Each week Studs & Duds will take a look at the best and worst match-ups from around the NFL and choose four players that could mean the difference between fantasy success and failure. Based on the scoring system established by Yahoo!’s Flames and Lames, Studs and Duds continued its cold streak in week 5. After going an abysmal 3-5 last week, S&D’s season record now stands at 23-17. Do you have some of your own Studs and Duds in mind? If so, put your picks and predictions (no explanation for picks necessary) in the comment section below and see if you can beat us at our own game.
Studs
David Garrard / QB / Jacksonville Jaguars - (vs. Rams) Garrard has had one of the more inconsistent seasons of any quarterback so far in 2009. He’s alternated good performances with his bad ones, throwing no touchdowns in weeks one, three and five; and throwing for multiple scores in weeks two and four. The good news for his fantasy owners is that if the pattern stays true, then he’ll throw for multiple scores in week six. Another factor supporting Garrard performing well this week is that he’ll be facing a terrible Rams team that is giving up almost 240 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. If you’re not sure who to start this week, or if you can still get Garrard off your leagues waiver wire, then give the Jacksonville QB a chance and you will be rewarded.
Prediction: 17-31, 220 passing yards, 2 total touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 25 rushing yards
Jeremy Maclin / WR / Philadelphia Eagles - (vs. Raiders) Plenty of Fantasy owners ran out and grabbed Maclin after his breakout game last week against Tampa Bay. If he’s still available in your league then you’ll want to grab him for this week as he gets to face off against a struggling Raiders defense. Oakland’s defense ranks in the middle of the pack in the NFL, but it’s important to note that a few secondary receivers have managed to put up good numbers against the Raiders. Basically, as long as they’re not lined up across from Nnamdi Asomugha, then they can take advantage of Oakland’s secondary. As the number two WR for Philly, Maclin should be free of Asomugha, which means he’ll have plenty of chances to catch balls downfield as the Eagle offense continues to show it has one of the top squads in the NFL.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 96 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
Knowshon Moreno / RB / Denver Broncos - (vs. Chargers) Moreno has probably been the most consistent rookie in the league this year, having put up stud worthy numbers the last three weeks. In the wake of an injury to RB Correll Buckhalter, he’s clearly emerged as the number one back in Denver. At 5-0, the team is on a roll right now and you can be sure that they’ll continue to give their young back plenty of carries to help control the pace of the game. This week Moreno will face a San Diego rush D that is allowing 151 yards per game on the ground. They’ve also given up six rushing touchdowns, which means good things for this power back out of Georgia.
Prediction: 24 carries, 101 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 19 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
Benjamin Watson / TE / New England Patriots - (vs. Titans) Although Watson should not be owned on a week to week basis, his match up against the Titans in week six demands that his talents not go to waste. The Patriots will be coming home after a tough loss to the Broncos last week, and you can count on the fact they’ll be doing their best to take it out on Tennessee. The Titans have allowed the second most passing tds in the NFL behind Detroit, and that means good things for the Patriot offense. When New England gets in the red zone, QB Tom Brady will definitely take plenty of looks at his big TE since WR Randy Moss will most likely be seeing double coverage. His yardage and receptions might not be too high, but Watson will definitely be a lock for at least one score.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 42 yards, 1 touchdown
Duds
Drew Brees / QB / New Orleans Saints - (vs. Giants) After an extremely hot start to the season, Brees has cooled off considerably putting up two dud worthy games in his last two contests. Although New Orleans is coming off a bye week, you shouldn’t count on Brees to break out of his funk against an awfully tough Giants defense. The G-Men currently have the top ranked pass D in the NFL, allowing just under 105 yards per game through the air. They also have 14 sacks on the season, which means Brees will be under constant pressure to get rid of the ball. The rest of the NFL has already seen how Brees can struggle against a New York defense that keeps the pressure on, so you shouldn’t expect a much different line this week. The Giants will run the ball early and often in order to control the pace of the game, which in turn will limit the number of touches Brees will get during the game. Don’t be shocked if Brees sinks your team should you choose to play him.
Prediction: 20-46, 189 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 interception, -2 rushing yards
Vincent Jackson / WR / San Diego Chargers - (vs. Broncos) The only two receiving touchdowns Denver has allowed so far in ‘09 were both in last weeks contest against New England. That’s bad news for Jackson owners who were thinking the Broncos would provide stat-padding games for the Chargers like they did last year. Denver has shocked everyone so far in ’09 and a large part of their success is due to the extremely solid play of their defense. They’re second in the league in sacks at 16, and have six interceptions. They also only allow 171 passing ypg. With Jackson likely facing the revitalized CB Champ Bailey on Sunday, his fantasy owners should temper high expectations. In six career games against the Broncos, Jackson only has two touchdowns, and he’s never faced a Denver D that was quite as good as this years.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 46 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns
Michael Turner / RB / Atlanta Falcons - (vs. Bears) Turner wound up being one of the guys who burned S&D bad last week. He ran for three touchdowns against a 49ers defense that was clearly overachieving the first few weeks. However, this week Turner faces a stout Bears run defense that could prove to be a lot of trouble for his fantasy owners. Last year against the Bears Turner managed just 54 yards on 25 carries. That’s a 2.2 yard average, and it’s also not good for those of you relying on Turner in week 6. Chicago has yet to allow a 100 yard game to an opposing RB, so don’t expect yards to bail you out if you’re stuck playing the Falcons RB. Your only chance is if the Falcons can get close to the goal line. As evidenced by Detroit RB Kevin Smith's two short TD runs in week four, the Bears are susceptible on the goal line, but don’t count on anything easy for Turner and the Falcons this week.
Prediction: 21 carries, 76 rushing yards, 1 reception, 9 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns
Kellen Winslow / TE / Tampa Bay Buccaneers - (vs. Panthers) Winslow is coming off another monster game in week five, but the celebration will be short lived. Tampa Bay will face off against the Panthers this week, and although Carolina has almost been as bad as the Bucs this year, their pass D has been a bright spot. The Panthers rank second in the NFL against the pass, allowing less than 166 passing ypg. With the Bucs passing attack likely to be shut down, Winslow stands to suffer. He’ll most likely be asked to block the Panthers pass rush more often then not, which will lead to a statistically barren game for the TE.
Prediction: 4 receptions, 37 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns
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