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The Pro Football Notebook


September 8, 2010 6:31 AM

Why The Super Bowl Will Be Baltimore-Green Bay

RavensPackers.jpgThe season kicks off tomorrow night when Minnesota goes to New Orleans, so it's time for the Notebook to bring all of the division previews together into one. I believe the Super Bowl will be Baltimore-Green Bay and here's why:

For the case of Green Bay it's a perfect case of a team maturing just as a rival is slipping. You can read the eight division previews just below this to get the details as to the basis for my opinion on who will win each one. In the case of the Packers, I think they're just a little bit better than the Vikings, as even Brett Favre can't be superhuman two years in a row. Aaron Rodgers is fully established and just as important, Dom Capers is fully established running the Packers' 3-4 scheme. It took Green Bay about half a season to really adjust to Capers and that was likely the reason they came up one game short in the North. Now they're ready and they have two outstanding corners in Al Harris and Charles Woodson.

Beyond Minnesota, the principal competition for the NFC title comes from Dallas and New Orleans. Similar to the Vikings, I see New Orleans as having a good year, but not a great one. It's tough to make everything work perfectly for you two seasons in a row. Dallas is a tougher call. They have a ton of talent and Wade Phillips isn't a bad coach...but I have my doubts that he's a championship one. If it came down to Green Bay-Dallas, I'd be inclined to give Mike McCarthy a shot. And I would take Rodgers over Romo in a quarterbacks' battle.

In the AFC, I think Baltimore has even more potential for greatness than Green Bay, but they've had more early season problems. Cornerback Dominique Foxworth is out for the year and future Hall of Fame free safety Ed Reed will miss anywhere from 2-to-4 games. It gave me pause on a pick that I planned to make without hesitation. But I'm dismissing these concerns. Yes, Foxworth's injury hurts, but it's something that most contenders will have to deal with before the year's over. As long as it's not the start of a trend, the Ravens can overcome. Reed can be integrated back into the lineup and be his normal playmaking self by midseason. And Pittsburgh has their own problems in that regard with Ben Roethlisberger.

Indianapolis & San Diego are the two teams given the longest look as a potential challenger. You can read further on in the previews to find out why I'm not sold on the Jets. In the case of Indy, I just see a team that's the NFL equivalent of the Atlanta Braves of 1991-2005. They were a machine, they churned out wins and playoff berths. You always had to keep them in the conversation and they won a championship. But only one. Indy's got their one. For San Diego, I disagree with the media assessment that this is a team loaded with talent and just needs to find a coach who can win the big one. The Charges have some elite players at key spots, not only Philip Rivers, but defensively as well. That alone makes them a contender. But I have doubts over those filling the supporting roles.

That leaves us with Baltimore-Green Bay. Let me step back for one moment and address the issue of bias. Regular readers know I've made reference to living in Baltimore and growing up in Milwaukee. I'm not a fan of either team. I pull for the Redskins, a sore subject here in Charm City. And for an eight-year interim period I lived in Pittsburgh, and choose the Steelers over the Ravens in that heated AFC North rivalry any day. As for Green Bay, I'm on Brett Favre's side in that schism. And Viking coach Brad Childress is a former University of Wisconsin assistant, the hometown team I'm the biggest fan of. Childress was offensive coordinator for Wisky's 1993 Rose Bowl team.

Enough about me. Let's sum it all up. The division winners in the AFC will be Baltimore, Miami, Indianapolis and San Diego, and they'll be joined by New England and Pittsburgh in the playoffs. In the NFC, it's Green Bay, Dallas, New Orleans and Arizona, joined in by Minnesota and San Francisco. For the AFC, the four division winners will be the conference semi-finalists and Baltimore defeats Indy for the title. In the NFC, Minnesota vaults over Arizona in the NFC semis, and Green Bay beats Dallas for conference honors. And in the Super Bowl itself, Baltimore brings home the trophy for the second time in 11 years.

Dan Flaherty is the editor of the Notebook Sports Family, published through the Real Clear Sports blog network, offering daily commentary on baseball and game analysis in college football and the NFL.

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