Well, that didn't go according to plan, did it?

The Pirates still aren't very good, but right now, the Rockies are worse.  As usual, the problem wasn't the pitching -- Jorge struck out eight and walked two in seven innings, and gave up two earned runs -- but the Rockies just couldn't score.  Back-to-back homers by Brad Hawpe (his sixth of the season) and Clint Barmes (his eighth) provided all of the Rockies' scoring.  The Pirates didn't muster much offense, but they were able to push across four runs -- the go-ahead run scored following an error by the returning Troy Tulowitzki, and Neil Walker tacked on an insurance run with his fourth homer of the season.  But this was yet another night when the pitching was good enough to win, but the offense just couldn't do anything.

One thing that must be pointed out is that Dexter Fowler batted leadoff.  Not that that's anything unusual, but if Jim Tracy is willing to admit that Dexter is in a slump (he is), why is it that when he plays, he bats leadoff?  Tracy has no problem batting Hawpe seventh right now; Hawpe is hitting like a seven-hole hitter right now (though, of course, he did go 2-for-4 with a double and a homer tonight.)  Yeah, Dex is in a slump right now, and Tracy needs to let him work through his slump, but why not let him do that at the bottom of the order?  I know, it seems like everybody is slumping right now, but why not bat Ryan Spilborghs in the leadoff spot?

Anyway, bad loss.  True, the Padres lost, but the Giants and Dodgers won -- and at this point, the Rockies need to be actively making up ground, not merely letting things stay as they are.  And right now, that involves winning.

Rockies Top Three

1.  Brad Hawpe: That's more like the Hawpe the Rockies need.

2.  Clint Barmes: Tonight might have been better if, say, there had been runners on base before Hawpe and Barmes hit their homers.

3.  Jorge de la Rosa: No, this wasn't a Bad Jorge night.  Jorge didn't deserve to lose this one.

So the Rockies come home from a 2-9 road trip, having lost six games in a row, having just been swept by the Phillies.  They find themselves just three games over .500, eight games back in the West, four and a half back in the Wild Card.

Thank God for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Yes, the Rockies open an eight-game homestand tonight with the Pittsburgh Pirates, owners of the worst record in the National League at 34-64, hopelessly out of any race for the playoffs.  The Pirates are going nowhere, and they'd be sellers at the trade deadline if they had any players who anybody else wanted.

Okay, that's partially a lie.  The Pirates do have players that other teams want, but they're young players, not even arbitration-eligible yet, the building blocks for the next good Pirates team.  23-year-old CF Andrew McCutchen is a budding star, hitting .288/.363/.432 in his second season in the majors, with 21 steals in 27 attempts.  While he's not a great power hitter, he's a solid hitter for average, very fast, and a good defensive CF.  McCutchen is flanked by two other young outfielders: 25-year-old RF Lastings Milledge (.277/.341/.388), who's largely viewed as a disappointment, and 21-year-old LF Jose Tabata (.281/.347/.394), who's just getting his feet wet in the majors.

The infield is likewise young, with 29-year-old 1B Garrett Jones being the oldest player.  Jones has been a bit of a disappointment this season; after tearing up the league for 21 homers in half a season last year, he's dropped to 12 this year, and his ISO power has dropped from .274 to .152.  Slick-fielding SS Ronny Cedeno isn't much of an offensive threat (.255/.295/.381), and 2B Neil Walker (.301/.338/.443) and 3B Pedro Alvarez (.244/.309/.463) are still getting their feet wet.  Alvarez has the potential to be a really good player if he can cut down on his strikeouts (so far he's striking out 35 percent of the time.)  The point is, though, that while some of these guys could wind up being very good, there are no real proven veterans that the Pirates would want to shop around at the deadline.

With Ryan Doumit on the DL, catching duties will be manned by Jason Jaramillo (.149/.229/.216) and Erik Kratz (.296/.396/.550 at AAA Indianapolis.)

The Pirates' starting pitchers in this series will be Zach Duke (4-9, 5.22), Ross Ohlendorf (1-8, 4.39), and Jeff Karstens (2-6, 4.72.)  The records obviously reflect the fact that they pitch for the Pirates, but you can't really argue that any of the three are that good -- the ERAs aren't good, and their peripherals don't suggest that this is any sort of bad luck.  The bullpen, anchored by closer Octavio Dotel and all-star Evan Meek, along with D.J. Carrasco, Joel Hanrahan, and Javier Lopez -- is actually not that bad, though suffice to say the Pirates' offense and starters haven't been giving them a lot of leads to protect.

So, once again: Thank God for the Pittsburgh Pirates.  The Rockies need a sweep in this series.  (Will they get it?  Well, not if they keep playing like they've been playing.  Even the Pirates could beat the Rockies team that's been showing up for the last week or so.)

Salt Lake 6, Colorado Springs 1
Sky Sox: 45-57, 13 GB
W: Barret Browning (2-0)
L: Kurt Birkins (4-5)

After opening the series against Salt Lake with a win, the Sky Sox lost three in a row to close it.  Kurt Birkins (4 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K) pitched fine, but took the loss after a poor offensive showing.  Cole Garner (.302/.375/.523) went 3-for-4 with a triple.  The Sky Sox open a four-game series in Sacramento tonight with Josh Muecke (3-5, 6.09) taking the hill.

Arkansas 9, Tulsa 2
Drillers: 18-12 (2nd half), 1.5 GB
W: Tyler Chatwood (2-4)
L: Greg Reynolds (4-4)

Greg Reynolds (6 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 0 BB, 1 K) struggled mightily and took the loss as Arkansas came back to get a split in the four-game series.  Meanwhile, the Drillers offense didn't do a whole lot.  DH Bronson Sardinha (.311/.442/.527) had two hits, one of them a double; C Lars Davis (.203/.323/.241) went 2-for-4.  Brandon Durden (4-7, 4.73) takes the mound tonight as the Drillers open a three-game series against Northwest Arkansas.

Modesto: OFF

The Nuts return to action tonight as they open a three-game series at Bakersfield.  Juan Nicasio (8-7, 3.85) will get the start.

Asheville 8, Kannapolis 6
Tourists: 18-13 (2nd half), 2.5 GB
W: Tyler Matzek (3-1)
L: Matthew Hopps (1-9)
SV: Paul Bargas (2)

The good?  Tyler Matzek got the win, went five innings, struck out seven, and gave up two runs on six hits.  The bad?  Matzek gave up five walks -- an ongoing problem for the young lefty.  On the season now, Matzek has 40 walks in 60.2 innings.  That clearly has to improve.  In this game, though, it didn't make a lot of difference as the Tourists offense provided plenty of support.  RF Orlando Sandoval (.258/.345/.386) went 2-for-3 and hit his fourth homer of the season.  CF Delta Cleary (.258/.299/.350) and C Dallas Tarleton (.236/.362/.326) each had three hits, and Tarleton drove in three runs.

Spokane 5, Tri-City 1
Dust Devils: 17-21, 5 GB
W: Kevin Johnson (1-2)
L: Ricky Testa (1-2)

Dust Devils starter Josh Hungerman struck out eight batters in four innings, but the Dust Devils offense couldn't do much of anything against Spokane's 19-year-old starter Nick McBride, who struck out nine in six innings.  Jake Skole, the Rangers' 1st-round pick, hit his first professional homer in a three-run seventh inning for Spokane.  For the Dust Devils, SS Hector Gomez (.171/.231/.286) and DH Bryce Massanari (.280/.365/.470) each had two hits; the one run scored on a sac fly by CF Chandler Laurent (.275/.336/.481), who picked up his 23rd RBI of the season.

Billings 7, Casper 6
Ghosts: 16-19, 6 GB
W: Clayton Shunick (3-1)
L: Christian Bergman (1-3)
SV: Daniel Wolford (2)

Christian Bergman had a lot of trouble with unearned runs; he allowed seven runs in 3.1 innings, but only three of them were earned.  The offense almost came all the way back, scoring four runs in the seventh inning, but couldn't quite pull it off.  LF Corey Dickerson (,336/.404/.623) went 2-for-3 with a triple; RF David Kandilas (.263/.288/.394) went 2-for-4 and also tripled.

DSL White Sox 7, DSL Rockies 2
Rockies: 27-18, 6 GB
W: Yorvix Ortega (6-1)
L: Raul Hernandez (2-2)

Raul Hernandez gave up six runs (five earned) and the Rockies offense only had six hits, none of them for extra bases.  DH Juan Ciriaco (.230/.324/.278) stole his 24th base of the season.

Well, this has just been one hellacious road trip, huh?

Things were looking up for the Rockies heading into the All-Star break.  An 8-2 homestand to close out the first half had the Rockies two games behind the Padres in the West, and tied with the Dodgers for the wild card lead.  I boldly predicted that the Rockies would come out in the second half and take the division.  Yeah.  I was that optimistic.

And then the Rockies hit the road to open the second half.  And by "hit the road," I mean that the Rockies proceeded to take my hopes of winning the division for the first time in franchise history and spit in my face about the whole thing.  And suddenly, after a 2-8 stretch, the Rockies are 7.5 games back in the division, 4.5 games behind the Giants (who have suddenly gotten very hot) for the Wild Card, and coolstandings.com pegs the Rockies' playoff odds at a paltry 7.1% -- and the odds of winning the division at 2.3%.

Okay, so the team's playoff chances aren't completely shot, but, ahem, they're not looking too terrific.  We can blame Jim Tracy for tinkering with the lineup too much, but that's too simplistic.  I mean, you can blame Tracy for not letting any of these guys get into a groove, but right now Tracy is probably thinking something along the lines of "okay, none of these guys except for Ryan Spilborghs are hitting, but I need to put three outfielders out there.  Where's my damn dartboard?"  Tracy evidently wants his players to hit, and earn their playing time, but basically the entire outfield has taken the current road trip as an opportunity to suck, so... ummm... that strategy's not working.  I'm all for picking your guys and sticking with them, but when Brad Hawpe has a .259 OPS since the break, you can't really justify starting him, though it's also difficult to bench Hawpe in order to get Seth Smith's .658 OPS in there.

That's what makes the Rockies so hard to figure out.  It definitely seems as though the Rockies are extremely prone to team-wide hot streaks or team-wide slumps.  You can weather one or two hitters going through a rough stretch, but when almost everybody is slumping at the same time, you're not going to win too many ballgames.  That said, aside from Ubaldo Jimenez evidently forgetting how to pitch and the obligatory Bad Jorge start, the pitching hasn't really been that bad; they just can't cover the shitstorm that is the Rockies offense at present.

Anyway, it's tough to figure out just what happened to this offense.  Yeah, they're usually not as good on the road, but they're normally not this bad, either.  Hopefully returning to Coors Field and facing the Pirates and Cubs is the answer, though after the current five-game losing streak, it may be a little too late for that.

Colorado Springs 12, Salt Lake 1
Sky Sox: 45-54, 10 GB
W: Esmil Rogers (2-3)
L: Matt Shoemaker (0-1)

The Sky Sox pounded out 17 hits to back up an excellent start by Esmil Rogers (5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K).  Every Sky Sox hitter had at least one hit; 3B Travis Metcalf (.322/.383/.530) led the way with three hits (a single, double, and triple) and 3 RBI, while 1B Michael Paulk (.266/.351/.401) went 2-for-5 and connected on his third homer of the season, a two-run shot in the fifth inning.  The Sky Sox play the second of four games in Salt Lake tonight, with Alan Johnson (8-5, 5.22) taking the mound.

Tulsa 11, Arkansas 10
Drillers: 17-10 (2nd half), 1.5 GB
W: Rex Brothers (1-0)
L: Ismael Carmona (2-2)

Ethan Hollingsworth's AA debut didn't go well at all (5.1 IP, 9 H, 10 R, 8 ER, 2 BB, 5 K.)  But in something of a surprising development, the Drillers offense picked him up and got him off the hook for the loss -- the Drillers only had nine hits, but drew eight walks and (more importantly) converted all those scoring opportunities into eleven runs.  LF Anthony Jackson (.235/.339/.295) led the way with three hits -- two of them doubles -- and 4 RBI.  The Drillers continue the home series against Arkansas tonight with Cory Riordan (4-4, 3.92) taking the mound.

Modesto 6, Lancaster 4
Nuts: 15-14 (2nd half), 3 GB
W: Alan DeRatt (2-0)
L: Robert Donovan (0-1)
SV: Adam Jorgenson (22)

Like Tulsa, Modesto saw a pitcher make his debut, in this case Parker Frazier.  Like Ethan Hollingsworth a level above him, Frazier struggled (4.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K) but got picked up by the offense, which snagged an early lead and let the bullpen hold Lancaster scoreless.  1B Ben Paulsen (.312/.355/.450) connected for a solo shot in the second inning, his seventh of the year, and DH Jimmy Cesario (.330/.378/.493) went 3-for-4 and hit his fifth homer of the year, a two-run bomb in the fourth inning.  LF Scott Robinson (.223/.254/.319) stole two bases, increasing his total for the season to 23.  No starter has been announced for tonight in the second of three games against Lancaster; it could be Kenny Durst (8-6, 5.77), but it could also be Josh Sullivan (1-2, 6.23 at Tri-City), who was recently moved up.

Asheville 7, Hagerstown 4
Tourists: 17-11 (2nd half), 1 GB
W: Dan Perkins (5-4)
L: Paul Applebee (2-3)
SV: Sheng-an Kuo (13)

Juan Gonzalez (4 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K) pitched well, but didn't last long enough to get the win; that honor went to Dan Perkins, who pitched two innings in relief of Gonzalez.  Last night was all about the offense, though, which scored 7 runs on 13 hits.  1B Jared Clark (.294/.405/.539) went 3-for-4 and hit his 19th homer of the season and also had his 8th stolen base of the year; 2B Angelys Nina (.303/.326/.390) hit his fourth homer of the season; RF Orlando Sandoval (.259/.346/.379) hit his third homer and stole his tenth base.  DH Carlos Martinez (.318/.408/.379) had three hits, while C Dallas Tarleton (.228/.361/.316) and SS Joey Wong (.259/.337/.379) had two apiece.  The Tourists open a four-game series at Kannapolis tonight with Nick Schnaitmann (6-7, 5.30) taking the mound.

Tri-City 13, Boise 3
Dust Devils: 16-18, 3 GB
W: Josh Mueller (1-0)
L: Dustin Fitzgerald (1-1)

Josh Mueller's second professional start went much better than his first.  The 21-year-old righthander, a 13th-round pick out of Eastern Illinois, gave up just one run and three hits over six innings, striking out two.  The offense pounded out thirteen hits, three of them by SS Hector Gomez (.167/.250/.333), his first of the season.  1B Mark Tracy (.245/.283/.340) also had three hits and drove in three; LF Jared Simon (.254/.313/.331) connected for his first professional homer.  Edwar Cabrera (0-3, 3.54) takes the mound tonight as the Dust Devils open up a four-game series at Spokane.

Casper 3, Great Falls 1
Ghosts: 16-16, 3 GB
W: Alving Mejias (2-2)
L: Stephen McCray (2-2)
SV: Juan Perez (5)

Alving Mejias (7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K) had his best start of the season, while the Ghosts offense gave him just enough support to get the win.  A sacrifice fly by CF Rafael Ortega (.321/.361/.446) scored the go-ahead run in the eighth, after RF David Kandilas (.253/.283/.333) had tripled earlier in the inning.  DH Corey Dickerson (.336/.407/.627) added an insurance run in the ninth on his seventh homer of the season.  The Ghosts conclude the series in Great Falls tonight with Albert Campos (1-2, 3.03) taking the hill.

With the way the Rockies finished the first half, it looked like there was a good shot that the team would be a strong contender to win the NL West.

Well, not if the team keeps playing like this.

Notice something?  When Jim Tracy took over for Clint Hurdle midway through last season, one of his first moves was to stop jerking players around and stick with a consistent lineup every day.  Instead of coming to the ballpark not knowing where they would be that day, players came to the ballpark knowing exactly what was expected of them, every day.  Yeah, of course, players need a day off every now and then, but under Tracy, bench players became just that: bench players.  And starters became starters.  Rather than figuring that because some of his bench players were good, he was obligated to play them a few times a week, Tracy mostly stuck with the starters.

And that was what Tracy was doing shortly before the All-Star break.  Yeah, there were a couple of exceptions; Hawpe had to sit a few games because of injuries, Helton got hurt, Giambi literally isn't capable of playing in the field every day, and of course you're going to kill your catcher if you start him every day.  Barmes and Herrera were givens in the lineup every day, as they still are, and Ian Stewart plays most of the time with Melvin Mora getting a start here and there (normally against lefties.)

What's changed since the break... well, what the hell Tracy is doing with the outfielders has changed.  Yes, Jim Tracy has contracted Clint Hurdle disease, and it's not pretty.  In seven games since the All-Star break, Tracy has used five different outfield combinations, and... well, we can't figure out why he's doing it, but it's the same thing that Hurdle used to do.  You've got five outfielders capable of starting for a major league team?  Well, start them all!  And Tracy is worse in one respect; with all the outfield shuffling that went on under Hurdle, you could at least count on Brad Hawpe being in the lineup every day.  Hawpe's not injured any more, but he's still been relegated to being a part-time player.  And yeah, Hawpe isn't having a great season, but why isn't Carlos Gonzalez (who, after all, leads the team with 17 homers) playing every day?  Or Seth Smith?

Dexter Fowler hits a slump and gets benched.  Miguel Olivo is starting to ride the bench quite a bit, not because he's not hitting well, but because Chris Iannetta has had a power surge lately (though, he's still the same hitter he's always been.)  This needs to stop.  Hurdle got in trouble because of the constant lineup tinkering, benching players for a little slump or -- gag me -- swinging at the first pitch.  Yeah, Hurdle was correct that he had more than eight players who were capable of starting, but incorrect to surmise that that situation meant he was obligated to try to fit everyone into the lineup every now and then.  Tracy started out by changing that, but now he's fallen into the same trap: responding to slumps by benching the guy, responding to hot streaks by giving the guy more playing time.  In theory, it sounds like a good idea, but what's really happening is that it's messing with the players' minds.  What, you think you could do well if you knew that an 0-for-4 would have you riding the bench for the next game or two?  These guys are pressing, trying to do too much because they know if they don't do something, they'll get benched.  And when they press... they end up doing nothing, and getting benched.

And when the hitters are doing nothing, you wind up with something like the current roadtrip, on which the Rockies have played seven games and scored 26 runs... with 18 of those coming in two games.  What's the offense doing right now?  Nothing.  Tracy's current managerial style seems to be ruining the offense.  Memo to Jim Tracy: figure out who your starters are, and act accordingly.  No more of this running different guys out there every day, just because you can.  No more playing Melvin Mora in the outfield (seriously, the outfield's crowded enough already; don't try to get Mora playing time there.)  Pick your guys, and stick with them.  It's what you did last year, and it worked.  Now, what?  You think you should be doing the same thing that got Clint Hurdle fired?

I'll be the first to admit that Jeff Francis hasn't been a quality starter this season.  After missing the first month and a half of the season, Francis has been only moderately effective, with some truly awful outings sandwiched around a handful of quality starts.  The net result is that he's really been pitching on the level of his 2008 performance, the last time he was healthy enough to pitch, rather than approaching his 2007 performance in which he won 17 games.

But that wasn't the case tonight.  The Marlins were absolutely baffled by Francis, who threw seven shutout innings, striking out seven and giving up just three hits.  Of course, the bullpen's performance (Jhoulys Chacin struck out the side in the eighth, and Randy Flores struck out two in a hitless ninth) suggests that the Marlins just weren't hitting anybody tonight, the night after they got plenty of offense against Ubaldo Jimenez.

Then again, the offense provided enough cushion that Francis really didn't need to pitch that well.  The Rockies scored ten runs on nine hits and six walks; five of the runs came off the bat of Melvin Mora, who had a three-run double as part of a six-run third inning and also connected on a two-run homer, his second of the year.  Really, just about everybody contributed to this win in some way.  There were no offensive zeroes tonight, and the pitching staff was near perfect.  That was about as good of a win as the Rockies could have asked for.

By the way, the complete lack of information on what's going on with Brad Hawpe continues to baffle me.  At first, it was assumed that he wasn't playing due to injury, but now... well, it almost seems like Hawpe isn't playing because he's not hitting.  It's pretty clear that Seth Smith is deserving of playing time, and he's getting it, but nobody seems to be mentioning anything about why the guy who was an All-Star as recently as last year is mostly riding the bench lately with sporadic pinch-hit appearances.  Hawpe has started a grand total of four games in July, and one of those was at first base.

Rockies Top Three

1.  Jeff Francis: That's about as good of an outing as you can get.

2.  Melvin Mora: Three hits, five RBI... no complaints about that.

3.  Jhoulys Chacin: It's hard to pinpoint another Rockies offensive player who was a particularly strong contributor -- basically everybody on offense was contributing.  But Chacin's perfect eighth inning, complete with three strikeouts, should be highlighted.

While we're not exactly midway through the minor league season (it ends in early September, so we're actually well past the midpoint), right now is a good time to review the preseason top 30 prospects.  Who's impressing?  Who has really hurt their stock?

Note that this is not a new list.  At the end, we'll review some new draftees and other players outside the top 30 who are making a move.

1.  Christian Friedrich: 2-5, 4.94 ERA, 69/28 K/BB in 71 IP at Tulsa.  The record and the ERA aren't good, to be sure, but the peripherals are solid, and a .352 BABIP suggests that he's been having some bad luck.  It's not entirely bad luck, though, and there is some cause for concern.  His Line Drive % is at 22.5% (up from 13.3% last season), so the high BABIP could just be a result of him getting tagged and not any particularly bad luck.  And he did miss some time with an elbow injury, which he did last season as well.  There's reason to be concerned, as some pitchers do dominate in A-ball and then hit a roadblock in AA, but this could also just be a speed bump.

2.  Jhoulys Chacin: 3-0, 1.69 ERA, 21/11 K/BB in 21.1 IP at Colorado Springs; 5-7, 4.09 ERA, 80/35 K/BB in 77 IP for the Rockies.  As good of a debut as the Rockies could have hoped for, and Chacin will only get better -- of course, he won't be on the top prospect list any more as he's exceeded rookie qualifications.

3.  Tyler Matzek: 2-1, 2.44 ERA, 50/27 K/BB in 48 IP at Asheville.  Well, he walks too many people and gives up too many fly balls, but then this is based on exactly 48 innings as a professional.  Still no reason to think that Matzek doesn't have ace starter potential.

4.  Rex Brothers: 0-2, 2.68 ERA, 43/19 K/BB in 37 IP at Modesto; 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 6/3 K/BB in 4.2 IP at Tulsa.  At Modesto, Brothers had a 52.7% ground ball percentage, and opponents hit .164 against him.  Looks to be on his way to being a dominant reliever, though I still don't know why the Rockies didn't try him out as a starter.

5.  Hector Gomez: .167/.167/.167 in 6 AB at Tulsa.  Has not played since April 9.  Injuries are nothing new for Gomez, who missed all of 2008 as well.

6.  Wilin Rosario: .276/.332/.505, 46/15 K/BB in 210 AB at Tulsa; 12 homers.  Obviously very good for a 21-year-old in AA, and his defense behind the plate gets good reviews as well.  Should become the Rockies' starting catcher, possibly as early as 2012.

7.  Tim Wheeler: .260/.360/.397, 76/43 K/BB in 335 AB at Modesto; 8 homers; 16/22 SB attempts.  There's nothing particularly great about Wheeler's stat line, but he's drawing walks and while his strikeout rate is potentially problematic, it's not ridiculous.  A low line drive rate (11.5%) may be weighing down his batting average.  Wheeler still has the tools to be good, but so far has been unimpressive.

8.  Michael McKenry: .302/.366/.462, 44/20 K/BB in 212 AB at Colorado Springs; 5 homers.  The overall line is nice, but it's Colorado Springs -- he has a 1.090 OPS at home and a .566 OPS on the road.  But it's in line with what he did at Tulsa last season.  The bigger concern for McKenry is that he's currently blocked by Olivo/Iannetta at the major league level, and Wilin Rosario (who's potentially a better player) is coming up behind him.  McKenry could be trade bait for these reasons.

9.  Eric Young Jr.: .228/.302/.298, 17/6 K/BB in 57 AB at Colorado Springs; .250/.351/.344, 2/5 K/BB in 32 AB for the Rockies, 4/5 SB attempts.  Currently on rehab assignment.  Young does a lot of things well, especially getting on base and stealing bases, but he doesn't hit for much power and there are concerns about his defense.  I still think he's a better player than Clint Barmes, and the potential combination of him and Dexter Fowler (both good on-base guys with speed) at the top of the order should be too much to pass on.

10.  Esmil Rogers: 1-3, 7.23 ERA, 27/14 K/BB in 37.1 IP at Colorado Springs; 1-2, 4.85 ERA, 28/13 K/BB in 29.2 IP for the Rockies.  The Colorado Springs numbers are ugly, but then it's Colorado Springs, and his numbers for the Rockies suggest that he's still a decent pitching prospect.

11.  Nolan Arenado: .283/.319/.439, 19/10 K/BB in 173 AB at Asheville; 2 homers; 1/3 SB attempts.  Has cooled down considerably after a hot start, but I'm impressed by his ability to make contact (witness only 19 strikeouts in 173 AB) and developing power (only 2 homers, but 19 doubles.)  I've been fooled before by strong performances at Asheville, but I think Arenado is legit.

12.  Juan Nicasio: 8-5, 3.48 ERA, 106/24 K/BB in 111.1 IP at Modesto.  This is obviously good, though Nicasio (who turns 24 in August) is a bit old for the Cal League; in other words, he should be dominating.  Given that, I don't know why the Rockies haven't moved him up a level already.

13.  Charlie Blackmon: .275/.346/.458, 22/14 K/BB in 142 AB at Tulsa; 5 homers; 9/11 SB attempts.  Solid numbers all around, and Blackmon is a good fielder in CF to boot.  Stock rising.

14.  Samuel Deduno: 2-1, 3.66 ERA, 18/13 K/BB in 19.2 IP at Colorado Springs; currently injured.  Injuries and poor control are keeping Deduno from reaching his full potential, and both are ongoing problems.

15.  Chris Balcom-Miller: 1-5, 3.84 ERA, 60/12 K/BB in 58.2 IP at Asheville.  Also has a ridiculous 61.8% ground ball percentage.  This is obviously good, but Balcom-Miller (who was a 6th-round draft pick) is one of those guys who I really want to see at a higher level.  Could be a strong sleeper, but he could also be one of those guys who hits a wall at AA.

16.  Delta Cleary: .256/.307/.342, 25/8 K/BB in 117 AB at Asheville; 2 homers; 5/8 SB attempts.  It's not good that he's repeating a level, and it's even worse that he's not even equalling his numbers from last year at that level (.256/.315/.376.)  Stock down; while Cleary's tools are still impressive, his performance is not living up to expectations.

17.  Chaz Roe: 6-9, 5.91 ERA, 70/31 K/BB in 102 IP at Colorado Springs.  There's nothing really to get excited about here, other than a solid ground ball rate (51.1%.)  That alone could make Roe an interesting candidate for the starting rotation, but nothing else really jumps out at you about Roe.  He's only 23, and still could be a decent back-of-the-rotation starter, though.

18.  Jordan Pacheco: .331/.409/.450, 31/41 K/BB in 329 AB at Modesto; 4 homers; 4/10 SB attempts.  Strong numbers, but he's a 24-year-old in the Cal League, and he isn't a particularly good defensive catcher.  The Rockies should try to find a position where his bat will play; he was a second baseman in college, so why not move him back there?

19.  Kiel Roling: .218/.283/.341, 72/21 K/BB in 252 AB at Tulsa; 6 homers.  Blah.  The strikeouts are bad -- but how is a guy who's got a 25.7% line drive rate only hitting .218?  Something doesn't add up here.  There's still some hope here, but a .624 OPS doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

20.  Cory Riordan: 4-4, 3.82 ERA, 81/23 K/BB in 96.2 IP at Tulsa.  He's gotten better as the season has gone on: his ERA has successively dropped each month, from 5.79 in April to 2.25 in July, and his strikeout rate has actually improved from A-ball last season.  I like this guy.

21.  Parker Frazier: 1-3, 7.52 ERA, 15/8 K/BB in 20.1 IP at Tri-City.   Impressed with the quick recovery from Tommy John surgery; not so impressed with the numbers, particularly the drop-off in ground ball rate (from 51.9% to 46.7%), which is Frazier's calling card.

22.  Darin Holcomb: Has not played this season due to back problems.

23.  Chris Nelson: .330/.394/.545, 31/17 K/BB in 176 AB at Colorado Springs; 7 homers; 2/4 SB attempts.  Nelson finally appears to be living up to his considerable potential, though it's unclear why the Rockies think Jonathan Herrera is a preferable option (Nelson's .272/.325/.422 MLE line would be better than Herrera.)  Stock rising.  Could supplant Barmes as the Rockies' starting second baseman in 2011, though he'll have competition from Eric Young.

24.  Casey Weathers: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 21/5 K/BB in 11.2 IP at Tri-City.  Since has moved up to Modesto, where he's only pitched 0.2 innings.  His stock was down due to Tommy John surgery, which he's since recovered from.  Could still be a solid late-inning reliever.

25.  Al Alburquerque: 1-3, 7.16 ERA, 13/12 K/BB in 16.1 IP at Tulsa; out since May 28.  Blah.

26.  Shane Lindsay: Now in the Indians organization.

27.  Edgmer Escalona: 1-2, 7.50 ERA, 39/23 K/BB in 42 IP at Colorado Springs.  Tough to get a read on him given the difficult pitching environment at Colorado Springs.

28.  Matt Reynolds: 0-3, 2.22 ERA, 51/12 K/BB in 44.2 IP at Colorado Springs.  Excellent numbers all around; has a future as a lefty specialist in the bullpen (lefties are hitting just .172 against him.)

29.  Daniel Mayora: .286/.352/.440, 35/21 K/BB in 234 AB at Tulsa; 3 homers; 4/10 SB attempts.  Solid numbers, but he's repeating the level, and he turns 25 this month.  There's not much time left for him, though he still could be a useful utility infielder.

30.  Cole Garner: .290/.358/.488, 43/17 K/BB in 217 AB at Colorado Springs; 5 homers; 4/8 SB attempts.  Given that it's Colorado Springs, the numbers aren't particularly impressive, and there's almost no chance he can break into the Rockies' crowded outfield right now, particularly since his Colorado Springs outfield-mate Matt Miller is having a better year.

On the radar

Matt Miller: .331/.410/.460, 62/43 K/BB in 326 AB at Colorado Springs; 8 homers.  Numbers are inflated by Colorado Springs (1.007 OPS at home, .730 away.)  And he's 27 and reportedly a bad fielder.

Ethan Hollingsworth: 6-7, 3.45 ERA, 106/23 K/BB in 109.2 IP at Modesto.  Strong numbers, though like Juan Nicasio he's a bit old for this level.  Also has a solid 48.3% ground ball rate.

Eliezer Mesa: .320/.385/.480, 60/29 K/BB in 294 AB at Asheville; 2 homers; 20/25 SB attempts.  Could just be a creation of Asheville's favorable home park (.996 OPS at home, vs. .696 on the road.)  But the overall numbers are solid.

Chad Rose: 5-5, 3.48 ERA, 61/17 K/BB in 51.2 IP at Asheville.  Reportedly throws hard; has the potential to be a lockdown reliever.  Keyword is "potential."

Chandler Laurent: .311/.369/.556, 23/9 K/BB in 90 AB at Tri-City; 2 homers; 8/11 SB attempts.  Solid start at Tri-City, though the strikeouts are a bit of a concern.  His .409 BABIP is a bit ridiculous, but he's hitting a lot of line drives and showing some pop.

Brett Tanos: .354/.416/.481, 17/7 K/BB in 79 AB at Casper; 1 homer.  Acknowledging the strong start, but want to see more than this.

Corey Dickerson: .325/.395/.545, 13/9 K/BB in 77 AB at Casper; 3 homers.  See above.

Eighteen years.  The Rockies have been a Major League team for 18 years, and in that time they've never won a division title.

Granted, winning a division title doesn't mean quite as much as it used to.  Before 1994, winning the division was the only way to get to the postseason; now, there's the wild card, which the Rockies have won three times in their history (1995, 2007, and 2009.)  And the Rockies have even won the National League once, which is better than winning a division title.  In addition, you could argue that winning the division is a smidge easier now that there are only five teams in the division, as opposed to the seven that were in the pre-1994 divisions.

Still, though, it would be a nice accomplishment, to finally do the one thing (aside from winning the World Series) that has eluded the Rockies all these years.  And I think that 2010 is the season for that to finally happen.  Here are five reasons why, despite trailing the Padres by two games, I think the Rockies are the favorites to win the West this season.

1.  The offense.  Among the current starters, only three have been below average in terms of OPS this season.  But two of those are Dexter Fowler and Jonathan Herrera -- the first two hitters in the Rockies' batting order.  Both are seeing their OPS suffer because they don't hit for a lot of power, but they're both good at getting on base, which is more important for a leadoff or number two hitter.  And, I still expect Fowler to improve on his first-half performance, perhaps bringing his average to around .270 or so by season's end -- which, with his propensity for drawing walks, will give him a very strong OBP in the leadoff spot.  While I don't expect Herrera to keep this up (in a full season at Colorado Springs last year, he hit just .268, and he was hitting .286 before getting called up this season), Herrera will only be starting as long as Tulowitzki is out anyway.  Oh yeah, Tulowitzki -- he was having a really good season before he got hurt, and he can only help the Rockies when he returns.

Aside from that, there doesn't appear to be anybody who's obviously playing over their head right now.  Maybe Olivo, in terms of batting average at least -- the highest BA he's ever hit for in the majors is .263, and he's hitting .325 right now -- but the power is real in his case.  This is a team that's so deep that Seth Smith, with an .894 OPS and 12 homers, has started just two games in the last two weeks, and that's even with Brad Hawpe missing considerable time during that stretch.  This team's offense is good, and that's even with Hawpe slumping for much of the season (or maybe just hitting the wall -- as a 31-year-old, "old player skills" guy, he might just be entering his decline phase.)  Carlos Gonzalez is having a full-on breakout year, and again, this offense will only get better when Tulowitzki returns.

2.  The pitching.  Much like the offense is pretty solid from top to bottom, the pitching is solid as well.  Ubaldo Jimenez, of course, is very good, but behind him the Rockies have a few pitchers who can be very good.  Jason Hammel has been very good at times this season, while Aaron Cook and Jeff Francis have been good in the past and Jorge de la Rosa can be very good (though, of course, he can also be very bad...)  And if any of them gets hurt, Jhoulys Chacin might actually be an improvement -- in the first half, he struck out 9.4 batters per nine innings.  And the bullpen is very solid -- Huston Street, when he's on, is as good a closer as any in baseball, while Matt Belisle and Joe Beimel have been very good in their roles this year.  Rafael Betancourt has actually been unlucky this year, with an ERA over 5 despite excellent peripherals, so he could be better in the second half.

3.  The Padres seem due for a correction.  Remember the beginning of the season?  Everybody was pegging the Padres to finish last in the division, for Adrian Gonzalez to be traded by the deadline, and the Padres to be in contention for the number one pick in the 2011 draft, not for them to be in contention for a playoff spot.  While they've certainly looked far better than that, well... let's just say there was a reason why this team was expected to be so bad.

On paper, the Padres don't seem to be playing over their heads.  Their pitching has been legitimately good, while their offense has been just good enough.  Still, though, I watched the Padres play in Houston earlier this season, and, well, I just didn't get the sense that this is a playoff team.  Jon Garland was pitching that night, and while he pitched well, you got the sense that that had more to do with the Astros being bad than anything else.  And the Padres couldn't do anything but scrape out a couple of runs off Felipe Paulino.

And you get the sense that a lot of that has happened this season, as the Padres have struggled against the good teams on the schedule.  The Padres are 4-8 against the Rockies this season, and 1-4 against the Dodgers.  We'll see if their two-game lead in the division can hold up, but right now, color me skeptical on the Padres having the goods to win the division.

4.  The Dodgers' pitching won't hold up.  That's a blanket statement, and the Dodgers do have a very good offense and two good front-line starters in Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, though Billingsley hasn't been that terrific this year.  And Hiroki Kuroda is solid as well.  Still, outside of Jonathan Broxton, is there anyone in the Dodger bullpen who you can really trust with the game on the line?  Maybe Hong-Chih Kuo.  Other than that, though, you're depending on a lot of guys who, ahem, aren't all that dependable with the game on the line.  And they're going to need to, because none of the three of Kershaw, Billingsley, and Kuroda are exactly a work-horse, innings-eating type.  All three are averaging six innings per start, which isn't bad or anything, but it does mean that it's tough to expect them to go eight innings and hand the ball off to Broxton.  And Vicente Padilla has been good so far, but let's not forget that this is Vicente Padilla we're talking about.

5.  The Giants have been terrible against the contenders.  And 30 of the 74 games remaining on the schedule are against the Padres, Dodgers, and Rockies -- three teams against which the Giants are 6-18 this season.  The Giants will go as far as their pitching staff can take them (which, of course, is a long way.)  Their offense is markedly improved with the trade of Bengie Molina (seriously, how'd they get the Rangers to give up actual prospects for him?) but still not great, and they've essentially been a .500 team for most of May and June.  We'll see how they hold up down the stretch, but they're obviously going to need to start winning some games against the other contenders in the West.  Which they haven't done so far.

Right now, the Rockies are in one of those grooves that seem to come around once or twice every year.  And it's amazing that it's coming with Tulo out of the lineup.

Almost everybody on offense seems to be clicking at just the right time.  Tonight, the Rockies knocked twelve hits -- four different players had two hits each.  It's hard to point to one player who's been the catalyst behind the good times, because just about everybody seems to be making positive contributions.

Carlos Gonzalez?  Well, he just added his fifth homer in the month of July -- seventeenth of the season.  Jonathan Herrera?  Oh, he's only started all 21 games since Tulo went down -- and he's hitting .372.  He even had an extra-base hit tonight!  Todd Helton on the DL, too?  No worries -- Jason Giambi and Brad Eldred are hitting.  Eldred hit his first big-league homer since 2007 tonight -- though, to be fair, he'd hit 22 homers at Colorado Springs this year, and 35 at AAA Charlotte in 2008, so it's not like power is unexpected.  Ian Stewart on the bench after two homers the night before?  Don't worry -- Melvin Mora hit his first homer of the season.  Hell, Clint Barmes had two hits -- and two walks!  When does that ever happen?

Yeah, the Rockies are hammering the ball right now.  Okay, so tonight's offensive barrage only led to four runs -- it seemed that when the Rockies weren't hitting the ball over the fence, they weren't scoring.  But no matter; Jason Hammel made sure that four runs were plenty for the Rockies tonight.  Hammel -- who's responded to the possibility that he might be demoted to the bullpen by pitching very well -- continued his string of strong pitching tonight, even with his place in the rotation secure.  Hammel allowed two runs on five hits and two walks over 6.1 innings, and the bullpen (Matt Belisle, Joe Beimel, and Huston Street) totally shut down the Padres the rest of the way.  That, folks, was plain excellent.

So now, the Rockies can win tomorrow and go into the All-Star break in a first-place tie.  One thing that's become abundantly clear over the past three seasons is that you can't ever count this team out.  If they win tomorrow, they'll have erased a six-game deficit in the standings in just two weeks.  That's what happens when you play excellent baseball.  And, wow, is this shaping up to be an excellent race for the division title.

Rockies Top Three

1.  Brad Eldred: On a night when the Rockies were doing very little with runners on, the big fella delivered with a two-run shot that put the game out of reach (what with the way Hammel was pitching.)

2.  Jason Hammel: Yeah, Hammel scuffled a bit in his last inning out there, but all in all it was a solid start.  But seriously, two hits to Yorvit Torrealba?

3.  Melvin Mora: Tracy must feel vindicated about his decision to bat Mora and his .669 OPS cleanup tonight.  Mora came through with his first homer of the year, which gave the Rockies a 1-0 lead.