gets in foul trouble or is contained, Ohio State can be exploited down low. Few teams in college basketball have the frontcourt personnel to do that, but Carolina is one of them. Another team that has depth in the post is #3 seed Syracuse, and even #4 seed Kentucky, with Josh Harrelson and Terrence Jones can push people around. The Buckeyes would have benefited more from a bracket that was finesse-oriented and their quality six-man rotation would have outlasted most anyone.
The glut of Big East teams in this year's field means inter-conference matchups, normally avoided until the regional finals (I'm sorry but I loathe the term "Elite Eight") will come earlier this year. One possibility is Syracuse-Marquette in the second round, presuming the Golden Eagles can survive Xavier. The Musketeers' Tu Holloway joins Sullinger as the best individual talent in this bracket.
SOUTHEAST
Pitt's Jamie Dixon is feeling the heat. The Panthers have piled up wins, won Big East tournaments and this year they won the Big East regular season title. But there's one place they haven't been and that's the Final Four. The region sets up extremely well for them. #2 seed Florida is the most overrated high seed in the entire field and #3 BYU is playing without suspended Brandon Davies. I think both of those teams are vulnerable and the bottom half of the bracket looks ideal for a lower seed to sneak out of. UCLA, Michigan State, St. John's and Gonzaga, all intriguing possibilities, lurk as sleepers. The Bruins and Red Storm have played their best basketball late, although each has to move past disappointment in their conference tournaments. The Zags also played well late. Michigan State's done nothing to suggest an imminent run--except for the fact that Tom Izzo always seems to pull a rabbit out of his hat at this time of year. Of this foursome, I like UCLA the best. Tyler Honeycutt and Reeves Nelson make a good frontcourt and the guard play has improved as the season has progressed. My bracket has the Bruins in the regional final.
That would set up a good storyline of Ben Howland, who pulled the Pitt program off the scrap heap in the early '00s, standing in the way of his friend and protégé Dixon. Pitt has Kansas State or Wisconsin standing in its way. A second-round matchup of the latter two would be a rematch of a game in the same round in 2008, won by the Badgers. That was the last time Bo Ryan made it out of the first weekend and he's feeling a little pressure himself to put together some March wins. K-State's played well the past few weeks and Jacob Pullen is the kind of guard who can get hot and win a tournament game by himself for you. The Wildcats at the #5 seed have to be the team Pitt would prefer to avoid.
Image from nbasoup.com
Dan Flaherty is the editor of the Sports Notebook Family, published through the Real Clear Sports Blog Network, offering daily commentary on March Madness and baseball's spring training.
