To go under the knife or not
Well, this would alter our season expectations a bit. Jeff Francis will decide on surgery in the coming weeks, whether on February 19 (as his agent says) or at some other point, as Dan O'Dowd says. Surgery might mean that Francis wouldn't pitch at all in 2009.
It wouldn't necessarily be the worst thing in the world if Francis missed the season. Not that I'm saying that Francis isn't valuable, or that the Rockies' backup options are as good as Francis. They're not -- check that, they're not as good as a healthy Francis. Remember that Francis went on the disabled list about midway through 2008; prior to the stint on the DL -- which many chalked up to a tired arm -- Francis was 3-7 with a 5.67 ERA. That's what a less-than-100 percent Francis is capable of. No, players like Josh Fogg, Jorge De La Rosa, and Greg Smith probably aren't going to do what a healthy Jeff Francis can do (17-9, 4.22 ERA in 2007), but when the benchmark is what a hurting Francis will do, at least one of that group should be able to do better than a 5.67 ERA.
Losing Francis for the year to surgery, frankly, won't hurt the Rockies as much as it would for Francis to act like he's completely healthy when he's not and pitch poorly every fifth day. It's never easy to replace a key player, but the Rockies have stashed enough pitching depth that they should at least be able to weather an injury. Veterans like Fogg and Glendon Rusch, and young guys like Smith, Franklin Morales, Jason Hirsh, and Greg Reynolds will be in camp.
In short, if the choice is between a healthy Francis and Greg Smith, it's Francis, no doubt. If it's between an 80-percent Francis and Smith (7-16, 4.16 ERA in 2008), go with Smith, and let Jeff get better. We'll see what happens with this.
It wouldn't necessarily be the worst thing in the world if Francis missed the season. Not that I'm saying that Francis isn't valuable, or that the Rockies' backup options are as good as Francis. They're not -- check that, they're not as good as a healthy Francis. Remember that Francis went on the disabled list about midway through 2008; prior to the stint on the DL -- which many chalked up to a tired arm -- Francis was 3-7 with a 5.67 ERA. That's what a less-than-100 percent Francis is capable of. No, players like Josh Fogg, Jorge De La Rosa, and Greg Smith probably aren't going to do what a healthy Jeff Francis can do (17-9, 4.22 ERA in 2007), but when the benchmark is what a hurting Francis will do, at least one of that group should be able to do better than a 5.67 ERA.
Losing Francis for the year to surgery, frankly, won't hurt the Rockies as much as it would for Francis to act like he's completely healthy when he's not and pitch poorly every fifth day. It's never easy to replace a key player, but the Rockies have stashed enough pitching depth that they should at least be able to weather an injury. Veterans like Fogg and Glendon Rusch, and young guys like Smith, Franklin Morales, Jason Hirsh, and Greg Reynolds will be in camp.
In short, if the choice is between a healthy Francis and Greg Smith, it's Francis, no doubt. If it's between an 80-percent Francis and Smith (7-16, 4.16 ERA in 2008), go with Smith, and let Jeff get better. We'll see what happens with this.
