College Football Saturday TV Preview
Boise State-Toledo (Friday, 8 ET, ESPN)
PVS: Boise State 40 Toledo 20
The weekend starts early as we get a potentially good Friday night
game. How much of Toledo's strong showing against Ohio State was real,
and how much of it was about the Buckeyes. It's worth noting that Toledo
committed double-digit penalties last Saturday and still nearly won in
Columbus. Now they're at home, but coming back on a short week against a
better opponent won't be easy. Even if Toledo plays competitively, the
defensive front they'll face here is too strong and Kellen Moore's
explosiveness is enough that a game can be close and Boise can still
blow it open fast.
Auburn-Clemson (Noon, ESPN)
PVS: Clemson 31 Auburn 28
I can't ever recall a defending national champion being dissed this
badly in terms of expectations. First Auburn was nearly a touchdown
underdog at home against Mississippi State last week, now they're a dog
again in Death Valley, in spite of a big win over the Bullodgs. Clemson
has struggled past Wofford and Troy and offensive guard David Smith will
miss this game. Andre Ellington should have a big game running the ball
for the hosts, but Auburn is still piling up points, even with Cam
Newton in the pros. Michael Dyer and Ontario McCalebb run the ball well
themselves and the SEC scores a road win over the ACC.
Other interesting games in this time slot including Pitt-Iowa (Noon ET, ESPN2), with neither team really looking good early on. West Virginia has to overcome its penchant for sluggish starts when they go to Maryland, who's had almost two weeks to prepare after a Labor Day win over Miami.
Michigan State-Notre Dame (3:30 ET, NBC)
PVS: Notre Dame 28 Michigan State 24
Texas-UCLA (3:30 ET, ABC)
PVS: Texas 24 UCLA 20
Tennessee-Florida (3:30 ET, CBS)
PVS: Florida 30 Tennessee 20
It's time for channel-surfing, a situation made worse for those of us who follow baseball closely and have the crucial Boston-Tampa Bay game on as the Fox telecast at 4 ET. I'm expecting a lot of points scored in the ND-Michigan State game, as the Irish offense can only be stopped by turnovers and their defense is way too soft to stop a Spartan running game led by Edwin Baker. I think ND's offense is so fast-paced that turnovers are going to be a way of life this season, but I also think they will score enough at home against a shaky Michigan State defense to get their first win.
We touched on the Texas-UCLA game in Wednesday's post, and I believe the rush defense of the Longhorns, combined with the revenge factor after the beatdown UCLA administered in Austin, will be enough to key a win much easier than the PVS shows.
Tennessee-Florida is a big game in an SEC East that's open for anyone who can develop consistency and I'm looking for a very good game here. The Vols do everything well offensively, with Tyler Bray throwing the ball and underrated running back Tauren Poole in the backfield. Coming off a three-touchdown win over Cincinnati, Derek Dooley's team is coming together very well. Florida's played excellent defense in a couple wins over Sun Belt teams, but that tells us very little about how good they are. And it looks from here like the passing game is still an issue. The leading receiver right now is running back Chris Rainey and the Gators aren't going to beat good teams unless they get the ball to the receivers. I don't have a strong opinion on who wins this one, but it's a coin flip either way at the end in Gainesville.
The other intriguing game in this time slot (as though we needed more) is Washington's visit to Nebraska, where I'm looking to see if the Cornhusker offensive line can really assert itself against a respectable opponent. And at the dinner hour in the East (6 ET), Navy goes to South Carolina. There's no reason to think the Gamecocks will lose, because the Mids defense isn't good enough to stop Marcus Lattimore, and Alshon Jeffrey should be able to beat the secondary repeatedly and enable Stephen Garcia to put up a lot of points.
Oklahoma-Florida State (8 ET, ABC)
PVS: Oklahoma 29 Florida State 26
I haven't been sold on OU as the #1 team, or even a Top 5 team all year
long. They are a good team, but I'm seeing matchup problems all over.
Florida State's defensive end Brandon Jenkins leads a great pass rush
that will be in Landry Jones' face and corner Greg Reid is the senior
leader of a great secondary that will make it tough for Jones to get rid
of the ball quickly. That, along with the raucous prime-time crowd in
Tallahassee adds up to an environment to create turnovers, and while
FSU's offense isn't going to frighten anyone, it's still a respectable
unit and they ride the coattails of the defense to a decisive win. The
score won't be a blowout, but the Seminoles will have the Sooners at
arm's length throughout the second half.
Four other games are worth nothing in prime-time, led up by Ohio State's visit to Miami (7:30 ET, ESPN, where the fact the Buckeyes no longer have game-breaking talent is going to be exposed, so long as Hurricane quarterback Jacory Harris doesn't start throwing it up for grabs. Utah plays BYU on ESPN2, as we look to get a decent read on both teams in the Cougars' first year as an independent. Syracuse struggled last week for Rhode Island, while USC has yet to really look good, but has also yet to lose. They match up in prime-time (8 ET, FX). Finally for those of you who stay up late, Stanford visits Arizona at 10:45 ET on ESPN, a game where Andrew Luck should take his turn at shredding a Wildcats secondary that was carved up by Oklahoma State's Brandon Weeden last week.
Dan Flaherty hosts podcasts at www.primesportsnetwork.com on Monday (4 ET), Wednesday (3:30 ET) and Thursday (6 ET) to talk NFL, baseball and college football.



