NFL Sunday TV Previews
Before we get into the Week 15 TV previews, I need to open
with a huge gripe against CBS. How is it, with three weeks to go in the season
and a doubleheader week on your hands that you decide to deliver Cincinnati-St.
Louis to most of the nation in the early time slot? On the surface it makes sense when you see
Tennessee-Indianapolis and Miami-Buffalo as the only other options. But why was
the Jets-Eagles game in Philadelphia moved back to 4:15 EST? Put it back in the
early slot where it belongs and then you've got a full day of AFC East action,
starting with that game and then going to New England-Denver for the late game.
That's my gripe of the week. Now let's dive into the games...
SATURDAY NIGHT:
Dallas-Tampa Bay (8:15 ET, NFL)
The rumor mills are swirling around Tampa head coach Raheem Morris, who looks
to join Miami's Tony Sparano and Jacksonville's Jack Del Rio in making a clean
Florida sweep of coaches getting fired before the season is over. Whatever
happens the next three weeks, Morris almost certainly won't be back in 2012 and
unless Dallas still has a hangover from the loss to the Giants, it's tough to
see how they win here. Josh Freeman hasn't gotten it together throwing the ball
this year and the Buc passing offense languishes near the bottom of the league
in yards-per-attempt. When you consider the Tampa pass defense also rates very
poorly, it spells trouble. Tony Romo should get a lot of time to throw against
a front four that's banged up and doesn't rush the passer well anyway, and from
there to spread the ball around to Dez Bryant, Austin Miles and Jason Witten.
If that happens, Tampa can't keep up. The only thing that give one pause about this
game are natural respect that has to be afforded a home team in the NFL and a
lingering possibility that Freeman could find last year's touch and make this a
game. Possible, but a week reed to grab onto in Week 15.
SUNDAY EARLY
Cincinnati-St. Louis
(CBS)
Can we just concede the win to the Bengals and have these two cities play baseball
instead? The only way the Rams can win is if they first establish Stephen
Jackson running the ball, and the Bengal rush defense is excellent. The pass
defense is beatable, but Sam Bradford is banged up, struggling and coming off a
bad game on Monday Night in Seattle. He may not even play and it's unlikely to
matter. I can see St. Louis causing some problems defensively if they can get
Chris Long and James Hall loose on the edges to pressure the pocket. If that
happens, the rookie Andy Dalton could give them some mistakes. What's more
likely is that Marvin Lewis plays it safe, runs the ball with Cedric Benson
against a soft rush defense and then lets his own D close out the game.
Washington-NY Giants
(Fox)
As a Redskins fan this game is the painful reminder of how far things have fallen
since a 28-14 Week 1 win over the Giants infused September with such hope. It's
the only good game Washington's played all year and New York now smells the NFC
East title after their comeback in Dallas on Sunday night. Where Washington
does match up well here is defending the run and they can force the game into
Eli Manning's hands. The Giant quarterback has answered that challenge ably
this year, and the Washington secondary is beatable. The X-factor in this game,
as if often is in Washington games, is the play of Rex Grossman. The Giant pass
defense is far from unstoppable and if Grossman doesn't self-destruct he can
get into a passing race with Manning and make this a game. But even that
requires the 'Skins to get Jason Pierre-St. Paul blocked on the outside and
that's not something they haven't done well. I'm not feeling good about the game
on Sunday, which is as close as I'll come in a public venue to picking against
my own team.
Green Bay-Kansas City
(Fox)
This game will go to most people between the Mississippi River and California
as the Packers chase history. There's nothing suggesting that the knee injury
to Greg Jennings suffered last week is going to slow Green Bay's determination
to get to 16-0, nor should it. Jennings will be ready for the playoffs and the
Packer receiving corps is deep enough to say "next man up." Keys to watch will
be how Green Bay does in protecting Aaron Rodgers. Not because it will matter
for this game, but because if the Chief defense, currently ranked 13th
in the AFC in sacks, can get to the Packer quarterback, then anyone can. I'm
inclined to think that anyone can and it's the biggest factor that makes Green
Bay's coming playoff run still interesting. As for Sunday, Kyle Orton is
supposed to make his first start as a Chief, and I would imagine several
turnovers are going to be produced by the aggressive Packer defense and even if
you're a betting man and give (-14) to take Green Bay, you should be
comfortable in the second half.
Other games include...
New Orleans-Minnesota: New Orleans is even with San Francisco for the #2 seed and first-round bye in the NFC playoffs and they won't let up here. Drew Brees in a dome is too much for the Viking defense to stop, even allowing Jared Allen his moments rushing the passer. Adrian Peterson is listed as questionable, which I take to mean he will probably play. If he has a good game, Allen gets a couple sacks and they force Brees into some mistakes, an upset is possible. That's not an unrealistic scenario but I wouldn't bet on it.
Seattle-Chicago: Can someone explain to me why the Seahawks are (+3.5) against a team without its quarterback, without its running back and just showed a phenomenal ability to play their way out of a road win last week in Denver? Apparently someone in Las Vegas misses the memo that Seattle's starting to play some good football. They beat the Bears in Soldier Field.
Carolina-Houston: The inability of the Panther defense to hold a lead last week against Atlanta was disheartening. The ability of Cam Newton to put up points makes this a good game and possible upset spot, but I don't see them stopping the Texans' ground game and if they don't control tempo, they don't win on the road.
Tennessee-Indianapolis: I wouldn't be shocked if the Colts finally come up with a win here. I can see Dan Orlovksy playing well and if Matt Hasselbeck's not sharp and it stays close, the home team can steal one. If Indy's going to win a game, this is a good spot to pick them--and they can afford to win at least one and still get Andrew Luck.
Miami-Buffalo: Normally I'd have taken the Dolphins, but firing Tony Sparano leaves one unsure what to think as far as the Dolphins' mindset. Regardless, a nothing game in the AFC East.
SUNDAY LATE
New England-Denver
(4:15 ET, CBS)
Is it going over the top to say that this is Tom Brady's chance to prove he's
in a class with Tim Tebow? Yeah, I thought so. I'm inclined to take the
conventional view that this is where Tebow's magic ride comes to an end and we
see that for all his real strengths as a quarterback, he's not ready to get
into a real passing battle with anyone, much less Brady. But the Denver defense
has some matchup edges that could keep this one close. Von Miller is a terrific
pass rusher on the outside and Brady can be forced into mistakes. The Patriot
running game is mostly non-existent and both Tebow and Willis McGahee should be
able to get some rush yardage of their own. I suspect New England is able to
gradually open up some distance in the third quarter, but if it's within a
score in the fourth quarter, does anyone still want to doubt Tebow?
Other games include...
NY Jets-Philadelphia: I know the Eagles finally got a win last week, but I like the way the Jets are coming together right now and look for Shonn Greene to have a good game running the ball, the defense to get some turnovers and Rex Ryan's team to keep their lead for the last spot in the AFC wild-card race.
Detroit-Oakland: Good game in Oakland, with both teams facing must-win spots. I'm willing to write off Oakland's hideous showing last week in Lambeau as being more about the Packers, although no NFL team should ever play quite that badly. Detroit lacks a rush game, while Oakland has one and that, along with homefield advantage tips the balance.
Cleveland-Arizona: Instead of complaining about getting the Cincy-St. Louis game in the early slot I guess I should be grateful I don't have to see this one.
SUNDAY NIGHT:
Baltimore-San Diego (8:20 ET, NBC)
This game, along with a Week 17 trip to Cincinnati, are Baltimore's big hurdles
to wrapping up a long-sought AFC North title, probable first-round bye and
possible #1 seed in the AFC playoffs. Philip Rivers and the San Diego offense
have been back on track the past couple weeks, but doing it against Buffalo and
Jacksonville aren't the same as doing it against the Ravens. I'm looking for
Baltimore linebacker Terrell Suggs to get a couple sacks and generally make
Rivers' life miserable in the pocket, and if Ryan Matthews can't keep Baltimore
honest by running the ball, it's going to be tough to generate much offense.
Baltimore's rush defense is the best in the AFC if you're curious. I respect
San Diego enough to think this will be a good game at home, but I do expect the
oft-unfocused Ravens to bring their A game to Qualcomm Stadium and the only way
they'll lose is if they get too cute offensively. Ray Rice is capable of
running it down the throats of a soft Charger run defense, and it's imperative
Baltimore stick with that and not be tempted to exploit an equally susceptible
pass defense by having Joe Flacco throw 40 times and turn it into a finesse
game against Rivers. San Diego can win that battle and it's up to John Harbaugh
and his coaching staff not to strategize themselves out of a win.
Dan Flaherty is the editor of www.thesportsnotebook.com


