The Coors Effecttag:www.realclearsports.com,2010-01-14:/blognetwork/the_coors_effect/712011-04-11T18:40:59ZMovable Type Pro 5.01Rockies Report: April 11tag:www.realclearsports.com,2011:/blognetwork/the_coors_effect//71.225872011-04-11T18:25:59Z2011-04-11T18:40:59ZTom Stephenson Unlike the usual April slow start, the Rockies are winning right out of the gate. The old adage says, pennants can't be won in April, but they can be lost. Last year, after starting the season 11-12, the Rockies spent most of the season playing catchup. And that was a big reason why the Rockies finished the season in third place in the West.
Another reason? The Rockies didn't take care of the bad teams on the schedule. Yes, you can argue that the Rockies are 6-2 largely because they've played two games against the Diamondbacks and four against the Pirates. But a big part of being a contender is winning the games you're supposed to win. See, last season, while the Diamondbacks were going 65-97, they went 9-9 against the Rockies. And the Rockies went 3-4 against a Pirates team that won 57 games. So it's good to see the Rockies winning the games they should. And winning games on the road! Those four games against the Pirates were in Pittsburgh.
Well, for the weekend series, the Rockies only hit .238 as a team. No, the big reason why the Rockies have started so well is the pitching. The pitchers are doing what they're supposed to do away from Coors Field; while the Rockies were hitting .238 in the Pirates series, the Pirates were hitting -- get this -- .191. So far in this young season, Rockies pitchers have a 2.86 ERA, second best in the NL (behind San Diego.) And that's with virtually no contribution from Ubaldo Jimenez, who gave up six runs in his only start. Think about how good this pitching staff will be when Ubaldo is back to health.
Okay. While there's not a lot to report about with the pitching staff -- basically everybody's pitching well, even if Huston Street makes you want to reach for the antacid every time he gets the ball -- there's, uh, the offense? With the team currently hitting .249, there's certainly room for improvement (though, I kind of doubt the pitching staff is going to keep up a 2.86 ERA all season.) Troy Tulowitzki isn't going to bat .214 all season, and Carlos Gonzalez is eventually going to hit a homer. Those two things we know.
But there's also Ian Stewart, currently 0-for-12 on the season. And not playing a whole lot. Some of it all has to do with injuries, but Jose Lopez presents an acceptable option to play the hot corner.
And then there's Jonathan Herrera. Really... seven walks in 18 plate appearances? I mean, last season Herrera had eighteen extra-base hits in 517 plate appearances -- and that's counting what he did in Colorado Springs! I like that Herrera can work a walk, but really, what are pitchers thinking working him out of the strike zone so much? He's probably not going to get himself out (he has no strikeouts this season, by the way.) On the other hand, he may have just earned himself the second-base job.
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Rockies Minor League Previewtag:www.realclearsports.com,2011:/blognetwork/the_coors_effect//71.225722011-04-07T22:03:41Z2011-04-07T22:21:45ZTom Stephenson Colorado Springs Sky Sox
Top Prospects: Rex Brothers, Jordan Pacheco, Charlie Blackmon Others to Watch: Bruce Billings, Chris Nelson, Eric Young Jr., Cole Garner
Like most AAA teams, the Sky Sox mostly function as extra depth for the big-league club. Pitchers like John Maine, Clayton Mortensen, Matt Daley and (eventually) Greg Reynolds, and hitters like Alfredo Amezaga, Mike Jacobs, and Willy Taveras aren't prospects any more, but still provide important depth in case anybody on the big league roster goes down.
That said, there are some good prospects on this team. Rex Brothers figures to be in the Rockies' bullpen at some point this season -- you can make a compelling argument that he's a better lefty reliever than Franklin Morales or Matt Reynolds right now. Charlie Blackmon is a five-tool outfielder who could see his shot if Dexter Fowler doesn't turn a corner this season.
Tulsa Drillers
Top Prospects: Christian Friedrich, Juan Nicasio, Wilin Rosario, Hector Gomez Others to Watch: Isaiah Froneberger, Cory Riordan, Rob Scahill, Casey Weathers, Thomas Field, Darin Holcomb, Ben Paulsen, Tim Wheeler
See that list? Yeah, this year's Tulsa club figures to be pretty good. There are all sorts of prospects, including possibly the best prospect in the system in Rosario. Friedrich struggled last year and is back at Tulsa again, but he can make his case with a strong performance. Juan Nicasio is a bit old for this level but has top-shelf stuff. Froneberger is an interesting lefty relief prospect. Weathers and Holcomb were both well-regarded as prospects before but have been forgotten about due to injuries. Field and Paulsen are both looking to build on strong years in 2010, while Wheeler and Gomez are former top prospects risk being forgotten about if they don't have good years. In any event, this club figures to contend for the Texas League championship.
Modesto Nuts
Top Prospects: Chad Bettis, Tyler Matzek, Nolan Arenado Others to Watch: Parker Frazier, Chad Rose, Josh Rutledge, Kent Matthes, Eliezer Mesa
The trio of top prospects -- Bettis, Matzek, and Arenado -- are reason enough to watch Modesto this season. Other than that, you have a fringe relief prospect in Rose, two players in Frazier and Matthes looking to put injury-plagued seasons behind them, and Mesa, who's out to prove that his solid 2010 wasn't a fluke. Rutledge has a big-league glove at short but needs to prove he can hit before entering the prospect conversation.
Asheville Tourists
Top Prospects: Albert Campos, Rafael Ortega, Kyle Parker Others to Watch: Edwar Cabrera, Josh Slaats, Cristhian Adames, Brett Tanos, Russell Wilson, Corey Dickerson
Asheville should have a strong offense in 2011. You can make a case that the Tourists will be suiting up a real prospect at every position except catcher and first base. The outfield, with Dickerson, Parker, and Ortega, should be very strong. Adames can really pick it at short, while Wilson and Tanos (at second and third, respectively) are more speculative. But the pitching staff is a bit suspect right now. Albert Campos is a solid prospect, while Slaats got his career off to a good start last season. Cabrera posts big strikeout numbers, but at 23 it's tough to call him a prospect as he's still down in A-ball. This should get a bit better once Peter Tago joins the team from extended spring training.
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Rogers shuts down Piratestag:www.realclearsports.com,2011:/blognetwork/the_coors_effect//71.225702011-04-07T21:11:08Z2011-04-07T21:20:47ZTom Stephenson And then, Rogers settled in. He got two groundouts to end the first inning. And after a walk to Garrett Jones in the second, Rogers set down the next batter. And the next batter. And sixteen more after that. Rogers left the game in the eighth inning after giving up a pair of weakly-hit singles, but all told, he threw 7.1 innings, struck out seven, walked one, and gave up four hits. What a great outing.
Meanwhile, the Rockies' offense was giving him plenty of cushion. There was no huge inning, but a solo homer by Troy Tulowitzki extended the lead to 3-1 in the fourth inning. The Rockies added two more in the sixth and another two in the seventh to get a 7-1 win. There were no huge offensive performances -- the best was Tulo, who went 2-for-3 with a homer and a double -- but eight of the nine starters got a hit. This is the kind of performance we like. It's kind of a slap in the face to the Rockies that a lot of national sportswriters write off the Rockies' lineup as two megastars (Tulo and CarGo) and a bunch of scrubs, which simply isn't the case.
So, hooray to the Rockies, who won their fourth straight game and now hold a one-game lead on the Padres for first place in the West.
Stars of the Game
1. Esmil Rogers: If Rogers continues to pitch like this, the Rockies are going to have a tough decision to make when Aaron Cook returns from the DL.
2. Troy Tulowitzki: It's easy to forget now that Tulo opened the season 0-for-9. He now has three homers in five games.
3. Carlos Gonzalez: 1-for-4 with two runs and two RBI. Solid day at the plate and in the field for CarGo. ]]>
Rockies notes: April 7tag:www.realclearsports.com,2011:/blognetwork/the_coors_effect//71.225662011-04-07T07:14:27Z2011-04-07T07:47:30Z-Well, it turns out that there was a reason Ubaldo Jimenez wasn't himself in his first start: he was dealing with a cut cuticle that will now require him to go on the disabled list.Up to take his place in...Tom Stephenson Up to take his place in the rotation is Greg Reynolds, former #2 overall draft pick. We can't imagine that Ubaldo will be out much more than the minimum -- he was placed on the DL retroactive to April 2, so he'll be eligible to return on the 17th. So he'll miss two turns through the rotation, and the Rockies don't have an off day between now and the 17th.
It will be interesting to see how Tracy manages the rotation. Esmil Rogers is set to start the opener in Pittsburgh. He could throw Reynolds on Friday, but Jorge de la Rosa will be able to pitch then as well. Either way, though, Reynolds will have to make two starts on the eight-game road trip.
But here's the important point. From the 18th-20th, the Giants are in town, and the way their rotation sets up, the Rockies figure to see Lincecum and Cain in the first two games in that series. Tracy could activate Ubaldo to pitch on the 17th, but then that would leave him with Rogers going against Lincecum in the first game against the Giants. Better to hold Ubaldo back a day and trust him to go against Lincecum.
-It was interesting to see Chris Iannetta get the start today in a day game following a night game. Backup catcher Jose Morales has yet to see the field in four games this season.
Iannetta has responded to being the full-time catcher with five hits in his first twelve at bats, but his old bugaboo -- strikeouts -- is still around. He's struck out four times -- that's a third of his at bats. Obviously his BA is going to come down, but it will be interesting to see how Tracy reacts when Iannetta goes through the (almost) inevitable slump. Morales isn't a viable option to play regularly if Tracy sees the need to bench Iannetta. Having Yorvit Torrealba or Miguel Olivo was a luxury for the Rockies in the past few years -- either of them could hit enough that they could start for extended stretches. Morales has spent the last two years alternating between AAA catcher and Joe Mauer's caddy in Minnesota; would Tracy trust him to get three at bats a game if Iannetta isn't hitting?
Or would the Rockies give Jordan Pacheco a shot? Pacheco is still working on his catching, but the man can clearly hit. He worked his way into the conversation with a good spring. Will he get a shot if Iannetta goes down or slumps?
-While Troy Tulowitzki has gotten off the mat with homers in back-to-back games, there's still Ian Stewart, 0-for-the season with five strikeouts in nine at bats. Part of it may be a hamstring injury that he's still recovering from, but the Rockies still have viable options in Ty Wigginton and Jose Lopez. At the very least, one of those two figures to start against lefthanders until Stewart starts hitting.
Lopez has opened the season on fire, going 5-for-15 with a homer and starting all four games. But that means Jonathan Herrera, defensive specialist, has played exactly two innings.
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Ubaldo not himself as Rockies lose openertag:www.realclearsports.com,2011:/blognetwork/the_coors_effect//71.225332011-04-02T00:48:35Z2011-04-02T00:54:56ZTom Stephenson It certainly wasn't the Ubaldo from last season. And it wasn't the Ubaldo from seasons before -- the guy who threw a high-90s fastball but couldn't locate it all that well. What it was was a Ubaldo whose fastball was topping out around 95 or 96 mph, and who seemed to be leaving just about everything up in the strike zone.
If you're confused about his final line -- one strikeout in six innings, and six extra-base hits (including two homers after giving up ten all of last season) -- well, that description about sums it up. Ubaldo frankly wasn't himself. And the Rockies lost because of it. The Rockies' offensive performance would have been more than enough to win on a day when Ubaldo had a "normal" outing. The Rockies scored six runs, getting to Ian Kennedy for two runs in the first inning, adding another in the second, and a fourth on a Jose Lopez homer (in his first game as a Rockie) in the sixth inning.
But, it wasn't to be on a day when even the outs that Ubaldo was getting seemed to be getting hit hard. Obviously, it's only one game into the season, and we shouldn't jump to any conclusions -- but if the Rockies are going to contend in 2011, Ubaldo is going to need to be a whole lot better than this.
So the Rockies' 2011 season, with high hopes for the club's first division championship and third playoff appearance in five years, begins with an extra-inning loss.
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Opening Day is here.tag:www.realclearsports.com,2011:/blognetwork/the_coors_effect//71.225222011-03-31T05:47:20Z2011-03-31T06:00:48ZTom Stephenson So on to the latest news...
-Mike McKenry was traded to the Red Sox. This was pretty much a done deal when he lost out on the backup catcher job, which will either go to Jose Morales or Matt Pagnozzi (the Rockies still haven't made the call on that one.) 2011 was really McKenry's one chance to break in with the big-league club. With Wilin Rosario likely to be ready by spring 2012, at the latest, McKenry became an expendable part when it became clear that he wasn't going to make the club this year.
As for the two guys actually competing for the job? Let's just say that Jim Tracy shouldn't be tempted to start benching Chris Iannetta this year. Unlike the last two years, when the team has had a viable option to play whenever Iannetta goes through a slump, Morales and Pagnozzi (especially Pagnozzi) aren't players who I would want in the lineup on an everyday basis.
-The other remaining roster decision is whether Ian Stewart will open the season on the DL. Stewart's been bothered all spring, first by his knee, now by his hamstring. Obviously that would have a big impact on the Opening Day lineup; if Stewart's not ready to go, Jose Lopez will fill in at third base while Jonathan Herrera becomes the de facto starter at second. And Willy Taveras will be on the roster.
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Are the Rockies overvaluing spring performance?tag:www.realclearsports.com,2011:/blognetwork/the_coors_effect//71.224832011-03-23T01:39:49Z2011-03-23T01:55:33ZTom Stephenson Look, Herrera is having a really good spring. .364/.440/.568 is a great spring no matter how you look at it. Herrera hasn't shown any home run pop (there's nothing new), but with three doubles and three triples in 44 at bats, it's hard to say that he's not hitting the ball well. And he's a good fielder to boot.
The problem is... this doesn't jibe at all with Herrera's previous performance. What we know about Herrera is that he's a smallish (5'9", 150), all-field, no-hit middle infielder. He doesn't strike out very much and draws a decent number of walks, but he doesn't have a lot of pop in his bat. Strike that -- he really doesn't have ANY pop in his bat. Here are Herrera's slugging percentages and ISO power numbers from AAA the last three seasons.
2008: .381 SLG, .071 ISO 2009: .339 SLG, .071 ISO 2010: .324 SLG, .063 ISO (.342 SLG and .058 ISO in the majors)
And keep in mind -- those numbers are propped up by Colorado Springs. Seriously. Imagine what he'd do at sea level. (Wait, you don't have to -- on the road for the Rockies last season his SLG was .287. Yeah, really.)
Now, Herrera's hot spring isn't the only thing that's propelling him toward the starting job. His main competition is Jose Lopez, who's having a bad spring on the heels of a bad 2010. Lopez's .609 OPS last season obviously was pressed downward by playing half his games in Safeco Field, the anti-Coors, but still... that's bad. So Lopez's spring might just be a carryover from his poor 2010, and might mean that, well, this is the hitter he is now.
Still, though, you have to wonder if the Rockies are placing a little bit too much value on Herrera's spring performance -- and also too much value on the poor performances of Lopez and Chris Nelson (who's likely headed to Colorado Springs to start the year.) Eric Young Jr. has been limited by injuries. What I see happening is, basically, Herrera gets the starting job out of spring training and starts hitting like his usual self, while Nelson starts hitting at AAA and claims the starting job sometime in May.
And the Rockies will have potentially lost a couple more games than they should have by having Herrera's bat in the lineup.
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Rockies pursuing Michael Young?tag:www.realclearsports.com,2011:/blognetwork/the_coors_effect//71.222562011-02-06T20:28:12Z2011-02-06T20:33:19ZTom Stephenson Only, we thought it would be Eric Young, not Michael Young. The Rockies are in talks with the Rangers to acquire Young, who evidently wants out of Texas after the acquisition of Adrian Beltre pushes him off third base and likely to DH. (And, the acquisition of Mike Napoli means that Young would be splitting time at designated hitter.)
Young is hardly great defensively; he's been a below average fielder at third the last two seasons. But even at 34, he can still hit a bit; prior to 2010, he had hit over .300 in six of the past seven seasons. Even in 2010, when he "only" hit .284, he was still good for 21 homers and a .444 SLG.
While Young would almost certainly supplant Eric Young Jr. and Jose Lopez at second base, it's not clear where he'd fit into the Rockies' lineup. His strong batting average and OBP would make him a good candidate to hit at the top of the order, but he has enough power to hit in the middle of the order as well. ]]>
MLB 2011 Preview Series: Boston Red Soxtag:www.realclearsports.com,2011:/blognetwork/the_coors_effect//71.222012011-01-27T22:47:34Z2011-01-27T23:31:02ZTom Stephenson
While the Coors Effect is, has always been, and will continue to be a
Rockies-themed blog, we know the Rockies don't play in a vacuum. There
are 29 other teams in the majors, and it's our duty to keep readers who
only follow the Rockies informed of what's going on with everybody else
before the season starts.
The Red Sox in 2010 went 89-73. Pretty good, huh?
Well, that wasn't good enough for Red Sox Nation. The Sox finished in third place in the AL East, behind both the Yankees and Rays, so naturally ownership went on a spending spree this offseason. Added to the mix are Adrian Gonzalez, acquired in an offseason trade with the Padres, and Carl Crawford, signed for $142 million over 7 years.
The only issue? Well, the Red Sox strengthened their offense -- but that wasn't the team's problem in 2010. The Sox finished second in the American League in runs scored. No, the issue with the Red Sox had a lot more to do with a pitching staff that finished ninth in the AL in ERA. The Sox added a couple of arms to the bullpen, but they'll be trotting out the same starting pitchers they did in 2010.
Key Losses 3B Adrian Beltre C Victor Martinez UT Bill Hall 1B Mike Lowell*
Beltre had a .919 OPS and Martinez had a .844 OPS, so these are big losses, though the Sox more than likely can replace their offensive production.
Key Acquisitions LF Carl Crawford 1B Adrian Gonzalez RHP Dan Wheeler RHP Bobby Jenks
Crawford and Gonzalez are the big-name acquisitions, and they'll help replace the production lost with the departures of Beltre and Martinez. Wheeler and Jenks shore up a relief corps that had a 4.24 ERA in 2010, though Jenks wasn't terrific last season.
Projected Lineup C Jarrod Saltalamacchia/Jason Varitek 1B Adrian Gonzalez 2B Dustin Pedroia SS Marco Scutaro 3B Kevin Youkilis LF Carl Crawford CF Jacoby Ellsbury/Mike Cameron RF J.D. Drew DH David Ortiz
The thing about the Sox offense is that even with the losses, it would have gotten better just by Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia having full, healthy seasons (Youkilis played in 102 games and Pedroia 75.) Ellsbury also missed all but 18 games. Youkilis moves back to third base in 2011 to accommodate Gonzalez, while it's not entirely clear whether the Red Sox will go with the declining veterans (Varitek and Cameron) or younger players who have been less than impressive in the majors (Saltalamacchia, Ellsbury.) In any case, the Sox offense won't struggle to score runs in 2011.
Projected Rotation Jon Lester Josh Beckett Clay Buchholz John Lackey Daisuke Matsuzaka
There are two really good pitchers here (Lester and Buchholz.) 2011 is an odd-numbered year, so Beckett should be good since he seems to alternate good and bad seasons. Lackey got paid an enormous amount of money for a 4.40 ERA, and his strikeouts declined while his walks went up in 2010 -- neither is a good sign. Matsuzaka has seemed almost lost the last two years. There's a decent chance that the rotation could be better just by virtue of Beckett pitching to form, but we're not sure if the Sox should expect much improvement from Lackey and Matsuzaka -- both of whom are being paid too much money to think about removing from the rotation.
Outlook
The strength of the offense means that 85 wins is almost a given, and 90-95 wins is very attainable. With the Rays being gutted in the offseason and the Orioles and Blue Jays still not that big of a threat, the Sox should finish no worse than second in the division and should be a playoff team. How far this team can go depends a lot on the pitching. ]]>
MLB 2011 Preview Series: New York Yankeestag:www.realclearsports.com,2011:/blognetwork/the_coors_effect//71.221842011-01-25T06:51:01Z2011-01-25T07:11:26ZTom Stephenson
While the Coors Effect is, has always been, and will continue to be a
Rockies-themed blog, we know the Rockies don't play in a vacuum. There
are 29 other teams in the majors, and it's our duty to keep readers who
only follow the Rockies informed of what's going on with everybody else
before the season starts.
Huh?
We've grown so accustomed to the overlords of the American League throwing around dollars every offseason that, well, this offseason just seemed really strange. The Yankees actually lost out on signing a big-name free agent. Yeah, Cliff Lee decided that he'd rather pitch in Philadelphia. Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are back -- as if they'd ever actually play for anyone else -- but aside from them, the big free-agent signing was... Rafael Soriano.
Well, we didn't really expect any big signings of a hitter -- the offense is basically set. But the pitching? This somehow doesn't look like the starting rotation of the New York Yankees.
Key Losses 1B Lance Berkman RHP Kerry Wood LHP Andy Pettitte* LF Marcus Thames RHP Javier Vazquez
The offense obviously is going to be fine without Berkman and Thames, and Soriano should step into Wood's role in the bullpen nicely. But that rotation? Yeah, getting Andy Pettitte to come back (despite the fact that he's pushing 40) would really help, because the Yanks' rotation is thin right now.
Key Acquisitions C Russell Martin LHP Pedro Feliciano RHP Rafael Soriano
Martin isn't completely cooked, but he's not the player he once was. Soriano will really help with the bridge to Rivera, but there's something missing here.
Projected Lineup C Russell Martin/Francisco Cervelli 1B Mark Teixeira 2B Robinson Cano SS Derek Jeter 3B Alex Rodriguez LF Brett Gardner CF Curtis Granderson RF Nick Swisher DH Jorge Posada
Flip a coin between Martin and Cervelli; Posada's almost strictly a DH at this point so he's not going to see much time behind the dish. But yeah, the lineup is otherwise set in stone. The Yankees aren't going to struggle to score runs in 2011.
Projected Rotation CC Sabathia Phil Hughes A.J. Burnett (Pettitte?) Ivan Nova/Sergio Mitre/who the hell really knows
This could be a problem, though. A pretty big one. The front of the rotation is very good with Sabathia and Hughes, though we'll see if Hughes responds to the pressure of being the Yanks' number two starter (he was the fourth starter last year.) Burnett is basically guaranteed a spot in the rotation despite a horrific 2010 because of his salary, though if any team can afford to eat Burnett's salary this is the one. Well, Burnett's salary, and the fact that the Yankees really don't have any better options. Obviously the Yankees could have used Cliff Lee. There's still a pretty good chance that Andy Pettitte comes back, because, to be frank, the Yankees aren't going into the season with Nova and Mitre in the rotation. At least one of them (if not both) is basically guaranteed to be bumped. But if Pettitte doesn't come back, the Yanks may not really have a choice. Mark Prior will be in spring training (remember him?) Andrew Brackman is an interesting prospect but probably not ready, and I haven't heard any rumors that the Yankees are considering moving Joba to the rotation. Everything after Hughes is very, very shaky. It's un-Yankees like. And, really, it limits how far the Yankees can go. Something must be done about this.
Outlook
What we know: the Yankees will not struggle to score runs. The lineup is simply too good. But the rotation looks so shaky that it's hard to see this team approaching 100 wins. 90 wins is doable, but with Boston on the upswing that may not be enough to win the East. It should be good enough to get in the playoffs, though. The Yankees are a playoff team most likely, but if they don't make a trade during the season, will they be good enough to advance to the World Series? Which, as we all know, is the ultimate goal of the Yankees every year. ]]>
Rockies news: Jason Hammel signs, Clayton Mortensen intag:www.realclearsports.com,2011:/blognetwork/the_coors_effect//71.221832011-01-25T06:10:02Z2011-01-25T06:20:54ZTom Stephenson Speaking of young pitchers getting injured, the Rockies just added a little more insurance in case that happens, trading for the A's Clayton Mortensen. Mortensen, who made just one start in the majors last season but had a pretty solid year for AAA Sacramento, should provide depth at AAA. At 25, he still has some room to grow but his ceiling is probably that of a fourth starter. Ironically, Mortensen was originally with the Cardinals and came over to the A's in the Matt Holliday trade.
Where does Mortensen fit in the Rockies' rotation picture? I don't see Mortensen having much of a shot at making the Rockies' rotation. With the first four pitchers set in stone (Jimenez, Hammel, Chacin, de la Rosa), assuming no injuries it will either be Esmil Rogers or Aaron Cook in the fifth spot. Mortensen could be better than Cook, but I don't think he's as good as Rogers. I think Mortensen is behind Cook as well for the simple reason that the Rockies don't seem like they want to pay Cook $9.25 million not to pitch. Arguably, Mortensen is behind Felipe Paulino as well; Paulino should be in the bullpen, but he'll more than likely be the "late scratch" starter who gets the call for a start when a starter goes down with no time to call somebody up from the Springs.
So, yeah, I could be wrong but I think Mortensen will be something like seventh or eighth in the rotation pecking order. The Rockies sent Ethan Hollingsworth (who I just ranked 29th in the Rockies' top 50 prospects), which says a lot about the value of both Mortensen and Hollingsworth. Hollingsworth just got traded, straight up, for a guy who's likely to be an insurance option pitching in the Springs, and Mortensen got traded, straight up, for an A-ball pitcher who's a middling prospect. ]]>
Rockies Top 50 Prospects, Part 3tag:www.realclearsports.com,2011:/blognetwork/the_coors_effect//71.221782011-01-24T23:25:04Z2011-01-25T00:19:52ZTom Stephenson
21. Casey Weathers, RHP Age: 25 Acquired: 1st round draft pick in 2007 out of Vanderbilt 2010 stats (High-A Modesto): 20 G, 0-1, 6.75 ERA, 18.2 IP, 25 K, 17 BB
Weathers is nearing his end as a real prospect. The former first-round pick looked to be well on his way to being in the Rockies' bullpen -- potentially closing -- after blowing through the Texas League in 2008, but his ascent to the majors was derailed by Tommy John surgery. Now he's making his way back, and the numbers make clear that he's got quite a ways to go. Command was never his strong point (he walked 28 batters in 44.1 innings in Tulsa in 2008), but last year it went from mediocre to terrible. The high strikeout rate is the only thing that's still providing some hope, but it comes with the caveat that he was blowing away A-ball hitters as a 25-year-old. The good news for Weathers is that as a former first-round pick, the Rockies aren't going to give up on him as long as there's a shot that he can make it. But basically, he needs to come out and dominate at Tulsa (again) in 2011.
22. Rob Scahill, RHP Age: 24 Acquired: 8th round draft pick in 2009 out of Bradley 2010 stats (High-A Modesto): 27 G, 10-7, 4.73 ERA, 156 IP, 140 K, 59 BB
Scahill came on strong in the second half of 2010. But it comes with a caveat: he'll be 24 next month, and this season will be his first above A-ball. I generally hold some degree of skepticism for college-trained pitchers who do well at A-ball. Scahill could turn out to be a reliable starting pitcher, but basically, a pitcher with his pedigree should dominate A-ball hitters. If he's not, then it's probably not going to work. And these numbers don't really scream "dominating."
Riordan passed the AA test pretty well. In fact, his component ratios were actually better in 2010, even moving up a level from where they were in 2009. That said, Riordan looks more like a competent back-of-the-rotation starter than an ace, which limits his value a bit. And the stats above don't include his homer rate (20 homers given up); he's basically a flyball pitcher, which likely isn't going to work well in Colorado. That, however, limits his value to the Rockies a lot more than it would to another team; Riordan is a guy who I suspect may wind up being traded down the line because of this.
24. Cole Garner, OF Age: 26 Acquired: 26th round pick in 2003 out of La Quinta (CA) HS 2010 stats (AAA Colorado Springs): 111 G, 415 AB, .304/.374/.520, 31 2B, 10 3B, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 39 BB, 89 K
Ian Stewart's former high school teammate is almost ready. Garner likely won't be a big star, but at this point it looks like he should at the very least be a competent backup outfielder. He has some pop in his bat and some speed, but just as importantly, he's gotten his strikeout and walk rates to acceptable levels (in 2007 he struck out 115 times and walked just 20 in 319 at bats.) This is an example of a raw player with good tools who's actually built his skills to the point where he can be a useful player. The problem is that with Carlos Gonzalez and Seth Smith manning the corner outfield spots, there's nowhere for him to start; but as a righty, he could fill in for one of them against left-handed pitchers.
25. Bruce Billings, RHP Age: 25 Acquired: 30th round draft pick in 2007 out of San Diego State 2010 stats (AA Tulsa): 34 G, 11-6, 3.28 ERA, 109.2 IP, 101 K, 44 BB
Billings is an example of a pitcher whose stats are better than his stuff. His stuff isn't particularly great, but it's clear that he knows how to pitch -- opposing hitters in the Texas League hit just .217 against him. He worked as a swingman for Tulsa, starting 14 games and appearing as a reliever in 20 more, and the Rockies appear set to move him to the 'pen full-time after he pitched exclusively as a reliever in the Arizona Fall League. Billings could see major league action in 2011, but the Rockies' bullpen is fairly crowded, so more likely he'll start the season in AAA.
26. Eliezer Mesa, OF Age: 22 Acquired: Signed as free agent out of the Dominican Republic 2010 stats (Low-A Asheville): 117 G, 483 AB, .302/.357/.420, 33 2B, 9 3B, 2 HR, 42 RBI, 39 BB, 91 K
Mesa is getting notice as a prospect after a strong 2010 campaign. But, like with many prospects in this range, there are a few caveats. First, at 21 he was a bit older than I'd like my Sally League prospects to be. Second, he took advantage of a friendly home park: away from McCormick Field he was just a .248/.291/.326 hitter. He tore up the league in April and May before cooling off considerably the rest of the way. And, he doesn't hit for a ton of power, and at 5'11" and 180, doesn't figure to develop a lot more. Unlike somebody like Nolan Arenado, who's hitting a ton of doubles that figure to turn into homers, Mesa just doesn't figure to turn into much of a power hitter -- of his 44 extra-base hits, 33 were at McCormick. Mesa is on the radar screen, but I frankly don't expect a whole lot of him going forward. He could surprise, though.
27. Will Swanner, C Age: 19 Acquired: 15th round draft pick in 2010 out of La Costa Canyon HS (Carlsbad, CA) 2010 stats (Rookie Casper): 18 G, 76 AB, .303/.321/.632, 4 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 13 RBI, 0 BB, 33 K
On talent, Swanner should have been a third- or fourth-round pick. But most teams figured he was going to go to Pepperdine, so he dropped to the 15th round, where the Rockies took a flyer on him and wound up signing him late in the game. He managed to get into 18 games in Casper, where he put up the line you see above. The potential is obvious, but until he starts striking out less than 40 percent of the time, it's hard to get behind Swanner. Defensively, all I really know is that he was regarded as a defense-first catcher coming out of high school. With Swanner, there's clear potential, but he needs a lot more refinement before he can contribute in the majors, and he's a long way off.
28. Erik Stavert, RHP Age: 23 Acquired: 7th round draft pick in 2009 out of Oregon 2010 stats (SS Tri-City): 13 G, 3-4, 2.90 ERA, 68.1 IP, 61 K, 26 BB
Stavert is another in the line of college-trained pitchers who are doing well at lower levels. Again, pitchers like this often struggle when they move up the ladder; their advanced approach helps them in the low levels but their stuff isn't good enough to get more advanced hitters out. The best thing that Stavert has going for him is a very strong groundball rate; his GO/AO rate in Tri-City was a solid 2.37. But he's another guy for whom we'll need more information before we can really figure out how good he is.
29. Ethan Hollingsworth, RHP Age: 23 Acquired: 4th round draft pick in 2008 out of Western Michigan 2010 stats (High-A Modesto): 25 G, 12-8, 3.31 ERA, 160.1 IP, 153 K, 34 BB
And another. Hollingsworth actually made a couple of starts at Tulsa last season, and the results weren't pretty: although his K rate held up reasonably well (9 K in 10.1 IP), he also gave up 15 hits. This is typically the problem with pitchers like this: when they start facing advanced hitters, their stuff is just too hittable. That said, it was only two starts, and Hollingsworth will get another chance to prove himself at that level in 2011.
30. Jared Clark, 1B Age: 24 Acquired: 12th round draft pick in 2009 out of Cal State Fullerton 2010 stats (Low-A Asheville): 110 G, 381 AB, .299/.412/.541, 20 2B, 0 3B, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 76 BB, 113 K
Clark has an advanced approach and mashed 24 homers in the Sally League; it's also not a McCormick Field mirage, as 11 of his homers came on the road. But there are some problems. One is the fact that he's 24; no, I don't automatically ignore a hitter that age who dominates at this level, but it does mean that there are reasons to be skeptical. And I can't really get behind 113 strikeouts in less than 400 at bats. Clark instinctively seems like the kind of hitter who will be eaten alive by more advanced pitchers, but I could be wrong about this. See Kiel Roling last season for a rather similar player who killed the Sally League but struggled mightily in the Texas League. ]]>
MLB 2011 Preview Series: Kansas City Royalstag:www.realclearsports.com,2011:/blognetwork/the_coors_effect//71.221772011-01-24T22:49:49Z2011-01-24T23:17:37ZTom Stephenson
While the Coors Effect is, has always been, and will continue to be a
Rockies-themed blog, we know the Rockies don't play in a vacuum. There
are 29 other teams in the majors, and it's our duty to keep readers who
only follow the Rockies informed of what's going on with everybody else
before the season starts.
So, to continue with the second part of the preview series, we jump from possibly one of the best teams in the American League to one of the worst. To be sure, there's some hope on the horizon for the Royals: their farm system is likely one of the best in the game.
But for 2011? Not a chance. By trading Zack Greinke, who won the 2009 Cy Young Award and was under the team's control through 2012, the Royals signaled that they have no interest in competing in 2011. Which isn't a bad call, really; even with Greinke the team wasn't any good. Instead, the Royals are focused on stockpiling talent for the next few years. Expect the Royals to be a contender in two or three years -- but not this year.
Key Losses RF David DeJesus SS Yuniesky Betancourt RHP Zack Greinke RHP Brian Bannister* RHP Gil Meche
Meche wasn't all that likely to pitch in 2011 anyway, so him retiring instead of taking $12 million doesn't really change much. Greinke is obviously a huge loss, but DeJesus was an underrated player who will also be missed.
Key Acquisitions RHP Vin Mazzaro SS Alcides Escobar CF Lorenzo Cain RF Jeff Francoeur LF Melky Cabrera LHP Jeff Francis
A lot of the acquisitions might end up being better than any of these guys (particularly Jake Odorizzi), but won't be playing in the majors in 2011. With Greinke gone, there's a good chance that Francis is the Royals' best starting pitcher entering the spring, which says a lot about the Royals; Francis would have been battling for the Rockies' fifth rotation spot.
Projected Lineup C Jason Kendall 1B Kila Ka'aihue 2B Chris Getz SS Alcides Escobar 3B Mike Aviles LF Alex Gordon CF Melky Cabrera RF Jeff Francoeur DH Billy Butler
Again, this is pretty sad -- there's maybe one guy in the Royals' starting lineup (Butler) who would start for most teams, though Ka'aihue (who hit .319 with 24 homers in AAA last season) could be a surprise. Escobar has a great glove and a light bat. Aviles is a solid hitter who bounced around the infield last season; expect top prospect Mike Moustakas to take over at third at some point this season. Lorenzo Cain could work his way into the starting lineup; Cabrera and Francoeur frankly aren't all that good. And there's Jason Kendall, who hasn't had an OPS+ above 80 since 2006 and serves as proof that once you're a major league catcher, you're a major league catcher until the end of time.
Projected Rotation Jeff Francis Luke Hochevar Bruce Chen Kyle Davies Vin Mazzaro
Really, your guess is as good as mine as to how this will all shake out. Sean O'Sullivan should be in the mix as well. Still, take one look at this (yes, dead serious, Bruce Chen might be the Royals' third starter) and tell me how the Royals are going to contend. The Royals do have one of the best closers in baseball in Joakim Soria, who's about the one bright spot on this team, but the rest of the bullpen is pretty blah. Soria has three consecutive club option years after 2011, but the Royals might decide to trade him anyway.
Outlook
Surprise, surprise: The Royals may well be the worst team in baseball in 2011. Like, lucky if they don't lose 100 games kind of bad. The farm system should provide help eventually, but among the hitting prospects, Moustakas is the only one likely to make an impact in the majors in 2011; Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers are probably a year away at best. Some of the pitching prospects are close to being ready to contribute, but the danger with the Royals is that the MLB team is likely to be so bad that there's going to be pressure to push the prospects into action before they're ready.
Until all that prospect help is ready, though, expect the Royals to be all kinds of bad. ]]>
MLB 2011 Preview Series: Texas Rangerstag:www.realclearsports.com,2011:/blognetwork/the_coors_effect//71.221682011-01-22T22:45:17Z2011-01-22T23:08:33ZTom Stephenson
While the Coors Effect is, has always been, and will continue to be a Rockies-themed blog, we know the Rockies don't play in a vacuum. There are 29 other teams in the majors, and it's our duty to keep readers who only follow the Rockies informed of what's going on with everybody else before the season starts.
Every year is good for a surprise playoff team or two, and in 2010, that was the Texas Rangers, who surprised just about everybody by running away with the AL West and then getting past the Yankees to win the American League pennant. It hasn't exactly been a quiet offseason for the Rangers, either, whose new ownership is showing a pretty clear commitment to contending in the coming years.
Key Losses P Cliff Lee 1B Jorge Cantu* DH Vladimir Guerrero* C Bengie Molina* *still unsigned; could resign with team
Key Acquisitions 3B Adrian Beltre C Yorvit Torrealba P Brandon Webb P Arthur Rhodes
The loss of Lee is obviously big; the trade-deadline acquisition of Lee was a big reason the Rangers made it to the World Series. The signing of Beltre was splashy, but it creates a question; namely, where will incumbent 3B Mike Young play? Webb is in for 1 year at $3 million, but it remains to be seen if he'll be effective; he hasn't pitched since Opening Day 2009.
Projected Lineup C Yorvit Torrealba 1B Mitch Moreland 2B Ian Kinsler SS Elvis Andrus 3B Adrian Beltre LF Josh Hamilton CF Julio Borbon RF Nelson Cruz DH Michael Young
Evidently, the Rangers are going to have Young as the DH, which doesn't make a ton of sense. Young's not a great fielder, but considering he's played both second base and short in the past before moving to third, why not stick him at first and have Moreland be the DH? Chris Davis is still an option at 1B as well, though he still hasn't figured out how to stop striking out so much. And since none of the Rangers' numerous former catching prospects (Taylor Teagarden, Max Ramirez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia) have panned out, the team is stuck signing Yorvit Torrealba. All in all, though, this is a solid lineup from top to bottom, with a dangerous core of hitters (Hamilton, Kinsler, Cruz, Beltre, Young) and no real holes in it. Especially with their home ballpark, the Rangers won't struggle to score runs.
Projected Rotation Colby Lewis C.J. Wilson Tommy Hunter Derek Holland Brandon Webb OR Scott Feldman
Yeah. THIS could be a problem, however. Lewis and Wilson are both coming off strong seasons, but both really came out of nowhere in 2010 and could regress a bit. Tommy Hunter went 13-4 and had a 3.73 ERA, but he also struck out 48 batters in 128 innings. Regression. Derek Holland improved in 2010 but still isn't a sure bet to break through in 2011. And then you have the fifth spot, which will be occupied by either Webb (see above on him) or, I guess, Feldman, who was terrible in 2010. Matt Harrison, who made six starts in 2010, could also be in the mix. I look at the Rangers' rotation as a big question mark; the team will score runs, but will they keep them off the board? The good news is that the Rangers' infield defense is solid and just got a huge upgrade with Beltre coming in at third base.
Outlook
The Rangers should contend in 2011, and are obviously the favorites in the AL West. Beyond that, though, it's not clear. A lot went right for the team in 2010, and while the offense is and will continue to be strong, the starting pitching is due for some regression. Minus Lee, the Rangers don't really have anything resembling a playoff rotation, particularly if Wilson and/or Hunter experiences some dropoff. The bullpen was excellent in 2010 and should be again. I see the Rangers as an 85-90 win team, which, given that the Mariners continue to be bad, and the Angels and A's are mediocre, should be enough to get them back to the playoffs. ]]>
Rockies Top 50 Prospects, Part 2tag:www.realclearsports.com,2011:/blognetwork/the_coors_effect//71.221622011-01-22T06:05:37Z2011-01-22T08:54:44ZTom Stephenson
11. Juan Nicasio, RHP Age: 24 Acquired: Signed as free agent in 2006 out of the Dominican Republic 2010 stats (High-A Modesto): 28 G, 12-10, 3.91 ERA, 177.1 IP, 171 K, 31 BB
Two straight years of utter dominance from Nicasio, a live-armed righthander. The main downside to Nicasio is that he's already 24 and still hasn't even hit AA. Despite the fact that Nicasio has good stuff, I'm still viewing him with a fair amount of skepticism due to his age; most pitchers his age are either in the high minors by now, or they're probably not worth a second look. Nicasio gets something of a pass because the word is that he has the stuff to match the numbers (meaning, he's not just fooling impatient young hitters with below-average stuff, which describes a lot of older pitchers who dominate A-ball.) Still, though, you have to wonder why the Rockies have held him back so much despite the fact that he's clearly too advanced for this level. AA this season should tell us quite a bit.
12. Rafael Ortega, OF Age: 19 Acquired: Signed as free agent in 2007 out of Venezuela 2010 stats (Rookie Casper): 71 G, 288 AB, .358/.416/.510, 17 2B, 3 3B, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 28 BB, 42 K
The tools are there. So is a bit of polish -- Ortega draws walks, doesn't strike out too much, and is already showing the ability to hit for some pop. He steals bases (23-for-32) and plays a good outfield. So why isn't he higher? Based on potential, he's one of the best hitting prospects in the Rockies organization. But, we've seen too many hitters in the past do well at Casper only to collapse once they face more advanced pitching. That's a bit less of a concern with Ortega because he's showing solid plate discipline. There's also some concern that he's not going to develop much more power, given his size (5'11", 180.) But, since he's already hitting for adequate power for a speedy centerfielder who plays good defense, this isn't a huge concern. Ortega could rise to the top of the list with a strong season at Asheville (most likely) in 2011.
13. Albert Campos, RHP Age: 20 Acquired: Signed as free agent in 2007 out of Venezuela 2010 stats (Rookie Casper): 15 G, 4-4, 2.05 ERA, 88 IP, 68 K, 17 BB
Projectability, thy name is Albert Campos. Campos (along with Alving Mejias) showed how little you can read into stats out of the Dominican Summer League; his 2009 stats there didn't suggest that he was much of a prospect. Of course, in the Dominican, projectability has much more of a predictive effect than stats. At 6'4" and 222 pounds, with a live arm, Campos gets on prospect lists because he could be really good. He's shown some polish, and even in the hitter-friendly Pioneer League, opposing hitters hit just .244 off him. Campos figures to be headed to Asheville to open 2011, and like Ortega, he could really rise with a strong campaign there.
14. Tim Wheeler, OF Age: 23 Acquired: 1st round draft pick in 2009 out of Sacramento State 2010 stats (High-A Modesto): 129 G, 510 AB, .249/.341/.384, 21 2B, 6 3B, 12 HR, 63 RBI, 60 BB, 114 K
Around here is where the prospects start to get more and more iffy. At least with guys like Campos and Ortega, you can point to "good tools" and "haven't gotten high enough in the minors where we can really get a sense of how good they are." Wheeler has the tools, minus the one that allows a guy to hit better than .250, it seems. There's power and speed (22 SB), but statistically nothing really jumps off the page at you; it's mostly just "pretty good" across the board. Seeing how now many observers think he'll have to move to left field, too, "pretty good" offense probably isn't going to cut it. But Wheeler still has the tools to have a breakout season in Tulsa, so it's tough to get too down on him. 2010 was a shaky year, but the Rockies certainly aren't going to give up on a first-round pick this soon, particularly when Wheeler is at least showing some MLB potential. It may not be star potential, but Wheeler can still work his way in as a fourth outfielder, and it's not yet time to give up on him as a potential everyday player.
15. Jordan Pacheco, C Age: 25 Acquired: 9th round draft pick in 2007 out of New Mexico 2010 stats (High-A Modesto): 104 G, 390 AB, .321/.407/.444, 27 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 70 RBI, 54 BB, 36 K 2010 stats (AA Tulsa): 21 G, 78 AB, .333/.396/.436, 5 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 19 RBI, 6 BB, 6 K
A .300-hitting catcher who's a doubles machine, draws a ton of walks and doesn't strike out? Sign me up! Well, there's one part of this that's not really true. You see, Pacheco's problem is that he's only a catcher in the sense that he's the kind of guy you'll see fill in at catcher when the dread Murphy's Law of Catcher Injuries kicks in and your catcher gets hurt after you used your backup catcher as a pinch hitter. That, and the fact that he was putting up those kind of numbers as a 24-year-old in the Cal League, an age when frankly you expect players to hit like that in the Cal League, is the reason why he's not terribly well-regarded. Still, though, Pacheco has hit at basically every stop in the minors, and his plate discipline suggests that he will continue to hit. He'll have value to the Rockies some day as a utility man/emergency catcher and pinch hitter, but I'm still not completely sold on his ability to be much more than that. The big question is whether the Rockies will be aggressive with him and stick him in AAA to start 2011 -- he hit well in the Arizona Fall League as well, so it could be that he's ready for that level, and I'm kind of wondering if he could flirt with .400 in Colorado Springs.
16. Samuel Deduno, RHP Age: 27 Acquired: Signed as a free agent in 2003 out of the Dominican Republic 2010 stats (AAA Colorado Springs): 6 G, 3-1, 2.93 ERA, 30.2 IP, 29 K, 18 BB 2010 stats (Rockies): 4 G, 0-0, 3.38 ERA, 2.2 IP, 3 K, 1 BB
The accepted party line is that you never really give up on pitchers who throw really hard, even when they're hitting their late 20s and still have little to no command of their pitches. That about describes Deduno, who, when he's not throwing pitches that he has no idea where they're going, has spent most of the last three years being injured. He missed all of 2008, then came back in 2009 and pitched fairly well, before spending a bunch of time on the shelf in 2010. The potential is obvious: Deduno's stuff is so good that he strikes out a bunch of batters and induces a lot of ground balls. Ubaldo Jimenez does that. Ubaldo Jimenez looked like this a few years ago, and once he got his command down to an acceptable level he became UBALDO JIMENEZ! Deduno still has not done that, and there's a chance that he never will. But you don't give up on pitchers like him based on the possibility that he actually could get some command, and then you have a really good pitcher. He could compete for a spot in the Rockies' bullpen in 2011, and he could be a valuable reliever for the team. I wouldn't hold my breath on that happening, but it's a possibility.
17. Corey Dickerson, OF Age: 21 Acquired: 8th round draft pick in 2010 out of Meridian (MS) CC 2010 stats (Rookie Casper): 69 G, 276 AB, .348/.412/.634, 22 2B, 9 3B, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 28 BB, 51 K
Uh... yeah. I don't care if it is the Pioneer League, or that he was 21 years old. You don't ignore the kind of numbers Dickerson put up at Casper last year. That said, the fact that he was 21, and that this was the Pioneer League, lead me to want to see more out of Corey before I anoint him as the Rockies' franchise savior who will man left field er... right field... err, whichever corner outfield spot CarGo isn't playing for the next decade. The stat line is nice, the tools are nice, but sometimes, a hitter who's had a couple of years of college under his belt gets into the thin air of the Pioneer League, faces a bunch of teenagers who just came over from the Dominican, and proceeds to hit like that one kid in Little League who was supposedly 12 but already had enough facial hair that he didn't get carded at the beer store. Yeah. The thing about that guy was that in a couple of years, when he was the same size that he was when he was 12 but all the other kids had caught up with him, he didn't look so good. Which is all basically to say that I want to see what Corey can do in Asheville this year before I put him any higher than this.
18. Hector Gomez, SS Age: 23 Acquired: Signed as free agent in 2004 out of the Dominican Republic 2010 stats (AA Tulsa): 9 G, 35 AB, .314/.314/.429, 4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 0 BB, 8 K
Hector Gomez has tremendous tools, doesn't have great baseball skills, doesn't draw walks, and is injured a lot. See, I could have written that last year (or in 2009, for that matter), then just copied and pasted it this year, because it's still true. Especially the "injured a lot" part. It's possible that some of the reason that Gomez's skills haven't developed is that over the past three years, he's played in just 111 games, and that's counting the 18-game rehab stint he did in Tri-City last season (he hit .246/.293/.391 there, not exactly numbers I want to see from a 22-year-old in the Northwest League, even one who's rehabbing.) Basically, Gomez is the Samuel Deduno of hitters. You never really want to write him off because there always exists a chance that he could be a good player because of the tools, but with all the injuries and the fact that he still hasn't developed all that many skills to go with his tools, you don't really think it's going to happen. It happened to Chris Nelson, but that's a different case: even when Nelson was struggling, and between the injuries, he was showing some real baseball ability. Gomez hasn't really shown that in five years in the minors (really three, since he basically didn't play in 2008 or 2010.) Gomez, on the other hand, is basically the same player he was three years ago. Which isn't good when you're starting with a raw talent and trying to make a baseball player.
19. Josh Slaats, RHP Age: 22 Acquired: 5th round draft pick in 2010 out of Hawaii 2010 stats (SS Tri-City): 8 G, 1-3, 1.95 ERA, 32.1 IP, 42 K, 10 BB
How good was Josh Slaats in 2010? It wasn't until his third professional outing that anybody got a hit off him. Only once in eight outings did he strike out less than a batter an inning. Opposing hitters hit just .174 off him. There's really no statistical measure you can point to with Slaats' 2010 and say "yeah, but..." Dude dominated the Northwest League. And before you can say "Small sample size!" he just threw another mid-90s heater by you. Okay, I'm getting a little worked up here. It WAS a small sample size. The biggest knock you can make against Slaats is that he wasn't exactly dominating WAC hitters (who reportedly aren't as good as Northwest League hitters, but we're investigating that claim) in college last season, but those guys get to use metal bats, which is evidently the only way to get a hit off Josh Slaats. (No word on the rumors that the rest of the NL will decide to switch to metal bats when Slaats gets called up to the majors.) So why's he so low on the list? Yeah, that small sample size thing. But Slaats does have the stuff to keep doing this to hitters; I don't think this is an example of an advanced pitcher with mediocre stuff dominating the low minors. We'll see how he does in Asheville this year.
20. Michael McKenry, C Age: 26 Acquired: 7th round draft pick in 2006 out of Middle Tennessee State 2010 stats (AAA Colorado Springs): 99 G, 347 AB, .265/.328/.424, 23 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, 49 RBI, 32 BB, 77 K
McKenry figures to be the Rockies' backup catcher in 2011, which is a good thing, because it means that (a) Chris Iannetta will get the amount of playing time he deserves, and (b) the Rockies won't be paying $2 million to give Jim Tracy an excuse not to play Iannetta. McKenry plays solid defense behind the plate, has some pop, draws walks, strikes out a little more than I'd like for him to... you know what, this is even better than I thought, because this means that if the Rockies decide to bench Iannetta, they've got another Iannetta on the roster. But unlike Iannetta, who you feel like could put up a solid year if the Rockies decide to just play him instead of benching him every time he goes through a 1-for-20 stretch, McKenry has a profile that screams "backup catcher." Of course, all this just means that the Rockies will somehow find an excuse to send him out to AAA and have Jose Morales be Iannetta's backup. Hell, the Rockies will figure out a way to have Morales be the starter. ]]>
