The first round of cuts from spring training came, and none of the players sent out are really that surprising.

Among the five pitchers sent out, none have pitched above AA.  Juan Nicasio has potential that he showed in dominating the South Atlantic League last season, but he's not ready for the majors.  Chaz Roe impressed in two outing in spring training, but he still needs more polish, and should slot into the rotation at Colorado Springs.  He probably won't be the first player to get called up if a starter goes down -- Jhoulys Chacin, Esmil Rogers, and Samuel Deduno are closer to being ready -- but could become an option later in the season if he pitches well.

The two position players sent out were a bit surprising, if only because their performance suggested that the Rockies might want to take a longer look at them.  Hector Gomez hit .353/.421/.647, and while 17 at bats isn't a big enough sample size to draw conclusions, the Rockies may push up their timetable for him to reach the majors.  Gomez has the tools to succeed in the majors; the question marks have always surrounded his skills.  He still needs to get better plate discipline, but he's closer to being ready for the majors than you might think.  While I'd generally advise to keep a player at a premium defensive position as long as possible, in Gomez's case, he's not going to play shortstop with Tulowitzki having that position on lockdown, so the Rockies might as well go ahead and move him to second to get him to learn the position.  Michael McKenry likewise isn't ready for the majors, though his small sample in spring training was impressive; Miguel Olivo is clearly the backup catcher for the Rockies and McKenry will get some time in Colorado Springs.

Among the other surprises is Cole Garner, whose strong spring should at least have the Rockies thinking about using him as a fifth outfielder, since Ryan Spilborghs is struggling.

With real, live, exhibition baseball games only four days away, it's time to unveil the Coors Effect's preseason list of the top 50 prospects in the organization.  Fifty players is pretty damn deep, to be honest: that's roughly a quarter of the players in the Rockies' farm system.  Baseball America only bothers to rank 30 players; but then again, BA covers all thirty Major League teams.  We're interested in just one.

Players are listed with their current position.  In many cases, that's subject to change, but we're trying to simplify things here.  Also listed is the player's age as of April 5, 2010 (Opening Day, for the major leaguers anyhow.)

50.  Rafael Ortega, OF (age 18): Ortega hit .324 and swiped 39 bases in the DSL last year.  He also showed good strike zone judgment for such a young player.  He could wind up being a lot better than this, but I want to see what he does stateside first.  Projected 2010 team: Casper.

49.  Rob Scahill, RHP (age 23): Scahill, an 8th-round draft pick out of Bradley, had a solid debut with Tri-City, showing good command, but without big strikeout numbers for an advanced pitcher.  Projected 2010 team: Asheville.

48.  Ethan Hollingsworth, RHP (age 22): Split 2009 between Asheville and Modesto and pitched pretty well at each stop.  Like Scahill, he's more of a finesse pitcher than a power guy, and that limits his potential somewhat.  Projected 2010 team: Modesto.

47.  Alving Mejias, RHP (age 18): Mejias dominated the DSL as a 17-year-old and is poised to do more.  As with Ortega, though, I'm not inclined to rank him much higher until I see what he can do in the States.  Projected 2010 team: Casper.

46.  Andy Graham, RHP (age 25): Worked as a swingman in Tulsa.  Could be a starter or reliever, and he has an invite to spring training.  It's a bad sign that his K rate has dropped each of the past two years as he's moved up.  Projected 2010 team: Colorado Springs.

45.  Tyler Massey, OF (age 20): Struggled at Asheville, but he's still young, and the tools are still there.  Projected 2010 team: Asheville.

44.  Scott Beerer, OF (age 27): Absolutely owned the Cal League in the second half of last season; the age is a bit misleading since last year was his first time as a position player.  Doesn't really have a position at this point.  Projected 2010 team: Tulsa.

43.  Keith Weiser, LHP (age 25): Almost the definition of a "finesse lefty."  Weiser struggled at Tulsa last year, though his K rate was actually up from 2008.  Projected 2010 team: Tulsa.

42.  Bruce Billings, RHP (age 24): The numbers say he's a prospect; the scouting reports, not so much.  Billings is at least on the radar screen after striking out 11.1 per 9 innings.  The transition to AA will tell us a lot.  Projected 2010 team: Tulsa.

41.  Will Harris, RHP (age 25): Missed almost all of 2009 because of injuries, but remains a promising relief arm.  Projected 2010 team: Tulsa.

40.  Jared Clark, 1B (age 23): Destroyed the Pioneer League after being drafted in the 12th round... but, to be fair, 23-year-olds should be destroying the Pioneer League.  Will be interesting to see how he progresses.  Projected 2010 team: Asheville.

39.  Mike Zuanich, 1B (age 23): Another first baseman who destroyed the low minors.  The Rockies have an interesting crop of first base prospects coming up through the pipeline, though none are close to the majors.  Zuanich might shift to the outfield to get at bats.  Projected 2010 team: Modesto.

38.  Andrew Johnston, RHP (age 25): Johnston is a sinkerball specialist and is at least somewhat interesting as a potential relief arm.  Projected 2010 team: Colorado Springs.

37.  Joey Williamson, RHP (age 24): Worked sporadically as a starter after being a reliever for most of his minor league career.  Gets strikeouts and limits walks, but doesn't have great stuff.  AA will tell us a lot about him.  Projected 2010 team: Tulsa.

36.  Ben Paulsen, 1B (age 22): Was highly-regarded enough to go in the third round of the draft, but right now, he doesn't have the power you want from a first baseman.  That could come with time, but right now I'm not all that high on him.  Projected 2010 team: Asheville.

35.  Craig Baker, RHP (age 25): Big strikeout numbers in relief in the low minors.  Baker closed for Modesto last year and did well.  Again, the transition to AA will tell a lot.  Projected 2010 team: Tulsa.

34.  Scott Robinson, OF (age 21): Robinson has tools, but his plate discipline needs work, though he still managed to hit .309 last year.  His power is such that he'll only work out if he can play center field.  Projected 2010 team: Modesto.

33.  Kent Matthes, OF (age 23): Led Division I in homers as a collegian, and showed that in his pro debut... but he also showed a propensity to strike out.  A lot.  Matthes is an interesting prospect, but for an advanced college player, his skills aren't that well developed.  Projected 2010 team: Asheville.

32.  Charlie Ruiz, RHP (age 21): Worked as Tri-City's closer in his pro debut, and had a 13.1 K/9.  Those numbers will get you noticed, though Ruiz does have unsettling flyball tendencies that could hurt him going forward.  Projected 2010 team: Asheville.

31.  Matt Miller, OF (age 27): Miller, a career .311 hitter in the minors, has the bat to at least be a fourth outfielder in the majors.  It's his defense that's keeping him in AAA.  However, he could get a shot this year if someone gets hurt.  Projected 2010 team: Colorado Springs.

The Rockies open spring training with 40 players on the 40-man roster, and 22 more as non-roster invitees.  Over the next month and a half, they'll have to winnow those numbers down to 25 players for the Opening Day roster.

Obviously, some of the spots on the 25-man roster are relatively set in stone.  Barring injury or trade, these players will be on the Rockies' Opening Day roster:
Rafael Betancourt
Aaron Cook
Jorge de la Rosa
Jeff Francis
Jason Hammel
Ubaldo Jimenez
Franklin Morales
Huston Street
Chris Iannetta
Clint Barmes
Todd Helton
Ian Stewart
Troy Tulowitzki
Dexter Fowler
Carlos Gonzalez
Brad Hawpe
Seth Smith

So, effectively, the Rockies have 45 players competing for eight roster spots.  And note where those roster spots are: the starting rotation is basically set, unless somebody gets hurt, as are three bullpen spots.  (I'm not including Taylor Buchholz, because we know he won't be ready for Opening Day, though clearly he would be on the roster if he were.)  The eight starting position players are set, as well as one of the backup outfielders.  That leaves, roughly, four spots in the bullpen (assuming the Rockies carry 12 pitchers, which they pretty much always do), a backup catcher, two backups in the infield, and one in the outfield.  And clearly, some players in camp have a better shot at making the team than others.

Should be on the team, but shouldn't be apartment-hunting in Denver just yet

Matt Daley: Daley pitched pretty well in his major league debut last season, and that should make him a strong candidate to claim a bullpen spot, though not a dead solid lock for one.  The main problem for Daley is that the Rockies have a bunch of right-handed pitchers with live arms who could ultimately be better relief options, but probably need a little bit more seasoning in the minors.

Manny Corpas: If he's healthy and effective, Corpas should be in the bullpen for the Rockies.  But health and effectiveness are two things that eluded Corpas in 2009.  While he does generally have good command, his strikeout rate has never really been what you would want from a late-inning reliever.  His strong 2007 is becoming more of a distant memory.

Randy Flores: Assuming Jim Tracy wants a lefty specialist in the bullpen, Flores is probably that guy.  But seeing how Flores is the best option for the role -- Jimmy Gobble is worse, and Matt Reynolds probably isn't ready -- I'd be just as well with the Rockies not even carrying one.  But we have to assume they will, and Flores is probably the guy.

Miguel Olivo: Like Chris Iannetta, Olivo is a low-average guy who can hit for power (23 homers in 2009.)  Unlike Iannetta, he doesn't draw walks (.292 OBP.)  Still, though, the Rockies will probably carry Olivo on the roster to start the year to buy more time for Michael McKenry, and the two Pauls (Lo Duca and Phillips) are probably worse options.

Jason Giambi: Giambi can still hit and draw a walk (we think, at least, based on last September.)  And we're assuming he'll probably make the team since the Rockies did sign him to a major league contract.  Then again, Giambi has basically zero defensive value.  Basically, his only value to the Rockies is as a pinch hitter, and since (unlike last September) the Rockies have a limited number of roster spots available, they might decide this is a bad idea.  Of course, it was only three years ago when the Rockies decided that carrying John Mabry on the roster was a good idea.

Melvin Mora: Again, Mora's on a major league contract, which I think ups the odds that he'll make the roster.  Supposedly, he can back up third base and second base, though he hasn't played second base since 2006.  I feel about as good about Eric Young playing third base as I do about Mora playing second, so I'm not sure why the Rockies did this.  I have a nagging feeling that Mora and Giambi are Steve Finley and John Mabry, Part Deux, but we'll see about that one.

Even-odds to make the roster

Matt Belisle: In the past, the Rockies have usually kept their starting pitching prospects, well, being starting pitchers in the minors rather than bringing them to the majors to work in the bullpen, which is why I think Belisle will claim the last spot in the bullpen.  Belisle as a swingman/mop-up reliever isn't really that bad of an idea, particularly if it buys more time for Chacin.  But he'll have to hold off several other candidates for the spot -- aside from Chacin, there are other live arms like Esmil Rogers and Samuel Deduno, and there's Justin Speier in camp as well.

Ryan Spilborghs: Spilborghs wasn't great in 2009, to be sure.  If he's to have any value to the Rockies, a team with three lefty-hitting outfielders, he needs to do better than the 757 OPS he posted against LHPs in 2009 (I'm thinking more like the 914 he had in 2008.)  Melvin Mora (who should be on the team) can be the righty bat off the bench -- but he doesn't really solve the problem of having an outfielder to start against lefties.  So the Rockies don't have a clearly better option for the last position player spot on the roster.

Eric Young Jr.: Young can run, he can play second base and center field (and could probably play third base, and the corner outfield positions, if needed.)  The problem is the logistics: Mora can back up the same infield positions, and Spilborghs can back up all three outfield positions; and unlike Young, the other two give Tracy some options to play matchups as they'll allow Tracy to sit Stewart and Smith/Gonzalez against tough lefties.  As far as I know, Young doesn't hit lefties terribly well, so this lessens his chances of making the team.  There's an outside shot he'll supplant Barmes as the Rockies' starting second baseman, but from what I've heard this offseason, it would basically take an injury to Barmes for that to happen now.  Young should probably get a place in Castle Rock: that way, he won't have to move his stuff when he inevitably gets shuttled between Colorado Springs and Denver several times this season.

Less than even money to make the team

Jhoulys Chacin/Samuel Deduno/Esmil Rogers: I'd say there's at least a 50-50 shot that one of these three makes the team.  All three are pitching prospects to various degrees, and all three are fairly close to being ready for the majors.  Chacin is the closest (if he's not there already), but he's also the one of the three whose future is clearly as a starter -- Deduno's future is probably as a reliever, while Rogers could go either way.  There would be a lot of benefit to having all three start the season in the minors, but there's also a pretty good chance that any of the three could do better than Matt Belisle in the bullpen.  Based on what the Rockies have done in the past, though, I think that unless someone gets hurt all three will start the year in Colorado Springs.

Justin Speier: Speier has been an above average to very good relief pitcher in the past, but 2009 was a down year -- though his peripherals suggest that he was more unlucky than bad.  Ultimately, he's Matt Belisle's main competition for the final bullpen spot, even though he's 36.  The odds of Speier making the team go up considerably if any of the Rockies' relief pitchers get hurt.

Michael McKenry: McKenry is a good defensive catcher with good plate discipline and some pop, but he probably needs some time in Triple-A.  But with Miguel Olivo being the other option as the backup catcher, a good spring could earn him the backup job to Iannetta.  Still, though, I think the best bet is for him to start the year in Colorado Springs.

Unlikely to make the team

Tim Redding: Redding is specifically around for this situation: one of the Rockies' starting pitchers gets hurt, and Jhoulys Chacin doesn't do enough in spring training to convince the Rockies that he's ready.  Redding would then be a placeholder until Chacin is ready (or whoever gets hurt is ready to return.)

Greg Reynolds: ... or, if the Rockies remember that Tim Redding isn't a very good pitcher, they could go with Reynolds in that situation.  But Reynolds missed virtually all of 2009, and hasn't done much to convince anyone that he's a good pitcher.

Greg Smith: Or it could be Smith.  Smith was sort of effective as a full-time starting pitcher in Oakland in 2008, before coming over to Colorado in the Holliday trade and then missing all of 2009.  The Rockies might consider trying him as a lefty specialist: lefties had just a 663 OPS against him in 2008, and with no starting spots open (and, at the very least, Chacin and Redding ahead of him in the pecking order), he could be useful to the Rockies in that role.  But I don't really think the Rockies will see it that way.

Jimmy Gobble: Why do I think Randy Flores is so likely to make the team?  Because, assuming the Rockies carry a lefty specialist (and don't audition Smith for that role), this is really the only other option.  Randy Flores isn't that good, but I think we can safely say that he's better than Jimmy Gobble.

Matt Reynolds: He's the sleeper to make the Opening Day bullpen.  Reynolds has pitched well in the minors and is left-handed.  With the unspectacular cast of lefty relievers in camp, Reynolds could prove to be the best of the bunch.

Omar Quintanilla: Him again?  Quintanilla was non-tendered by the Rockies this offseason, but is still with the team.  With Eric Young Jr. around, it would take numerous injuries for Quintanilla to make the team this time around.

Cole Garner/Matt Miller: With Ryan Spilborghs' struggles against lefties in 2009, he no longer has a clear hold on the job of "fifth outfielder who can hurt lefties."  Garner or Miller could supplant him, though both have their own issues: Miller doesn't really hit lefties all the well (though he's a generally good hitter, overall) and Garner hasn't played above Double-A and doesn't know how to work a walk.  Still, though, the Rockies should give both a long look in the spring, particularly if Spilborghs is struggling.

Paul Lo Duca/Jay Payton: Lo Duca and Payton have two things in common: they're 37, and neither of them played baseball in 2009.  Both of those factors make the suggestion that they're done a valid one.

Paul Phillips: Phillips should be the backup catcher... at Colorado Springs.  He's in camp, but realistically, he's behind Olivo and McKenry (and maybe even Lo Duca) for backup catcher.

Juan Rincon: Hopefully, the fact that Rincon hasn't posted an ERA under 5 since 2006 should convince the Rockies not to have him on the roster.

That's it for the players who have a realistic shot at making the roster.  The remainder of the players in camp are mostly prospects who are not ready, though some could see time in the majors this season. 

On Monday, we reviewed the pitchers who are in camp as non-roster invitees.  Today, it's on to the hitters.

Paul Lo Duca
Last season: Did not play.
My first thought on seeing Lo Duca (age 37 on Opening Day) on the list of non-roster invitees was: He's still around?  Theoretically, Lo Duca, who hit .230/.301/.281 in 139 AB for the Nationals in 2008, could challenge for the backup catcher spot.  Then again, look at that line and realize that that was two years ago, Lo Duca hasn't played at all since 2008, and that the Rockies have several more appealing options, and you see that Lo Duca is more likely to hang around Colorado Springs and be this year's Sal Fasano.

Jordan Pacheco
Last season: .322/.379/.492, 13 HR, 79 RBI, 12 SB, 44 K, 38 BB in 451 AB at Asheville
Pacheco (age 24) was undoubtedly helped by the hitter-friendly environment in Asheville, but he looks like a solid hitter who draws walks and hits for average and some power.  The questions mostly have to do with his defense.  Pacheco, a converted second baseman, isn't even close to being a good defensive catcher right now.  He's highly unlikely to make the Rockies this season, but could be an interesting prospect in a year or two.

Paul Phillips
Last season: .276/.295/.382, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 18 K, 4 BB in 123 AB at Colorado Springs; .311/.396/.422, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 3 K, 7 BB in 45 AB for the Rockies
Phillips (age 32) is not that likely to make the team; more likely, he's an emergency candidate who will split time with Michael McKenry at Colorado Springs, and he'll get a callup if one of the Rockies catchers gets hurt and the Rockies feel like McKenry isn't ready.

Wilin Rosario
Last season: .266/.297/.404, 4 HR, 33 RBI, 2 SB, 55 K, 10 BB in 203 AB at Modesto
Rosario (age 21) might be the Rockies' top catching prospect, but that has more to do with projection than anything else as he's nowhere near as refined as McKenry or even Pacheco.  He struggled at Modesto, but that was after making the jump all the way from rookie-level Casper, and performed well in the Arizona Fall League, though he still doesn't know how to work a walk.  Worst-case scenario, he's Yorvit Torrealba.  Again, he's unlikely to make the Rockies this year, but will be interesting in a year or two.

Jonathan Herrera
Last season: .268/.353/.339, 2 HR, 33 RBI, 16 SB, 51 K, 49 BB in 381 AB at Colorado Springs
It would take a whole bunch of injuries up the middle for Herrera (age 25) to make the team.

Darin Holcomb
Last season: .271/.348/.411, 13 HR, 52 RBI, 3 SB, 50 K, 54 BB in 479 AB at Tulsa
Holcomb (age 24) struggled at first with the jump from Asheville to Tulsa, but eventually turned things around and had a nice season.  With excellent strike-zone discipline, Holcomb could be a nice hitter, but the Rockies need to see how he adjusts to Triple-A.  His defense also needs work, from most reports.

Jeff Kindel
Last season: .265/.363/.369, 6 HR, 64 RBI, 7 SB, 87 K, 68 BB in 464 AB at Tulsa
Kindel (age 27) is a first baseman who doesn't hit.  That's all you really need to know.

Mike Paulk
Last season: .288/.380/.402, 8 HR, 60 RBI, 7 SB, 69 K, 63 BB in 413 AB at Tulsa
Paulk (age 25) is a first baseman who can hit a bit, but not nearly enough to play first base in the majors.

Omar Quintanilla
Last season: .172/.273/.207, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 27 K, 8 BB in 58 AB for the Rockies
Rockies fans should be familiar enough with Quintanilla (age 28) that I shouldn't have to comment much, except to say that Rockies probably won't feel the need to carry him on the roster all year in 2010.  Yes, you're reading that correctly; Quintanilla was on the roster all season and got 58 AB, fewer than some pitchers.  Quintanilla was also a worse hitter than some pitchers.

Chris Frey
Last season: .269/.318/.366, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 15 SB, 53 K, 22 BB in 320 AB at Colorado Springs
Frey (age 26) is a nice player to have around if an outfielder gets hurt, but the Rockies are going to have issues if he's getting regular playing time in the outfield.

Cole Garner
Last season: .288/.342/.492, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 13 SB, 78 K, 23 BB in 396 AB at Tulsa
Here's an interesting stat: Garner (age 25) hit .330/.386/.557 vs. lefties, though that was in AA.  That alone gives him a chance to make the Rockies' lefty-heavy outfield, but more likely, he'll start the year in Colorado Springs and could get a call if Spilborghs struggles as he did for much of 2009.

Matt Miller
Last season: .319/.380/.476, 9 HR, 98 RBI, 4 SB, 78 K, 51 BB in 523 AB at Colorado Springs
Miller (age 27) has hit at every stop in the minors (he's a career .311/.374/.472 hitter in the minors), but he's never gotten a shot with the Rockies.  The main problem is that he's an outfield tweener: he's not a good enough fielder to play center, and doesn't hit for enough power to play in the corners.  And he doesn't hit lefties well enough (.289/.358/.389 in 2009) to be a platoon player.

Jay Payton
Last season: Did not play.
Payton (age 37) did not play baseball at all in 2009, and only hit .243/.291/.346 in 2008, so he's probably done.  Considering that, among others, Frey, Garner, and Miller will all be roaming the outfield at Colorado Springs this season, the Rockies really don't even have much room to carry Payton at Triple-A.

With pitchers and catchers reporting on Wednesday, the time is here to preview the 2010 season.  In addition to the players on the 40-man roster, the Rockies have 22 players in camp as non-roster invitees.  Most of them aren't likely to make the team; some are prospects who aren't ready (and who didn't need to be protected on the 40-man roster this year), while others are veterans who are likely to hang around at Colorado Springs in case somebody goes down.  Today, we'll take a look at the nine pitchers in that group.

Craig Baker
Last season: 4-2, 2.30 ERA, 33 saves, 75/21 K/BB in 62.2 innings at Modesto
Baker (age 25 on Opening Day) is a future reliever.  He's struck out more than a batter an inning each of the past two seasons, but those seasons were spent in A-ball.  Most likely, he'll open 2010 in Tulsa as the closer there, and is unlikely to see MLB action this year.

Christian Friedrich
Last season: 6-5, 2.41 ERA, 159/43 K/BB in 119.2 innings at Asheville and Modesto
Friedrich (age 22) is likely to be in the Rockies rotation fairly soon, if not this season, then almost certainly in 2011, as he's blown through the minor leagues so far.  But unless a whole lot of people get hurt in the spring, he won't be on the Opening Day roster.

Jimmy Gobble
Last season: 0-1, 5.25 ERA, 1 save, 19/4 K/BB in 12 innings at Charlotte (AAA); 0-0, 7.50 ERA, 10/7 K/BB in 12 innings at Chicago (AL)
Gobble (age 28) appears to be strictly an insurance policy, able to provide some relief innings if absolutely needed.  But he's much more likely to be in the Sky Sox bullpen.  Even if he has a good spring, the Rockies ought to look at his numbers in the majors the last two years (an 8.81 ERA in Kansas City in 2008) and think better of putting him on the roster.

Andy Graham
Last season: 4-4, 4.38 ERA, 73/31 K/BB in 84.1 innings at Tulsa
Graham (age 25) bounced between the rotation and the bullpen in Tulsa, and it's not clear where his future lies, or if he really has one.  With numerous starting options likely to be in Colorado Springs, Graham will most likely pitch out of the bullpen there, or perhaps as a swingman.

Andrew Johnston
Last season: 2-4, 3.69 ERA, 31 saves, 38/20 K/BB in 53.2 innings at Tulsa
Johnston (age 25) is another guy who doesn't have a clear future with the organization.  He was Tulsa's closer in 2009 and could reprise that role in Colorado Springs, but he doesn't appear to be a top-shelf relief pitcher.  He does get ground balls with a nice sinkerball, but that's really something I'd want out of a starter rather than a reliever.

Tim Redding
Last season: 0-0, 2.77 ERA, 9/2 K/BB in 13 innings at Buffalo (AAA); 3-6, 5.10 ERA, 76/50 K/BB in 120 innings at New York (NL)
Redding (age 32) is basically the definition of a AAAA pitcher: he often pitches well enough in AAA to earn a callup when somebody in a major league rotation gets hurt, but isn't really good enough to stick in the majors -- which is why the Rockies were able to bring him in on a minor league contract.  But if a starter gets hurt, the Rockies have better options on hand to take starts than Redding.  He made 17 starts for the Mets last year, largely because the Mets had a ton of injuries and really didn't have any better options to soak up innings.

Matt Reynolds
Last season: 6-5, 2.29 ERA, 4 saves, 87/17 K/BB in 74.2 innings at Modesto and Tulsa
Reynolds (age 25) is a big lefty who could have a future as a LOOGY, or maybe something more than that.  But he's probably not ready this year; like Johnston and Graham, he'll be in the bullpen in Colorado Springs.

Juan Rincon
Last season: 1-0, 1.56 ERA, 3 saves, 22/7 K/BB in 17.1 innings at Colorado Springs; 4-2, 6.87 ERA, 35/26 K/BB in 36.2 innings in the majors
Rincon (age 31) was once a good relief pitcher.  Those days are long gone.  Again, he's an insurance policy: if the Rockies need a relief pitcher to throw some innings (and don't feel like throwing somebody like Samuel Deduno out there), they can go with Rincon, but the Rockies can't consider themselves a serious playoff contender and be giving innings to somebody like Rincon unless the score is already something like 14-1.

Justin Speier
Last season: 4-2, 5.18 ERA, 39/15 K/BB in 40 innings at Los Angeles (AL)
Speier (age 36) has generally been a competent to good relief pitcher throughout his career, but he's posted an ERA over 5 in both 2008 and 2009 and could be done.  Then again, his K rate last season suggests that he was more unlucky than bad.  Speier actually has a real chance to make the team, but with a bullpen that's already pretty well set, he might need somebody to get hurt in order for that to happen.

With pitchers and catchers set to report on Wednesday, the Rockies' Opening Day roster is already mostly set.

It's a far cry from the past few years, when many positions were up for grabs -- or where incumbents in certain places were fighting to hold on to their positions.  As you might expect from a team that expects to contend for the playoffs in 2010, the Rockies don't have a lot of question marks.  There aren't a lot of holes that need to be filled; the cast largely returns from the 2009 team, which won the NL Wild Card and went to the playoffs.  There were few positions where the Rockies clearly needed an upgrade, either; the offense and starting rotation were both solid from top to bottom.

That's why the Rockies had such a quiet offseason.  Jason Marquis left as a free agent; but the Rockies expect Jeff Francis to be healthy and to fill Marquis's place in the rotation.  Yorvit Torrealba also departed, but the Rockies brought in Miguel Olivo to back up Chris Iannetta.  Aside from those two, there weren't really any major departures.  And while the Rockies' farm system isn't terrific at the upper levels, there are enough young players around to fill the holes that will inevitably arise due to injuries.

So, all this leaves, essentially, 12 of the 13 roster spots for position players filled.  The Rockies should largely trot out the same lineup as last season.  Seth Smith is back to serve as the fourth outfielder (and he should play a lot -- the Rockies have been talking about playing Brad Hawpe at first base every now and then to get Smith in the lineup more often.)  Jason Giambi returns to fill his role from last September, as a pinch-hit specialist and (very) occasional first baseman.  Melvin Mora should back up Ian Stewart at third, and Clint Barmes at second.  Look for the Rockies to get Mora some work at the keystone in spring training; he hasn't played the position at all in several years, but the Rockies do think he can handle it when needed.

That leaves Ryan Spilborghs and Eric Young Jr., both fighting for the final roster spot.  I had thought late last year that Young would challenge Barmes for his starting job in the spring, but the Rockies have made clear this offseason that that isn't the case -- though all bets are off if Barmes shows his 2009 power spike to be a fluke.  Instead, with Mora now on the team, Young is probably fighting for the last roster spot.  Both Young and Spilborghs bring strengths to the table: Young has the ability to back up second and center field, top-notch speed, and decent on-base skills.  Spilborghs can back up all three outfield positions at least adequately, and would serve as a needed right-handed bat off the bench on a team that's very heavy on lefties (particularly in the outfield.)  Ultimately, I think Spilborghs will get the job, with Young starting in AAA.

The pitching rotation is simple: Ubaldo Jimenez, Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis, Jorge de la Rosa, Jason Hammel.  If anybody gets hurt, Tim Redding was brought in, but the Rockies should have a solid rotation at Colorado Springs: Redding will join, most likely, Jhoulys Chacin, Esmil Rogers, Greg Smith, and Greg Reynolds there.  Samuel Deduno could also be in the rotation, though the Rockies seem more likely to move him to the bullpen.  Christian Friedrich will start the year in Tulsa and could be ready by midseason.  The Rockies had great luck with injuries (aside from Francis) in 2009, but if that doesn't happen again, the depth is pretty impressive.

The bullpen, likewise, looks pretty solid: Huston Street closing, with Rafael Betancourt in the eighth inning and Franklin Morales also working the late innings.  Matt Daley and Manny Corpas should provide competent middle relief, and I don't feel that terrible about having somebody like Randy Flores as a lefty specialist, with Taylor Buchholz available around midseason.  The Rockies could throw one of the young pitchers -- probably Chacin -- into the bullpen to start the year as well; although the team sees Chacin as a starter, long-term, he doesn't have a lot left to prove in the minors and could use getting his feet wet in the majors as a long reliever.

So, entering spring training, the Rockies are a team with few questions -- and most of the questions aren't important ones.

While the Coors Effect is, always has been, and always will be a Rockies-focused blog, the Rockies don't play in a vacuum.  Entering the season, it's important to know just what is going on with the rest of the teams in the majors; hence, we're going to take a day to preview each of the other 29 teams in the league.  Don't worry -- we'll keep up with any Rockies-related news during this time.

The Cincinnati Reds really aren't as bad as you might think.  While they finished 78-84 in 2009, there's some (note that I said "some") chance of this being a surprise team in 2010.

The offense is led by first baseman Joey Votto, who had a very strong .981 OPS in 2009 at age 25.  Votto might not repeat that this season, but he should continue to be a solid middle-of-the-order bat for the Reds.  Brandon Phillips is another solid hitter, and Scott Rolen, though he's quite a bit off from his peak a few years ago, is still a productive player and a good fielder at the hot corner.

The outfield has potential: Chris Dickerson should be a league-averageish hitter in left, and Jay Bruce has tons of potential, though he hit just .223 in 2009.  I'd expect Bruce's BA to rebound a bit in 2010, and he's already a pretty solid power hitter.  The offense should be improved if the Reds don't give 437 plate appearances to Willy Taveras again, though his likely replacement, Drew Stubbs, has been a disappointment as a prospect.  The Reds also could give a shot to Chris Heisey, who hit for a .900 OPS combined between AA and AAA, a shot somewhere in the outfield, possibly in center.

The pitching rotation is where the Reds really have a chance to shine.  Aaron Harang has been a hard-luck starter the last two years, going 12-31 despite not being that bad of a pitcher.  (He was 6-14 with a 4.21 ERA last year.)  Bronson Arroyo hasn't been that much better than Harang, yet he's won 15 games each of the past two seasons; those two give the Reds two solid starters, though no ace.  Johnny Cueto is a strong number three, and has a good chance to develop into something better than that.  Former top prospect Homer Bailey looked like he might be putting it together in 2009, though his strikeout rate was nowhere close to what you'd want from an ace.  The big question, of course, is what the team will do with Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman.  Chapman probably could use some time in the minors, but with Edinson Volquez likely to miss significant time to start the year, Chapman is probably the best option the Reds have as a fifth starter right now.

The bullpen, led by closer Francisco Cordero, was solid in 2009 and looks to be solid again.

While it's a stretch to call the Reds a playoff contender right now, there's potential here.  The offense should be pretty good, with a very good hitter in Votto, two solid hitters in Phillips and Rolen, and several more who could be good (Bruce, Heisey, maybe Dickerson), with only one real hole at short.  The starting pitching should be solid, particularly if Cueto and/or Bailey can make strides and Chapman is as good as he's hyped to be.

Chapman is obviously the Reds' best prospect, but there's more talent on the farm and, of course, quite a bit of young talent in the majors.

While the Coors Effect is, always has been, and always will be a Rockies-focused blog, the Rockies don't play in a vacuum.  Entering the season, it's important to know just what is going on with the rest of the teams in the majors; hence, we're going to take a day to preview each of the other 29 teams in the league.  Don't worry -- we'll keep up with any Rockies-related news during this time.

The last few years, Cubs fans have entered every season thinking this is the year they'll finally break through and win the World Series.  2009 was one of those years, but it didn't happen, largely because of injuries.  Aramis Ramirez only played in 82 games, and Alfonso Soriano played in 117 (and wasn't the same player when he was "healthy," as injuries clearly robbed a lot of his ability.)  Milton Bradley played in 124 games and ultimately wound up out of town after going berserk over the last few weeks of the season.

This season?  The Cubs have a pretty solid offensive core, assuming a return to form by both Ramirez and Soriano, paired with the always-dangerous Derrek Lee.  The Cubs added Marlon Byrd to offset the loss of Bradley; Byrd is a late-bloomer who's coming off three straight years of above-average offensive production (after being a part-time player for most of his career.)  With Byrd likely to play in center, the Cubs will move Kosuke Fukudome to right, a place where his bat is even less acceptable.

The Cubs do have some issues up the middle.  At short, Ryan Theriot will be as good as a rather empty BA will take him; Theriot draws walks, but doesn't hit for power, and any drop in his BA (he's currently a lifetime .288 hitter) will make him basically useless at the plate.  At second, the Cubs have a choice between offensively-challenged Mike Fontenot and defensively-challenged former Rockie Jeff Baker.  The smart money is on something of a platoon, as the lefty-hitting Fontenot put up a ghastly .553 OPS versus LHP in 2009.  Behind the plate is Geovany Soto, who followed up his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2008 with an awful 2009.  Soto should settle in somewhere between the .868 OPS he put up in the former year and the .702 of the latter year, and be at the very least an acceptable offensive catcher.

The pitching staff should be solid, led at the top by the enigmatic Carlos Zambrano, who has the talent to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.  Ted Lilly is a strong number two, while Ryan Dempster proved that his 2008 season wasn't a fluke.  Randy Wells had the best ERA of any Cubs starter in 2009, though the smart money is on him coming back down to earth in 2010.  Tom Gorzelanny should at least be serviceable as a fifth starter, something that can't be said for Carlos Silva, acquired in the trade that sent Milton Bradley out of town.

Carlos Marmol's horrific control will have Cubs fans sweating the ninth inning, though he clearly has the stuff to be a closer.  The rest of the bullpen is decent, but not great.

The short news is that 2010 probably won't be the Cubs' year.  Too many of the hitters are on the wrong side of 30 to expect a great deal of improvement on offense, even if having Ramirez and Soriano back and healthy will improve the offense by itself.  And while the Cubs have the makings of a solid starting rotation, will the bullpen be good enough to protect leads?

The Rockies signed Jason Giambi to a one-year deal reportedly worth $1.75 million.  Considering Giambi's key at bats down the stretch in 2009 (he hit .292/.452/.583 for the Rockies, albeit in just 31 plate appearances), it seemed pretty likely that he would be back once he decided not to retire.  But this may not be a smart move.

For one thing, Giambi is now 39, and there were signs in 2009 that he was done: he hit just .193 in Oakland.  Giambi still knows how to draw a walk and can hit for some power, but he might hit barely above the Mendoza line.  And his defensive value at this point is virtually zilch.  The Rockies will probably use Giambi almost strictly as a pinch-hitter, and occasionally allow him to spell Todd Helton at first, but that latter idea presents another problem.  The Rockies had originally planned to move Brad Hawpe to first whenever Helton needs a day off in 2010, allowing Seth Smith to get more playing time and, more importantly, getting Hawpe out of the outfield.  This move signals that the Rockies either plan on leaving Hawpe in the outfield (it's not a great idea to carry Giambi on the roster strictly as a pinch hitter, so we can assume that the Rockies intend on using Giambi at first base on occasion) or they plan on trading Hawpe.  And, if the choice is between Hawpe and Giambi, I'd much rather have Hawpe on the team.  After all, Hawpe, despite a second-half slump, is coming off a .285/.384/.519 season, and he's a full eight and a half years younger than Giambi.

So assuming Hawpe stays where he is, the ultimate effect of this move is to take playing time away from Seth Smith.  On the other hand, I'm not really sure how much time Helton will need off: it was widely assumed that Helton would only be playing about half the time in 2009, but instead he appeared in 151 games and racked up 645 plate appearances.  Unless his back is acting up again, I don't see why Helton really needs that many days off.

While the Coors Effect is, always has been, and always will be a Rockies-focused blog, the Rockies don't play in a vacuum.  Entering the season, it's important to know just what is going on with the rest of the teams in the majors; hence, we're going to take a day to preview each of the other 29 teams in the league.  Don't worry -- we'll keep up with any Rockies-related news during this time.

In 2009, the Giants had one of the best starting rotations in the league.  They also had one of the league's worst offenses.  Neither of those has changed much over the offseason.

The rotation remains superb.  Tim Lincecum is as good as his two Cy Young Awards say he is, and there's nothing to suggest any sort of dropoff.  Matt Cain is a very strong number two starter -- he'd be the ace of quite a few pitching staffs in the majors, including the Rockies.  There's Jonathan Sanchez, who tossed a no-hitter in 2009, and Madison Bumgarner, one of the top pitching prospects in the majors who made his MLB debut late last year shortly after his 20th birthday.  Barry Zito may be grossly overpaid, but he's a competent back-end starter (though he's being paid like an ace.)  That's certainly a playoff rotation.

However, there is one drawback to paying your fifth starter $18 million a year, and that's that the Giants don't really have a lot of money to throw around to improve a bad offense.  In 2009, just two regular players posted an OPS + over 100: star Pablo Sandoval, who had a very strong 142 in his first full year in the bigs, and Juan Uribe, who posted a 111 in a utility role (though he did get over 400 plate appearances.)  The rest of the offense slumped badly in 2009, and it's a testament to the pitching staff that the team was able to win 88 games.

The Giants made a few tweaks to the offense, but this was hardly an offense that was going to be improved with a few tweaks: a major overhaul is more like what the team needed.  The team let Ryan Garko walk, presumably because he slumped after coming over from Cleveland in a trade, but they replaced him with Aubrey Huff -- who slumped even worse after going to Detroit in a late-season trade.  Huff had a strong year in 2008, but he's also 33 and is coming off a .694 OPS season -- that's worse than Travis Ishikawa did in regular duty last year.  Mark DeRosa was also brought in, but he'll be 35 on Opening Day and appeared to hit a wall last season, as his batting average dropped 35 points.  The team also re-upped Freddy Sanchez, who at this point is mostly an empty BA guy.

For a team with a couple of holes to fill, these wouldn't necessarily be bad moves.  Huff, Sanchez, and DeRosa have all shown themselves to be capable role players, though certainly not the kind of players you would want to build an offense around.  But for a team that really needed a major overhaul (on offense, anyway), the Giants really didn't do much to improve themselves.  At the very least, Huff and DeRosa aren't that much better than the players they replaced (Ishikawa/Garko and Fred Lewis), and both are at an age where there's a decent chance they'll become pretty useless.  The bigger issue is that the Giants' farm system hasn't produced much premium offensive talent -- or, really, any offensive talent, aside from Sandoval.  Sandoval, Ishikawa, and Lewis were the only regulars on last year's team who were originally signed by the team.  Buster Posey should be given regular playing time in 2010, though the team's recent decision to bring back Bengie Molina calls that into question.

Aside from Posey, the Giants don't have a lot of offensive talent that's close to being ready for the majors.  That's not to say there aren't players with potential, but many of those players are still raw, far from the majors, or have pending murder trials going on.  The pitching staff should be set for the next couple of years either way.