The Coors Effect

September 20, 2009 11:56 PM

Rockies win, expand wild card lead

The Rockies have gotten a lot of help from the Los Angeles Dodgers this weekend.  As the Rockies stormed back late to take the rubber match from Dan Haren and the Diamondbacks, the Dodgers were busy shutting down the Giants in the rubber match of their series.

It means that the Rockies now have a 4.5-game lead in the wild card race, and with just two weeks left in the regular season, it's not quite insurmountable, but it's going to take a tank job by the Rockies or an incredible hot streak by the Giants for the Rockies to miss the playoffs.

Consider that, if the Rockies go 8-4 the rest of the way, the Giants would have to win all of their remaining games just to force a playoff.  If the Rockies play .500 ball over the last two weeks, the Giants would need to go 11-2.  Okay, so it's probably not smart for me to say all this, considering that the 2007 Padres did go .500 over the last two weeks, but the Rockies caught them that year by going 11-1.  Of course, there's a reason why the end of September 2007 was so special: That kind of thing just doesn't happen very often.

And even if the Rockies don't do that well, the Giants still have to win: if the Rockies go 4-8, the Giants would still need to go 9-4 to catch them.   In other words, the Giants have almost no margin for error, while the Rockies have a ton.

The best part of this for the Rockies is that they're headed back to Coors Field for a nine-game homestand starting Tuesday.  The team's gone 45-27 at Coors this year.

So it's not over yet.  But it's getting close.

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