SEC Preview
Alabama and Florida is the best rivalry in all of sports right now. Now over on The Pro Football Notebook I posited that Packers-Vikings was the hottest, but that's because it's driven along by the soap opera elements of the Brett Favre schism. 'Bama and Florida is a great rivalry right now for all the best reasons. Two great programs, one rich in tradition, the other laden with recent success. Two coaches each at the top of their game. And playing in a divisional alignment that sets up the possibility of a championship showdown every December. Urban and Nick head-to-head. The last two national champions. A recent Heisman winner from each program. They've split the last two championship battles and are aiming for a rubber match this year. What could be better? Can anyone in the SEC upset the applecart?
With that in mind, the Notebook will break down the SEC a little differently. We'll open by looking at the Tide and Gators, then move into a second tier of teams who are contenders, if not to win their division, at least to play in a good bowl game. Finally we'll go to the teams on the fringe, ranging anywhere from .500 caliber to very poor. On with the show...
ALABAMA (West): Now that I've built it all up, let me tear my own rhetorical edifice right back down. There is no way Alabama should be #1 in the country, unless you hold strictly to the view that the defending national champion must be such until they lose. It isn't based on potential this year. The Crimson Tide defense is very young, especially at linebacker, which is vital in their 3-4 scheme and in the secondary where a pair of sophs will start on the corners. The key skill people on offense are back--from Heisman winning back Mark Ingram to quarterback Greg McElroy to the brilliant receiver Julio Jones. The offensive line should at least be competent. This, along with Saban's coaching makes the Tide a very tough out. But that's a far cry from being the best team in the nation.
FLORIDA (East): It's the Gators who are sliding under the radar this time with Tim Tebow now in the NFL. But this is going to be a very good football team. They're experienced and tough on both sides of the line, and the secondary is going to be hard to throw on, with both safeties back in the fold. With a veteran offensive line and running back Jeff Demps, Florida can control tempo and make it easier for Coach Meyer to get new quarterback John Brantley up to speed.
The challengers...
LSU (West): The Tigers look good, but a reprise of their 2007 national title run is a bit far-fetched. They are young up front, with a pair of sophomores having to break in on both sides of the line. Offensively, they have explosive potential with returning quarterback Jordan Jefferson and receiver Terrence Toliver. It's avoiding mistakes and getting a consistent running game that I would worry about. The back seven in the defense also needs a year's experience before being ready to return to the nation's elite. Repeating last year's Capital One Bowl season is a good goal. Winning the SEC is not realistic.
AUBURN (West): Going to the Outback Bowl on January 1 made everyone proclaim Gene Chizik's first year a huge success. I don't share the view that 7-5 and narrowly escaping overachieving Northwestern in a bowl game represents an improvement on the Tommy Tuberville era when this program was among the best in the conference. Still, the Tigers are capable of more this year, even with star running back Ben Tate gone. Four returning seniors on the offensive line will keep holes blasted open. The defense looks like it should be good. While quarterback Cameron Newton is new, he's got experienced targets. Auburn should expect to win more in '10 than they did in '09.
ARKANSAS (West): This is the most likely challenger to Alabama's hold on the Western Division. Ryan Mallet is one of the top quarterbacks in the nation and has an explosive package of receivers to work with, led by Greg Childs. The offensive line should keep him upright although a freshman starter at guard does raise a bit of a concern. The defense brings back experience at all three areas, although they will have to upgrade their play quite a bit. The Hogs were in a lot of shootouts. And from the offensive standpoint, it's hard to look past their mediocre showing against East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl.
GEORGIA (East): The Bulldogs are for real as a challenger. They will be overlooked because of the need to break in a freshman quarterback. But when your entire offensive line returns, completely controlled by upperclassmen and both backs return, it makes life a lot easier for Mark Richt and his young signal-caller Aaron Murray. Defensively, the Bulldogs have the linebackers to make plays in their 3-4 scheme, led by seniors Akeem Dent and Darryl Gamble. With an entirely new front three, making sure blockers get tied up to allow the LBs to function will be critical. The secondary is young, but respectable.
SOUTH CAROLINA (East): Another team that looks ready for a breakout year, although we have been saying that about Steve Spurrier's (and before him Lou Holtz's) program for a few years now and they never quite get above the Outback-Bowl level. The Gamecocks have played tough defense of late, and that should continue this year, with both corners back in the fold, two returning linebackers and a pair of returning seniors up front. And they should be able to score. Quarterback Stephen Garcia was up and down a lot in 2009, but in his junior year he should start to stabilize. Running back Kenny Miles is back and has a decent offensive line in front of him.
On the fringe....
TENNESEE (East): CBS analyst and former NY Giants quarterback Phil Simms has another son taking snaps in the college ranks. Matt Simms will be under center for a new era of Tennessee football. It's going to be a year of hard knocks with zero returning offensive lineman and two new freshman responsible for pass protection. The defense is in a little better shape, but the lineup is populated with underclassmen, including places like free safety where inexperience means big plays.
OLE MISS (West): They've won the Cotton Bowl two straight years, and have some rebuilding ahead, but I have a feeling the Rebs could be a dark horse. They're underrated because the lost quarterback Jevan Snead, who was a disappointment last year anyway, and running back Dexter McCluster. The offensive line is young, but does return three starters. The secondary only brings back one starter, but has three seniors on the top line of the depth chart. Two seniors return at linebacker and the defensive line should be fine. Nutt is a winner, so while he does have a transition year, I think Ole Miss is the best contender in this final group of teams.
KENTUCKY (East): The Wildcats have turned into a steadily respectable program in this tough conference and given fans something to do before basketball practice starts. New coach Joker Phillips, in his first head job anywhere, has a challenge ahead of him. He has to rebuild the offensive line basically from scratch. If he can do that, he's got Mike Hartline back at quarterback, the talented Derrick Locke back to run the ball and Randall Cobb to catch it. The defense doesn't jump out at you one way or another, so getting a line that enables the skill people to go to work on offense is what will decide if the 'Cats get another bowl bid.
VANDERBILT (East): They only won two games last year and zero in SEC play. Improving on that would constitute a significant achievement and the Commodores are not likely to do it. They are very soft on the defensive line, young on the offensive front and have no notable playmakers.
NOTEBOOK PICK: If we look at the challengers and could flip the ones from the East and West into the opposite divisions, this would be a lot more interesting. Alabama's the vulnerable favorite, but I just don't like any of the West's challengers enough. I can see Arkansas beating the Tide head-to-head in Little Rock on September 25. But I can't see them playing consistently enough to close the deal and win the division. Georgia and South Carolina are better challengers in the East, but Florida is too strong to be derailed. It's the Tide and Gators for a third straight year in Atlanta and Meyer takes the rubber match, winning the SEC.
Previews roll again on Wednesday when we check in on the Big 12. In the meantime, scroll down to read more on the Big Ten, ACC & Big East.
Image from Birmingham News
Dan Flaherty is the editor of the Notebook Family of sports blogs, published through the Real Clear Sports blog network, offering daily commentary on baseball and previews in college football and the NFL.


