Why Kansas Will Cut Down The Nets
The Road To Houston starts Tuesday night with the four play-in games from Dayton (I guess we call them first-round games now) and reaches its conclusion on April 4 at Reliant Stadium. I'm picking Kansas to win it all and here's why. The Jayhawks are domaint up front, with the Morris twins, Marcus and Markieff, and in an era of college basketball where there's a premium on elite post players, Kansas is going to have a big advantage on the field. You still need guard play to win it all and UK brings Tyshawn Taylor, Tyrel Reed and Josh Selby to the table. I will admit this is the part of their team that concerns me--the trio has often been inconsistent and if the Jayhawks make another early exit, akin to their shocking second-round loss to Northern Iowa last year, it will be because of guard play. But everybody has some weaknesses and I find Kansas' less egregious than others. Bill Self and his players will cut down the nets on April 4, and mark the school's third national title in the post-Wooden era (1988 & 2008 being the others).
Kansas does not have an easy regional to get through. Though they were ostensibly the tournament's second #1 seed behind Ohio State, they drew Notre Dame as the #2 seed in their bracket. The Irish, also ostensibly, were considered the top team on the two-line. Then you drop down to #3 where Purdue is waiting. JaJaun Johnson's ability to block shots and score down low gives the Boilers a punchers chance in a potential regional final battle with Kansas. Finally the #4 spot goes to Louisville, and while I haven't been dazzled by the Cards' talent, they've got the track record of success in the nation's toughest conference and we're about to find out how that translates into tournament play.
I'm expecting the Big East to live up to its press clippings and for Pitt to reach the Final Four. The Panthers are a #1 seed and while I'm skittish about how inconsistent the frontcourt has been, the defense is there and the bracket is weak. A potential Sweet 16 game with Kansas State or Wisconsin is eminently winnable, and on other side, Florida and BYU loom as regional final opponents. I'm not impressed with either for a tournament run. The Southeast Region will be won by Pitt or it will be completely ripped apart and produce a low-seeded dark horse. In truth, if the Panthers cannot make the Final Four this year, one wonders if they ever will.
Texas didn't look great down the stretch and I'd be lying if I said I've got supreme confidence in picking them to win the West. But I'm taking them because you can usually count one team seeded #3 or lower to make the Final Four and the West bracket does not impress me. As well as Duke played yesterday, they are the more vulnerable of the #1 seeds. San Diego State is in the two-hole and is about to find out you can't go anywhere in March if your guards are AWOL most games. The Aztecs could overwhelm a lot of teams with their forward combo of Kawhi Leonard and Malcolm Thomas, but once they get out of the first weekend they won't work anymore. UConn's in the #3 spot and I don't like taking teams coming off huge conference tournament runs. That brings us to the 'Horns. Jordan Hamilton and Tristan Thompson can match up with anyone down low, and they can muscle Duke in the post if the teams meet in the Sweet 16. J'Covan Brown and Cory Joseph can keep flow going in the backcourt and Texas makes the Final Four for the first time since 2003.
Ohio State is the top seed in the entire tournament out of the East, but I am picking North Carolina in this bracket. The Tar Heels are just a complete team right now, with the frontcourt play of Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller and John Henson, now complemented with Kendall Marshall running the show. The latter being a freshman does concern me--as does the fact he had five turnovers a game in the final two games of the ACC tournament. But freshman success in March is much more common now, as early entries to the NBA have made the sport younger and with Roy Williams on the sidelines, the Heels have a battle-toughened leader. UNC wins the East and then beats Texas in the Final Four before Williams falls to his old school of Kansas on Monday night.
A couple closing thoughts on the bracket overall--I thought Florida as a #2 seed was ridiculous, given the weakness of the SEC and their loss in the conference tournament and Texas falling to #4 was equally absurd. When the Gators were unveiled in the draw, I did a double-take and looked at the TV set again to make sure I hadn't seen them come up as a #7 in the same sub-regional.
The bubble arguments on ESPN last night centered on whether Colorado or Virginia Tech should've gotten in over UAB and Virginia Commonwealth. I was okay with UAB going in--they won the regular season title in Conference USA and given how many bids go to the power conferences I have no problem giving the Blazers a shot. VCU was a tougher call. I had my doubts about Clemson and I thought USC getting a nod was the worst decision on the bubble. So if you want to argue for Colorado or Virginia Tech, I can see it, but let's not do it at the expense of teams who conference championships over the long haul. The power leagues get more then enough chances to play their way in.
In closing, I don't think I can take another Selection Sunday of Dick Vitale screaming about injustices with the kind of fervor that should be reserved for the tsunami victims in Japan or the tragedy in Darfur. Vitale's rant is how the committee is robbing from "the kids" when they don't choose who he feels they should. I'm one of the few basketball fans I know who like Dicky V, but the man needs to get some perspective. His "victims" are scholarship athletes at good schools putting an excellent resume together for their next step in life, be it basketball or otherwise. If you want to disagree with the bracket, follow the model of Jay Bilas, who doesn't act as though he's on a crusade.
Image from al.com
Dan Flaherty is the editor of the Sports Notebook Family, published through the Real Clear Sports Blog Network, offering daily commentary on March Madness and baseball's spring training.
